Reports warn on UK and Scotland’s net zero progress

Scotland has no clear plan for reaching its ambitious net zero goals, UK parliamentary advisory body the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today, while classification society DNV found that the UK is not on track to reach its net zero by 2050 target.

The Scottish government "urgently needs to provide a quantified plan" setting out how it will hit its net zero by 2045 target, as well as its interim goals, the CCC said. "A very rapid reduction in emissions is required", and there is "a significant risk of Scotland failing to meet its annual targets in the 2020s and the interim 2030 target", the CCC found. The committee measured progress against Scotland's eight "key milestones", with half rated as "significantly off track", two as "slightly off track" and the others not currently measurable.

Scotland hit its interim emissions reduction target for 2020. It cut emissions in 2020 by 59pc compared with 1990 levels, surpassing its target of a 56pc decrease. But this was largely because of travel restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, "without which it is unlikely the target would have been met", the CCC said. It cautioned that targets this decade will be "much harder to achieve as emissions rebound".

The Scottish government has set in law a 2030 emissions reduction goal of 75pc, again from a 1990 baseline, but this is "extremely challenging", the CCC said. It suggested the target be scaled back to a 65-67pc reduction, which is "feasible and consistent".

The Scottish government should develop policies to reduce emissions from buildings, including low-carbon heat sources, as well as ramp up decarbonisation in the transport sector, the committee said. It also recommended that Scotland increase work to restore its peatlands — 80pc of which are degraded. And "finding a way to co-operate with the UK government effectively is key", it said, given that powers for key areas such as electricity, energy supply, shipping and aviation are not devolved.

Engineered carbon removals "play a substantial role in delivering net zero in Scotland", but none currently exist, the CCC found. Detailed plans are needed, it said. Scotland aims to reach 3.8mn t/yr of engineered CO2 removals by 2030, roughly two-thirds of the whole-UK target of 5.6mn t/yr for the same timeframe.

UK must clarify policy to reach net zero: DNV Many of the CCC's findings for Scotland were in line with the UK Energy Transition Outlook 2022 , released on 6 December by classification society and assurance provider DNV.

The UK will not meet its legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050 and will also fall short of its 2030 commitments under its nationally determined contribution (NDC), DNV said. It forecasts that the UK will reduce emissions by 55pc by 2030 and by 85pc by 2050, both from a 1990 baseline. The UK's NDC aims to cut emissions by 68pc by 2030.

But the country could meet its net zero target if it makes "clear early policy decisions", particularly around decarbonising the transport and heating sectors, DNV found. Shifting the UK to net zero "is affordable" and will result in significantly lower bills for consumers by 2050, it said.

UK power generation will rise from 310TWh/yr in 2021 to 770TWh/yr in 2050, DNV projected. And increased electrification will ensure that, though power demand and output will lift, final energy demand will reduce by around a quarter in 2050, compared to 2021. This is due to efficiency improvements associated with electrification, it said. "Low-carbon sources" will make up 70pc of primary energy supply in 2050, up from 20pc in 2021, DNV forecast.

By Georgia Gratton

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