<article><p class="lead">The <i>Argus</i> TTF front-month gas contract closed at €29.30/MWh on Monday, its lowest for any day since 17 June 2021.</p><p>Brisk LNG sendout, above-average stocks at European gas storage facilities and weak demand have steadily weighed on prices from the front of the curve in recent months. And consumption has fallen further in recent weeks as heating demand has faded because of warmer weather, in line with the typical seasonal progression.</p><p>In addition, power-sector gas demand has been weak. <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2451862">Strong renewable generation</a> and weak overall power demand have weighed on gas-fired output, even with <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2445973">gas ahead of coal</a> in the merit order. </p><p>There remains <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2436189">further downside risk for gas prices</a> this summer, particularly if LNG demand outside of Europe holds weak and storage sites in Europe are close to full before the start of the winter.</p><p>The European stockbuild has picked up over the course of this month, with net EU injections averaging 3.83 TWh/d on 13-21 May, up from 3.05 TWh/d earlier in the month and 1.58 TWh/d in April, according to the latest GIE transparency platform data.</p><p>This has lifted aggregate EU stocks to 745TWh, equating to 66pc of capacity, and well above the 473TWh a year earlier.</p><p>Sustained brisk LNG sendout has bolstered available supply for injections. Aggregate European sendout — including the UK — was 4.89 TWh/d on 1-21 May, up from a three-year average of 3.61 TWh/d.</p><p>Prices have fallen even as the <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2451911">first of two periods of heavy maintenance</a> at Norwegian fields and processing facilities this summer has begun, curtailing Norwegian production. Nominated Norwegian deliveries to Europe — including the UK — fell to 258mn m³/d on 16-23 May from 285mn m³/d earlier in the month. Norwegian exports to Europe were nominated at just 226mn m³ for today, the lowest for any day since 8 June last year.</p><p>European gas hub prices even fell on the day that an <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2449940">unplanned shutdown</a> was announced at Norway's 4.2mn t/yr Hammerfest LNG export terminal. </p><p>As the TTF front-month price has fallen, it has moved to a discount to <i>Argus'</i> northeast Asian (ANEA) LNG-delivered price for the same period, although the discount was still too small to cover the additional transport costs associated with sending an Atlantic-basin LNG cargo the longer journey to northeast Asia rather than Europe. The TTF front-month market first moved to a discount to the ANEA contract on 16 May, and has closed below it in the three most recent assessments. </p><p class="bylines">By Oscar Mahony</p><p><div class="picture"><div><span class="pic_title">TTF front-month price</span> <span class="units">€/MWh</span></div><img src="https://argus-public-assets-us.s3.amazonaws.com/2023/05/23/ttffront-month23052023024002.jpg"></div></article>
