<article><p class="lead">Australia is likely to start producing hydrogen from grid-connected electrolysers in the July 2024 to June 2025 fiscal year and could ramp up output enough to meet 17pc of total power demand within five years, the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) said.</p><p>Domestic production of hydrogen from grid-connected electrolysers lifts total power demand in the country's National Electricity Market (NEM) to around 250TWh by 2030-31, under the Hydrogen Superpower scenario in Aemo's 2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report published today. This compares with around 175TWh by the same date under Aemo's central scenario.</p><p>Exported hydrogen is expected to account for the largest share of the increase in NEM power demand to 2030-31 and beyond. Demand will be further boosted by domestic steel production fuelled by hydrogen, or green steel, as well as domestic hydrogen consumption and the electrification of other fuel sources, such as electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines, Aemo said.</p><p>Aemo included <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2239427">hydrogen demand in its annual ESOO report</a> this year for the first time. There are more than 10 hydrogen projects in Australia that are proposed to have electrolysers with power capacity of 100MW or more, and many more at a smaller scale, Aemo said.</p><p>"The potential development and connection of new electrical loads, through consumers switching from other fuels to electricity or through new industry, may result in significant growth in electricity consumption," it said. </p><p>By 2050, hydrogen-related demand could be five times larger than current NEM consumption. Around 150TWh of new underlying domestic electricity consumption is projected purely from transport and industrial electrification by that date.</p><p>Most additional electricity consumption for hydrogen production will largely be for export as ammonia, although the potential for domestic hydrogen use and a large green steel industry is a growing long-term opportunity, Aemo said. </p><p>In total, electricity consumption increases by 73TWh by 2030-31 Hydrogen Superpower scenario, taking it around 40pc above current NEM consumption. By contrast, consumption falls by 4TWh or 2pc by 2030-31 under Aemo's central scenario.</p><p>The largest new electricity consumers in the Hydrogen Superpower scenario are electrolysers, which create green hydrogen as an export commodity. In this scenario, hydrogen exports grow to 137PJ by 2030 then accelerate rapidly to more than 1,800PJ by 2050 – a similar level to current LNG exports from Queensland, where three LNG plants have a nameplate capacity of 25.3mn t/yr.</p><p class="bylines">By Kevin Morrison</p></article>
