What is the volatility and balance of risk for crude oil and refined products prices? Data-driven insights and market context are needed to address this seemingly simple question. If you can answer it with confidence, you have an edge in making better, faster trading, hedging and risk management decisions.

Argus Possibility Curves is a probabilistic forecasting data service. Each day we publish a price forecast for all major grades of crude oil and key refined oil products, along with the probability to observe that price associated with each quantile. Produced by combining the latest data science and machine learning techniques with Argus’ proprietary pricing database, the Argus Possibility Curves is the only way to confidently estimate volatility and balance of risk associated to oil prices.


Why use Argus Possibility Curves?

In essence, Argus Possibility Curves can be used to develop trading and risk management tools such as trading scorecards based on the latest market dynamics that can measure:

  • Price volatility: fast-moving markets can result in exciting trading opportunities.
  • Balance of risk (upside vs downside risk): these infrequent, big market changes can shift the P&L
  • Because our forward-looking probabilistic forecasts cover up to three months ahead, scorecards can be developed for crude grades, key refined oil products, time spreads and grade spreads.

Key features


Alternative physical transactions data

We couple conventional financial and macroeconomic drivers with proprietary data garnered from our role as a leading international price reporting agency.


Coverage of crude and refined products

Probabilistic forecast data for major international crude oil grades and key refined products.


Argus universe of drivers

We use more than 200 macroeconomic and financial drivers which have been specifically calibrated for the energy and commodity markets.


Machine learning

Our machine learning framework includes the use of linear and non-linear relationships, interactions between market drivers and the power to handle relatively small datasets.


Alternative physical transactions data

We are a leading price reporting agency for international energy and commodity markets, this expertise allows us to give real market context to the data.


The data and determining key drivers

Utilising proprietary deals and pricing data, augmented with fundamentals, financial and macroeconomic data.

Argus Data Science Studio - Possibility Curves

Possibility Curve via the Argus Data Science Studio

The Argus Data Science Studio is a powerful modelling tool designed to support your analytics, trading, hedging and risk management decisions. You access the Argus Possibility Curves data via the Studio, where you can visualise probabilistic forecasts and customise them by changing drivers and driver relationships to reflect your individual domain knowledge.

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