Costs, renewables drive global energy investment: IEA

  • Market: Biofuels, Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Hydrogen, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 22/06/22

Global energy investment will rise by more than 8pc in 2022 to $2.4 trillion, boosted by an increase in clean energy spending, but almost half of the increase is linked to higher costs, the IEA said today in its World Energy Investments 2022 report.

It expects investment in clean energy, including in energy efficiency, to surpass $1.4 trillion and account for almost three-quarters of the overall rise. While this represents an annual growth rate of 12pc, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said it is "not strong enough to lift us out of the current energy crisis." The IEA said it falls short of what is required to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and is concentrated in China and in advanced economies.

China invested the most in clean energy in 2021 at $380bn, followed by the EU with $260bn and the US with $215bn.

Clean energy investment is mainly driven by the power sector, where renewables, storage and grids account for 80pc of spending, while investment in oil, gas, coal and "low-carbon fuel" remains below 2019 levels. Investment in the power sector is the closest to a sustainable trajectory, the IEA said, but it put the need for annual spend of more than $2 trillion this decade to reach net zero by 2050.

Spending on newer technologies such as battery storage, low-emissions hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains lower in a relative sense, but growth rates are high. The IEA said plans for around 130 CCS projects in 20 countries were announced in 2021.

Cost inflation effects

The IEA projects global investment in fuel supply, including oil, gas, coal and low-emissions fuels, will be around $850bn in 2022, higher on the year but marginally lower than 2019. It projects spending on upstream oil and gas at just over $400bn — higher than the past two years but below 2019, and with most of this down to increased costs.

It said most upstream spending will be on existing fields, although investment in new fields is on an upward trend.

The IEA projects that oil and gas industry investment in clean energy will double in 2022, led by European majors, and primarily focused on wind. High energy prices "are generating an unprecedented windfall", it said, with estimated oil and gas producer profit at a record $4 trillion in 2022, double on the year.

This presents a "once-in-a-generation opportunity for producer economies to fund diversification activities and for the major oil and gas companies to deliver more diversified spending," the IEA said, with the forecast additional $2 trillion able to fund almost a decade of investment in low-emissions fuels — such as biogas and hydrogen — and CCS under the IEA's net zero by 2050 scenario.

"The world needs oil and gas companies to be part of the solution," Birol said. It is the task of governments to work out "how these windfall revenues can be channelled into clean energy spending," with windfall taxes one way to do so, he said.

Energy security colours investment decisions

But "fuel supply investment is currently viewed through an energy security lens," the IEA said, and the global energy crisis has spurred investment in the expansion of coal supply in emerging Asia-Pacific countries. Around $105bn was invested in the coal supply chain in 2021, a rise of 10pc on the year, and the IEA expects a further 10pc rise this year, largely driven by China — which is rapidly adding to its domestic coal-fired power generation — and India.

Birol said this is an "alarm bell", but should be a temporary change.

Globally, final investment decisions (FIDs) on unabated fossil fuel power generation decreased in 2021, mostly because of a reduction in natural gas-fired capacity. But FIDs on coal power generation held broadly steady to 2020 levels, with around 30GW approved in 2021 mostly in China and southeast Asia, the report showed. FIDs for renewable power capacity hit a new record high at just over $300bn, with wind and solar making up the vast majority.

Cost inflation, including in supply chains, may limit private sector spending, the IEA said. Surging prices for critical minerals are likely to force costs up for clean technologies such as batteries and wind and solar, it said.

Sustainable or 'green' financing remains concentrated in advanced economies, IEA data show. Sustainable debt of more than $1.7 trillion was issued in 2021, with most green bonds funding renewables and low-carbon buildings and transport. But the organisation recommended more green finance be directed at emerging economies. It wants taxonomies and climate reporting to be standardised, and said some investment must be channelled towards carbon-intensive projects, to enable the transition.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
28/03/24

'Weeks, months' to reopen Baltimore waterway: professor

'Weeks, months' to reopen Baltimore waterway: professor

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — It could take weeks or even months to clear debris and reopen the waterway under the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, according to a engineering professor at the nearby Johns Hopkins University. As of Wednesday, there was no official timetable for the reopening of the Port of Baltimore after a major highway bridge over the Patapsco River was hit in the early hours of 26 March by a container ship and collapsed, with the debris and ship blocking the waterway. "I'd be shocked if it's weeks, but I don't think it'll take even a year" to clear the waterway, structural engineer and Johns Hopkins professor Benjamin Schafer said Wednesday. He expects the rebuild of the bridge to take significantly longer. "I've lived through quite a few civil infrastructure projects and they're rarely less than 10 years. So I think that's what we're looking at," Schafer said. He noted that it took five years to build the original Francis Scott Key Bridge and seven years to repair the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in Tampa Bay, Florida, after a similar collapse in 1980. Still, "this is definitely not a national supply chain crisis," John Hopkins operations management professor Tinglong Dai said Wednesday. "The effect will be mostly local, mostly minimal and mostly temporary." The bridge collapse and port closure is also unlikely to trigger a global supply chain crisis, he said. The Port of Baltimore is an important but "niche" port specializing in automobile imports and exports, Dai added. "The supply chain has evolved...I have already seen a lot of rerouting happening." Automakers started adjusting their supply routes away from the top port for US vehicle imports the day of the collapse, including General Motors, Ford and Mercedes-Benz. Baltimore is also a major port for coal exports, which may start to shift to terminals to the south in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Freight rates for ships that carry coal could see increases in global markets Other commodities like asphalt and caustic soda that move through the port will see challenges, while organic agriculture imports may see less problems due to seasonal flows. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Read more
News

Baltimore probe includes potential contaminated fuel


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Baltimore probe includes potential contaminated fuel

New York, 28 March (Argus) — Federal authorities are examining whether the containership that crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, was burning contaminated marine fuel at the time of the incident. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said it will collect a sample of the fuel on board the 116,851-dwt container vessel Dali as part of its investigation into why the ship lost power and hit the bridge support early on 26 March, taking down the span. "That sample will be taken, and we will analyze the quality, any sort of contaminants, we will look at viscosity," NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said this week. "That will be part of our investigation." Shipboard power is generally generated by turbines connected to the same engines driving propulsion. There are a number of issues related to fuel that could have led to a loss of power on the ship, according to Wajdi Abdmessih, chief executive at Seahawk Services, a marine fuel testing company based in New Jersey. The fuel on the ship could have been contaminated, as was the case last year when contaminated very low-sulphur fuel oil was found on a number of ships fueld through a Houston, Texas, bunkering operation, or it could have been a compatibility issue with the vessel's engine, where the fuel was not optimized for the equipment. "If the vessel switches between different types of fuels, compatibility and stability issues could occur, which may cause a problem with the engine," Abdmessih said. "Unstable fuel could cause increased sludging and high sediment, which could clog the filter and cause fuel starvation and engine downturns." Singapore-based Synergy Marine Group, which manages Dali , said it is taking part of this investigation but declined to comment possible causes of the accident, including possible fuel contamination. The pilots on board the vessel lost control because of a loss of propulsion, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), which is assisting in the investigation because Dali was sailing under the Singapore flag. An issue with the ship's propulsion and auxiliary machinery was discovered during its June 2023 inspection in San Antonio, Chile , according to Equasis, a vessel information database. The problem involved the vessel's gauges and thermometers, according to the data. Its most recent inspection was in September 2023, but there are no indications of issues from the inspection. The vessel's next inspection was due in June 2024, the MPA said. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mosaic plant sustains minor damage from fire


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Mosaic plant sustains minor damage from fire

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — Florida-based phosphate and potash fertilizer producer Mosaic anticipates limited damage to a production plant near Tampa and minimal disruption to operations in the coming weeks following a brushfire on Monday. The brushfire ignited Monday evening during routine maintenance near Mosaic's Riverview phosphate production facility and was initially contained before rekindling Tuesday morning because of heavy winds. The fire was fully under control by Tuesday afternoon, according to local first responders. Mosaic told Argus on Tuesday the fire was not considered a threat to the facility initially, but now expects the plant sustained "limited damage to ancillary operations" and the impact could last between four to six weeks. The Riverview plant has a production capacity of 1.8mn metric tonnes (t) of processed phosphate products, and produces 30,000 t/week, according to Mosaic. The facility was producing phosphates primarily for exports to Brazil at the time of the fire, the company added. Smoke was observed Monday from the fire as a result of foam retardants used by local fire officials to cool the high-density polyethylene pipes. Polyethylene gas piping is often used for natural gas distribution. Natural gas flows delivered to the plant fell slightly Wednesday at 2.42mn cf/d, down from 2.45mn cf/d on Monday, once the fire was extinguished, according to data from Florida Gas Transmission. Flows at the plant on Thursday rebounded to 2.45mn cf/d, in line with expectations that affected phosphate output at the plant should only be temporary. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Long-term contracts needed to stabilise gas prices: MET


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Long-term contracts needed to stabilise gas prices: MET

London, 28 March (Argus) — Germany and Europe need more LNG and business-to-business long-term contracts to even out supply shocks and stabilise gas prices, even as demand is unlikely to reach historical heights again, chief executive of Swiss trading firm MET's German subsidiary Joerg Selbach-Roentgen told Argus . Long-term LNG contracts have a "stabilising effect" on prices when "all market participants know there is enough coming", Selbach-Roentgen said. He is not satisfied with the amount of long-term LNG supply contracted into Germany, arguing that stabilisation remains important even now that the market has "cooled down" after the price shocks of 2022. Long-term contracts are important for the standing of German industry, Selbach-Roentgen said — not to be reliant on spot cargoes is a matter of global competitiveness for the industrial gas market, he said. The chief executive called for more long-term contracts in other areas as well, such as for industrial offtakers, either fixed price or index-driven. Since long-term LNG contracts are concluded between wholesalers and producers, the latter need long-term planning security for their projects, which usually leads to terms of about 20 years. But long-term LNG contracts in general do not represent a major risk for MET nor for industrial offtakers in Europe, Selbach-Roentgen said. LNG is a more flexibly-structured "solution" to expected demand drops in regard to the energy transition as the tail end can be shipped to companies on other continents such as Asia if European demand wanes, he said. Gas demand is not likely to recover to "historical heights" again, mostly driven by industrials "jumping ship", Selbach-Roentgen said. When talking to large industrial companies, the discussion is often about the option that they might divert investments away from the German market as the price environment is "not attractive enough" for them any longer in terms of planning security, the chief executive said. This trend started out of necessity in reaction to the price spikes but may now be connected to longer-term "strategic" considerations, he said. In addition, industrial decarbonisation — as well as industrial offtakers' risk aversion because of the volatile gas market following Russian gas supply curtailments — leads companies to invest less into longer-term gas dependencies in Germany, Selbach-Roentgen said. In addition, MET advocates for a green gas blending obligation of 1-2pc green gas or hydrogen, in line with legislative drafts under discussion by the German government. This has already met with interest by offtakers, despite uncertainties around availability and prices, and would provide a regulatory framework that allows firms to prepare for the energy transition, Selbach-Roentgen said. By Till Stehr and Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Stalling climate finance an energy security risk : WRI


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Stalling climate finance an energy security risk : WRI

London, 28 March (Argus) — The "best bet" to achieving global energy security is through mitigation funding and multilateral cooperation, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). WRI highlighted that governments are funding more domestic renewable energy projects but have increased oil and gas production in the name of "energy security" at home in the years following the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The recent rebrand of energy transition funding to energy security funding has allowed some developed nations to justify domestic oil and gas licences and drag their feet on multilateral financial commitments. This is causing "real worry" among climate-vulnerable developing nations, WRI chief executive Ani Dasgupta said. He said that although the initial "shock" to the world's energy markets after the invasion of Ukraine "quickly went away", it has triggered "real worry among poorer countries that when push comes to shove, it won't be an even game, or have a fair outcome." Developing countries have long complained about the lack of access to climate funding. Richer nations have only recently met the $100bn/yr target in climate finance to developing countries agreed in 2009, while discussions on setting a new climate finance goal for 2025 at Cop 29 in Baku in November could prove difficult. President of the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) Denis Sassou-Nguesso said last year that the $100bn/yr in climate financing to developing countries promised by rich countries "never reached us", adding that the annual UN Cop climate conferences have become little more than a talking shop. "Just after the invasion of Ukraine, every country started to think about energy security," Dasgupta said. "In theory, good things could have happened, countries could have concluded that their best bet to getting energy security is by going renewable". But it was not the case in key consumer countries or regions, Dasgupta pointed out. China bought the majority of Russian gas following the EU's withdrawal, he said, and has since upped production at coal-fired power stations despite an "extraordinary" acceleration towards renewables set for 2023-28, according to Paris-based energy watchdog IEA . In Europe, the UK and Norway continue to award new oil and gas licences . "In the US, the fossil fuel lobby argues that the best route to energy security is to invest more in fossil fuels". But the best route is to invest in more renewables, he said. "Even if the US produces a large amount of oil and gas, it is still a traded commodity, and so you have to pay a price for it that is set globally." The US special presidential co-ordinator for energy security Amos Hochstein has also suggested in September that a widening climate finance gap could ultimately threaten global security. "We have seen the percentage of dollars spent on the energy transition outside the OECD, in developing and middle income countries actually go down instead of up…" By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more