<article><p class="lead">Installed coal-fired power generation capacity in Malaysia is expected to decrease by 4.2GW by 2039, reducing the solid fuel's share of total power capacity to 22pc, from 37pc this year. </p><p>Malaysia's Suruhanjaya Tenega Energy Commission released on 24 March the country's latest generation development plan covering 2021-39. The plan was established based on a moderate economic recovery scenario, where the country's peak power demand is projected to increase by 0.9pc a year during 2021-30 and by a further 1.7pc/yr through 2039.</p><p>But thermal-based generation capacity is expected to fall from 82pc currently to 69pc by end of the planning period, with coal's share falling to as low as 20pc in 2036. </p><p>The Malaysian government plans to retire around 7GW of coal-fired capacity by 2039, with Kapar Energy Venture's 1.5GW plant retiring in 2029, Tenaga Nasional Berhad's Janamanjung's 2GW plant retiring in 2030, Tanjung Bin Power's 2.1GW facility in 2031 and Jimah Energy Venture's 1.4GW unit in 2033.</p><p>But the government plans to build around 2.8GW of new coal-fired capacity, with two 700MW units expected to join Malaysia's coal-fired fleet in 2031 and a further 1.4GW in 2037. </p><p>Malaysia's current power plant development plan indicates that coal-fired capacity will remain flat in the near term, while <i>Argus</i>' consulting division is projecting a 19pc — or 7mn t — year-on-year growth in Malaysia's 2021 imports, according to the latest Seaborne Coal Outlook report. Malaysia's seaborne coal receipts edged lower by 5,000t on the year to 38mn t in 2020, according to the same report. </p><p>Malaysia currently has around 13.5GW of installed coal-fired capacity and its monthly coal-fired power generation averaged 9.3GW in 2020, Malaysia's Grid System Operator data show. </p><h3>Renewables to support power demand growth </h3><p class="lead">To meet the increasing power demand in Malaysia as well as the national emissions target, the government revised its target for renewables' share of the capacity mix to 31pc by 2025, from the previous goal of 20pc.</p><p>The 31pc target is equivalent to around 8.5GW of renewables capacity, meaning 1.2GW of additions are needed by 2025. These will consist of 1.1GW of solar and 80MW of non-solar capacity.</p><p>The Malaysian government pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity of GDP by 35pc by 2030 compared with the 2005 level, or by 45pc with support from developed nations, as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. </p><p>Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund projects Malaysia's real GDP will jump by 7pc this year, compared with negative growth of 6pc in 2020. </p><p class="bylines">By Evelyn Lee </p></article>
