<article><p class="lead">Having escaped most of the fighting in Yemen's six-year civil war, the Marib province faces a protracted battle as Houthi militants close in and threaten to take over the key oil producing region.</p><p>Marib is the internationally recognised government's last major stronghold in the north of the country. The Houthis have been pushing to capture it for around a year and after intense fighting are now within 30km of the province's eponymous capital city. A major battle is looming, which could lead to the "loss of oil and gas produced at the [state-owned] Safer production facilities next to Marib city, which account for about 8pc of Yemen's fuel needs", according to a report by non-governmental organisation International Crisis Group (ICG). </p><p>The province is home to a central processing unit which connects oil fields in Yemen's block 18. Once the country's most prolific oil producing block, it now produces only 5,000 b/d of light sweet crude, down from around 40,000 b/d before the civil war broke out in 2015. Marib also hosts a 10,000 b/d refinery, a power plant and one of the country's few LPG bottling plants. State-owned Safer produces around 90pc of Yemen's LPG, which is primarily used for cooking. </p><p>According to the ICG, some in the Yemeni government have warned that the facilities might be destroyed to prevent the Houthis from taking them, although this has been strongly denied by the government itself. "If the Marib facilities are disabled or destroyed in fighting, the prices of fuel and LPG, and thus food and water, can only keep going up," the ICG report said.</p><p>Given Yemen's lack of oil and gas processing facilities, the refinery and LPG plant represent key sources of revenue for whoever controls them. Under Houthi control, the additional revenue would give the militant group even further political leverage. And success in Marib may convince them to push for further territorial gains, including Shabwa, another key oil province. The majority of Shabwa crude comes from block S2, which is operated by Austria's OMV and restarted production in 2018. Output is trucked to an export pipeline at block 4 and then pumped to the Bir Ali export terminal, about 200km away on the southern coast. </p><p>A lengthy and destructive battle for Marib would increase the risk of violence spreading across Yemen. In 2018, the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement brought an end to an anti-Houthi offensive to recapture the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, but there have been calls from some in the Yemeni government to withdraw from that agreement. </p><p>"For their part, the Houthis appear to perceive that they are in a win-win situation," the ICG said. "If they take Marib, they will have won a strategic prize, in effect ending the war for the north, fatally weakening the Hadi government in outsiders' eyes and bolstering the quasi-state they have been building by tapping into Marib's oil and gas wealth."</p><h2>Saudi concessions</h2><p>If the Houthis call a halt to their move on Marib, they would expect concessions in return from Saudi Arabia, which provides the lion's share of military support for Yemen's government. <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2184538">Support from the US</a> for increased Saudi military action against the Houthis now looks out of the question. Earlier this month, US president Joe Biden announced a complete halt to offensive support for the war and a temporary freeze of arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It has also taken back its designation of the Houthis as a terrorist group, citing the listing's expected humanitarian harm. </p><p>The US State Department has called on the Houthis to refrain from capturing Marib, but US officials concede that affecting the group's decision requires direct diplomacy with the Houthis or their backers in Iran — and the US is yet to begin outreach to Tehran.</p><p class="bylines"><i>By Adal Mirza</i></p></article>
