<article><p class="lead">Japan will likely achieve its target of a lower 26pc share for coal in its energy mix by 2030 if it moves ahead with its plan to phase out inefficient coal-fired plants, the country's trade and industry ministry (Meti) said in its latest policy draft for coal power generation. </p><p>Japan's coal-fired power output will fall to 26pc in the country's energy mix in the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year, meeting a target first announced in 2015, according to the draft interim report released on 9 April during a discussion held by the coal power working group under Meti. The coal ratio will be 5pc lower than 31pc in 2019-20. </p><p>The phase-out is targeted at units that are not equipped with the latest clean coal technology, such as ultra-super critical (USC) and integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) infrastructure.</p><p>Output capacity of coal-fired power plants using less efficient super-critical and sub-critical technology, which are operated by major utilities, is expected to fall to 9GW across 20 units in 2030-31, down from 16.1GW at 39 units in 2019-20, according to Meti's survey. But the utilities' USC and IGCC capacity is predicted to increase to 27GW across 35 units in 2030-31, up from 22.67GW at 30 units in 2019-20. </p><p>Coal-fired power units operated by other power producers and manufacturers, most of which are deemed to be inefficient, is forecast to increase to 12GW across 90 units in 2030-31, up from 9.14GW at 80 units in 2019-20, Meti said. </p><p>The predictions take into account phase-out plans submitted by Japanese coal power operators, although details of each firm's scrapping schedule have been undisclosed. Major utilities and other generators that own large-scale power plants, which account for around 80pc of Japan's coal-fired capacity, are obligated to report their latest phase-out plans to Meti every year. </p><p>Meti in July last year proposed a plan to <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2120188">start discussing</a> scrapping inefficient coal-fired power plants over the next 10 years to step up efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Japan's 2050 carbon-neutral target set by prime minister Yoshihide Suga last October has further accelerated efforts to reduce coal power capacity in the country. </p><p>Meti has decided to introduce a new thermal efficiency target exclusive to coal-fired power plants in April 2022, to accelerate the phasing out of inefficient coal-fed capacity. The country's power producers will need to <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2198823">achieve more than 43pc efficiency</a> for their coal-fired plants by 2030, such as through increasing the efficiency of a coal power unit, reducing utilisation of ageing units, increasing the co-firing ratio of cleaner fuels such as biomass and ammonia, as well as scrapping inefficient units.</p><p>Japan's efficiency push in the coal power industry may drive up demand for alternative fuels such as LNG and biomass. The country's LNG demand may <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2171624">increase by 22mn t/yr</a> if all insufficient coal-fired units are replaced by new gas-fired units, according to government-affiliated think-tank the Institute of Energy Economics Japan. </p><p>Japan's biomass power association (BPA) is also aiming to <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2198814">switch 9,840MW</a>, or 40pc, of the potential closure of 25GW of ageing coal-fired capacity to biomass-fed capacity during the 2030s, although output from biomass-dedicated plants are likely to fall by 20pc compared with coal-fired generators.</p><p class="bylines">By Motoko Hasegawa</p></article>
