<article><p class="lead">Cuba projects a seventh consecutive year of falling crude production in 2021, aggravating a fuel deficit that allied supplier Venezuela has not been able to offset.</p><p>This year the island will produce around 44,700 b/d, down by 6pc from 2020 and by 23pc from 2014, according to official statistics and other Cuban government sources.</p><p>Cuba will <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2237955?keywords=cuba">import more crude and products</a> in 2021 than it did in 2020 to meet demand of 160,000 b/d, economy minister Alejandro Gil said in December 2020, without giving import volumes.</p><p>State-owned oil company Cupet, which operates the 65,000 b/d Cienfuegos refinery, referred queries about imports to the foreign trade ministry, which routinely declines to comment.</p><p>Cuba has <a href="https://www2.argusmedia.com/en/news/2241554-venezuela-talks-resuming-as-regional-tide-turns">relied on Venezuela</a> for most of its oil supply under an opaque barter agreement signed in 2000. Although Venezuelan state-owned PdV continues to shuttle crude, fuel oil and other products to Cuba, volumes have fallen because of Venezuela's own deteriorated output, a trend made worse by US oil sanctions. </p><p>Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba averaged 58,780 b/d in January-June 2021, according to Venezuela's political opposition that blames Caracas for giving away Venezuelan oil to Havana despite acute fuel shortages at home. The figure could not be independently verified.</p><p>Cuba produces high-sulfur crude that is used to fire Soviet-era power plants prone to breakdowns, partly because of difficulties accessing spare parts because of US sanctions and a lack of hard currency. Lengthy blackouts are common, and worsened in the first half of this year.</p><p>Power generation in 2020 was 2.7GW, 7.9pc down on 2019, according to government data.</p><p>The island has 5.87GW of installed generating capacity, of which 3.2GW is operational, according to state power company UNE.</p><p>The capacity includes three thermal power barges berthed in the northern port of Mariel west of Havana. Turkish contractor Karpowership installed the barges last year.</p><p class="bylines">By Canute James</p></article>
