Almost halve emissions by 2030 for 1.5°C goal: UN

Commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions set out in updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate agreement remain well below what is needed to limit global warming even to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the UN said today.

Global GHG emissions must be reduced by an additional 28 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) annually until 2030 to cap warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, the UN said, equivalent to almost halving current GHG emissions.

Scientists have warned that going beyond this level of warming would increase the frequency and intensity of climate impacts such as heatwaves and storms, and cause increased sea level rise.

Even limiting warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the minimum aim under the Paris climate agreement, would necessitate cutting GHG emissions by 13 gigatonnes CO2e annually over the period, the UN warned in its Emissions Gap Report, which assesses the difference between where emissions are heading under current policies and where they need to be to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

As it stands, updated NDC pledges combined with other mitigation pledges have reduced predicted emissions in 2030 by just 7.5pc compared with old commitments, putting global warming on track for a 2.7°C rise from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Predicted emissions in 2030 must be reduced by 30pc to meet the 2°C limit, or 55pc for 1.5°C, the report finds.

And net-zero pledges could reduce global warming by a further 0.5°C but only if implemented effectively, the UN warns, noting that net-zero targets are so far "highly ambiguous" in key areas including the sectors and emissions covered and the intended use of carbon offsets.

Even when pledges made since the finalisation of the report are taken into account, the current trajectory remains "clearly" above 2°C, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres confirmed today.

Guterres urged countries that have still not submitted their updated NDCs to do so either before or during this year's UN Cop 26 climate conference, which will take place in Glasgow on 1-12 November. These commitments should be aligned with the 1.5°C goal, he added.

Countries must come to Glasgow with clear, time-bound and front-loaded plans, Guterres said, adding that "the emissions gap is the result of a leadership gap".

The UN expects global GHG emissions to rebound almost to 2019 levels this year, after they fell by 5.4pc in 2020 in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report points out that most countries have so far missed the opportunity to use Covid-19 recovery spending to support decarbonisation, estimating that only 17-19pc of recovery investments up to May 2021 are likely to reduce GHG emissions.

By Victoria Hatherick

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