<article><p class="lead">Russian crude and condensate production will grow by between 3-5pc in 2022, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said today.</p><p>In an interview with Rossiya 24 television, Novak said liquids output would be in the range of 540mn-550mn t, compared with 524mn t expected this year. Using <i>Argus'</i> 7.3 bl/t conversion, this puts projected production at 10.8mn-11mn b/d next year, compared with 10.5mn b/d in 2021.</p><p>Condensate accounts for around 7-8pc of Russian liquids production in tonnes, which means the country's crude production could amount to 500mn-509mn t next year, or 9.9mn-10.1mn b/d.</p><p>The forecast looks modest compared with what Russia has agreed under the Opec+ deal — the country's output quota for January 2022 is 10.12mn b/d and a further rise is likely beyond that. Opec+ plans to gradually lift the restrictions on output that it introduced soon after the start of Covid-19 pandemic. Before the current deal started in May 2020, Russia was producing around 10.5mn b/d of crude, and Novak said earlier this year he expected Russia to bring oil production to pre-pandemic level in May 2022.</p><p>Moreover, Russia's baseline in the Opec+ deal is to grow to 11.5mn b/d in May 2022, to reflect its parity in the agreement with Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Russia exceeded its Opec+ quota in each of the first 11 months of this year by around 85,000 b/d, <i>Argus</i> estimates. The agreement restricts only crude production and does not put limits on condensate output.</p><p>Russia's major oil producers Rosneft, Gazpromneft and Lukoil have all said recently they had brought back into operation most of their spare oil capacities, which they temporarily shut when the Opec+ deal began. They plan some oil production growth next year but say this will depend on productivity of new wells, including those drilled in 2021.</p><p>Russian month-on-month rise in crude and condensate output slowed to 0.3pc in November and <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2283467">remained sluggish in the first two weeks of December</a>, suggesting producers are close to the limits of their spare capacity.</p><p class="bylines">By Anastasia Krasinskaya</p></article>
