IPCC focuses attention on fossil fuel phase-down

The phase-down of fossil fuels is firmly in the spotlight, as ministers restart climate talks and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its sixth synthesis report, warning of the effect that continued fossil fuel burning will have on global carbon budgets.

Net zero will call for "a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems", the IPCC said. The synthesis report is the final chapter of the IPCC's sixth round of scientific research into climate change — the last before the key climate target milestone of 2030 — and its summary for policy makers set out the effects from continued fossil fuel use. Projected CO2 emissions from "existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C", the IPCC said. And projected CO2 emissions "over the lifetime of existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure, if historical operating patterns are maintained and without additional abatement" are equal to the remaining carbon budget for 2°C of warming, it found.

But even the IPCC's summary was subject to wrangling from countries over the content, reminiscent of final negotiations over the UN Cop 27 climate summit text. Think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) set out the discussions in its Earth Negotiations Bulletin . EU member countries, Norway and the US pushed to include the "reduction of fossil fuel use as the main strategy for reaching net zero". Denmark and the US lobbied to "show reduction pathways for coal, oil and gas", while Finland asserted that fossil fuels are the root cause of global warming. But leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia "strongly opposed" this, according to the IISD's bulletin .

Although the IPCC's full scientific report is not open to input, the content of its summary for policy makers must be agreed on by delegates. This is "to ensure policy relevance and to build ownership", senior policy adviser on climate and energy at environmental organisation Greenpeace Kaisa Kosonen told Argus . But the wording "won't change the underlying scientific facts", she added.

Lines in the sand The positions are unchanged from the Cop 27 final text negotiations, although the EU recently updated its external policy position. Members are now calling for a global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels with a transitional role for natural gas.

Last week's Copenhagen Climate Ministerial was the first high-level meeting since Cop 27. Talks were held in private, but outgoing and incoming Cop presidents — oil and gas producers Egypt and the UAE — as well as host Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen broadly emphasised the need for climate action. But only Jorgensen referred to "the pressing issues of phasing out the use of fossil fuels".

And Denmark, with EU member states, pushed for the use of "zero-emission technologies" in the IPCC summary, in reference to the systems transitions required for net zero. But, mirroring the Cop 27 final text, Saudi Arabia opposed this, and "low or zero-emission technologies" was eventually used, IISD's bulletin reported. There is no official definition of "low-emission" technology, which led to concern over its inclusion in the Cop 27 agreement.

Saudi Arabia's views were further at odds with other delegates, as it repeatedly called for the inclusion of abatement technologies, including CO2 removals, urging "its necessity for achieving net negative CO2 emissions". Although its attitude towards CO2 removals as a silver bullet saw equal pushback from much of the EU, varying support from China, Switzerland and Japan suggests that the technology will be a key and controversial topic at Cop 28 in Dubai in November.

By Georgia Gratton

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