Overview

The Argus EU ETS and CBAM Outlook is a monthly supplement for subscribers to the Argus Carbon Service, delivering a 24‑month EU ETS spot price forecast, CBAM cost calculations, and expert market commentary to help navigate carbon‑cost uncertainty with confidence.

Designed for compliance‑driven and CBAM‑exposed organisations, the supplement supports strategic planning, risk management, and informed decision‑making amid increasingly volatile carbon markets.

The supplement includes:

  • 24‑month EU ETS spot price forecast
    Published at the start of each month, with monthly updates.
  • CBAM cost tables
    Coverage of 120+ products by CN code and country of origin. Includes a quarterly cost breakdown for 2026, along with 24-month CBAM cost forecasts based on European Commission default values and the Argus EU ETS spot price forecasts.
  • Expert market commentary
    Insights into expected market trends, drivers and regulatory developments in the near to mid-term, examining how the wider generation fuels complex and global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors could impact the EU ETS. Includes analysis of recent market developments and policy updates.

To receive further issues of the Argus EU ETS and CBAM Outlook you must be a subscriber of the Argus Carbon Service.

You can request trial access to this service by completing the form on this page.

Argus Carbon Service

Request a free trial or more information by completing this form.

FAQs

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is an EU policy that applies a carbon cost to imported goods based on their emissions. Companies importing carbon‑intensive products into the EU must comply by reporting emissions and paying costs linked to the EU ETS price, making CBAM a key part of the global carbon market.
The EU ETS price directly determines the cost of CBAM certificates. Importers must pay a carbon cost aligned with EU producers under the EU Emissions Trading System, meaning any change in the EU ETS price forecast impacts CBAM costs and compliance exposure.

The EU ETS is a central pillar of the global carbon market, influencing carbon pricing across regions. Changes in the EU ETS price impact emissions costs, energy markets, and compliance strategies globally.

Key drivers of the EU ETS price include:

  • Regulatory and policy changes
  • Energy market trends (gas, coal, power)
  • Industrial demand
  • Macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions

Designed for compliance‑driven and CBAM‑exposed organisations, the Argus EU ETS and CBAM Outlook is a monthly supplement for subscribers to the Argus Carbon service, delivering a 24‑month EU ETS spot price forecast, CBAM cost calculations, and expert market commentary. The supplement supports: 

  • Strategic planning 
  • Risk management 
  • Informed decision‑making

The Argus Carbon service provides EU ETS market insights, including:

  • EU ETS price forecasts and updates 
  • Insights into policy, market trends and the broader carbon market

The Argus Carbon service provides CBAM-related coverage, including:

  • Real‑time regulatory updates 
  • Policy developments 
  • Market analysis linked to EU ETS price trends 
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