<article><p class="lead">The vessel queue outside Australia's largest thermal coal port of Newcastle in New South Wales (NSW) has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years, as mining firms increase shipments to make up a 21mn t deficit during January-November compared with the same period last year. </p><p>There were nine ships waiting outside Newcastle on 14 December, down from 21 at the end of November and a peak of 48 at the end of July, as coal mining firms take advantage of a drier start to the month to make up for sales lost during a wet 2022. The port may have to pause from 15 December with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warning of dangerous surf conditions along the NSW south and central coast.</p><p>Initial shipping figures suggest that Newcastle shipped around half of the total achieved in November in the first 11 days of December, implying it might be on track to end a three-month run of loading around 10mn t/month or below.</p><p>Newcastle loaded 9.44mn t of coal in November, down from 10.08mn t in October and from 12.16mn t in November 2021, according to the latest port data. It loaded 122.76mn t during January-November, down from 143.68mn t in the same period of 2021 and from 149.7mn t in the first eleven months of the peak year of 2019.</p><p>The La Nina weather pattern, which brings above average rainfall to the east coast, is set to persist into January or February 2023 but two other weather systems that also increase the chances of rain are becoming less influential, according to the BoM. The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole has ended and the Madden-Julian Oscillation is weakening, according to the BoM's tropical climate update issued on 13 December.</p><p>Argus assessed high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal at $410.17/t fob Newcastle on 9 December, down from a peak of $444.59/t on 9 September. It assessed lower grade 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal at $133.39/t fob Newcastle on 9 December, down from $200.81/t on 2 September and from a peak of $287.15/t on 11 March. The heat-adjusted premium for higher grade thermal coal on a NAR 6,000 basis was $264.65/t on 9 December, up from the previous record high of $219.87/t on 2 September and from $177.93/t on 1 July.</p><p>Argus last assessed semi-soft coking coal prices at $208.80/t fob Australia on 13 December, down from $260.40/t on 31 October but up from $178/t on 1 August.</p><p class="bylines">By Jo Clarke</p></article>
