ARGUS Green Ammonia Strategy Report

Our new Argus Green Ammonia Strategy Report is a unique and essential report focused on the embryonic but potentially huge market for ammonia as a low or zero-carbon energy carrier.

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The urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals is bringing about dramatic change and uncertainty in the energy and fuels sector. Renewable power has the potential to directly meet a substantial part of global energy demand, but technical and practical limitations mean that other means of transporting energy will be required for key end-use sectors like transportation.

Ammonia, traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content, has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors.

Key questions addressed

These developments have raised a series of pressing questions from a wide range of related industries:

  • What will green ammonia cost to produce, and how will those costs develop?
  • Which countries are best positioned to produce low or zero carbon ammonia?
  • Will regulation, carbon taxes or incentives be required to unlock the potential of low or zero carbon ammonia projects?
  • What key blue and green ammonia projects are being developed?
  • What is the global forecast for low or zero carbon ammonia demand to 2050, and in which end-use segments?

The Argus Green Ammonia Strategy Report provides answers to these questions.

Key market trends analysed

  • The projected volume and drivers of growth in the market for ammonia as a decarbonised energy carrier.
  • Ammonia’s position in the fuel mix in the new decarbonised fuel economy and sectors expected to adopt ammonia as a fuel.
  • The factors likely to determine the development of low-carbon ammonia capacity and locations likely to become key supply hubs.

Key benefits

  • Understand the key market and non-market influences driving the development of ammonia as a fuel
  • Discover which sectors are the most promising for the use of ammonia for fuel, and why
  • Develop your understanding of the economics of blue and green ammonia production, and how they will evolve
  • Assess the existing ammonia market, its buyers, suppliers and infrastructure
  • Quantify the potential size of the future ammonia-for-fuel market using robust underlying data, developed by Argus’ unique multi-commodity team
  • Enhance your strategy to capitalise on this fast-developing market

Key features

  • Overview of ammonia supply chain (current producers, key end users, logistics)
  • Overview of the key macro trends and factors driving decarbonisation, and the role and position of alternative fuel carriers
  • Demand forecast for key ammonia-as-fuel markets to 2050, taking into account its potential against competing low or zero-carbon fuels, technical considerations, and likely legislative and regulatory interventions
    • Direct uses
      • As a bunker marine fuel
      • For power generation
      • For conventional uses, like fertilizers and chemicals
    • Indirect uses
      • Manufacturing
      • Power generation
      • Transport
  • Region by region assessment of potential for development of low and zero-carbon ammonia capacity, including production costs, competitive position and potential government support
  • Development of alternative market scenarios for ammonia as a fuel and as a hydrogen carrier — for supply, demand, trade, cost and pricing scenarios, illustrating the impact of alternative assumptions
  • Independent assessment of the factors likely to facilitate or hamper development of ammonia as a fuel
  • Access to the expert consultants behind Argus’ long-term market analysis
  • This comprehensive strategy report is delivered in PowerPoint format (over 300 narrative and graphical slides) and includes essential supporting data

Who should use this report?

  • Fertilizer and chemical producers seeking to better understand how the development of a market for ammonia as a fuel will impact their business and create new opportunities
  • Ammonia and energy traders seeking future opportunities from the energy transition
  • Shipping companies that are looking at low and zero-carbon fuel options to comply with IMO directives, and bunker fuel producers and traders that are looking for opportunities in this sector
  • Power utilities and power generation fuels suppliers looking to understand potential trends in the adoption of low and zero-carbon fuels in key countries, and the implications for the future fuels mix
  • Hydrocarbon producers interested in diversifying their product portfolios in light of increasingly ambitious decarbonisation goals
  • Investors seeking to gain a better understanding of the opportunities arising from the recent wave of project activity in the hydrogen and ammonia space
  • Technology and Engineering companies looking into opportunities presented by the energy transition

Benefits of choosing Argus

  • Argus’ green ammonia experience and expertise: Argus has a proven track record of delivering highly valuable bespoke green ammonia client studies through its Consulting Services division. Argus tracks, reports on and analyses green ammonia market developments and projects in our relevant price reporting, outlook and analytics services. We have also produced a shadow price based on LCOA (Levelized Cost of Ammonia).
  • Argus’ multi-commodity expertise: Our ammonia, marine fuels, power and energy transition services are highly valued and our experts are widely respected.
  • Robust methodology and comprehensive cost model: Argus employ robust, best-in-class analytics methodology and have a constructed cost model with assumptions tested in the market place.
  • Extensive network within the industry: We are early members of the AEA (Ammonia Energy Association) and produce a range of industry-leading green ammonia conferences, workshops and digital events - ensuring our clients benefit from our relationships with the key personalities in the sector.

Navigating energy transition

Energy transition offers tough challenges and huge opportunities. Far from affecting only the power sector, all major industries are looking to transform how they produce, store, transport and consume energy. The need for authoritative information on fuels, industrial heat, power and chemical raw materials has never been greater.

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