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Venezuela oil production rises in July

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 02/08/23

Venezuela crude production rose to 843,700 b/d in July based on oil ministry figures, returning to an increase after June's drop that was one of the first such declines so far this year.

The US eased sanctions on Venezuela late last year, allowing some increased investment from outside partners in Venezuela's fields.

The July figure includes condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs), the ministry reported. Once those byproducts are deducted — as Opec figures typically reflect — production was about 808,000 b/d, still an increase from the comparable figure of 788,000 b/d in June, an industry source estimated.

June's production was about 806,300 b/d including condensates and NGLs, oil ministry Menpet said last month.

Most outside sources report lower monthly production figures for the country. Argus estimated Venezuelan production in June at about 760,000 b/d.

The Orinoco oil belt, known as the faja, remains the top oil-producing region in Venezuela, with a 503,600 b/d average in July, up from 485,500 b/d in June. Oriente production also rose, to 164,900 b/d, from 156,100 b/d in June, while Occidente output was up as well, to 175,200 b/d from 164,700 b/d in June.

In Maracaibo, ChemStrategy consultants also reported around 173,000 b/d from Occidente in July, separate from the ministry.

Increased gasoline production from state-owned PdV's refineries and renewed export activity out of the Paraguana refining complex (CRP) — with a far underutilized capacity of 971,000 b/d — have supported the boost in crude output, analysts in Caracas and Maracaibo told Argus.


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12/07/24

Biden brushes aside calls to end candidacy

Biden brushes aside calls to end candidacy

Washington, 12 July (Argus) — President Joe Biden said on Thursday he will not end his re-election bid despite calls from Democratic lawmakers and donors who have raised doubts about his ability to defeat former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump. "I believe I'm the best qualified to govern, and I think I'm the best qualified to win," Biden told reporters following the conclusion of a three-day NATO summit in Washington. "I beat [Trump] once, and I will beat him again." Biden's televised debate with Trump last month led some Democratic lawmakers to urge him to end his campaign, and even senior Democrats like former House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) suggested that Biden should decide soon whether to remain in the race. Biden in his debate, which he called a "stupid mistake," often appeared feeble and confused and struggled to clearly articulate his policy positions. But Biden appeared stronger and more coherent in his solo press conference on Thursday — the first since November — in part because he talked about his international initiatives, which he considers among his strongest policy strengths. Biden cited NATO's security support for Ukraine and his administration's efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza among his accomplishments. During the NATO summit this week fellow leaders "made it a point in their statements to thank the US and to thank me personally for all that NATO has achieved," Biden said, as a counterpoint to Trump's frequent criticism of the military alliance. Biden acknowledged that his age and medical conditions have led him to curtail his work schedule, with no engagements after 8pm, even though several late evening events were on his agenda during the NATO summit. He appeared to blame his staff for putting too many events on his schedule. Biden earlier attributed his poor performance during the debate to two transatlantic trips in June, to attend the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landing in France and to participate in the G7 summit in Italy. Even with a clearly stronger performance today — Biden took multiple questions during an hour-long press conference that ended at 8:30pm ET — his tendency to misspeak will continue to fuel his critics. At a NATO event earlier today, Biden mistakenly introduced Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Russian president Vladimir Putin, while NATO leaders watched uncomfortably. "I am better [than Putin]," Zelenskiy jokingly retorted, while Biden said he thought too much about how to "beat Putin." And Biden referred to vice president Kamala Harris as "vice president Trump" during the press conference. Harris is qualified to serve as president but "I am the most qualified person to run," Biden repeatedly said. "I am the qualified person to do the job to make sure that Ukraine will not fall, that Ukraine succeeds, that the European alliance stays strong." Biden said he would only drop out of the race if his staff told him polls "showed there's no way you can win." At the summit, NATO members decided to establish an organization formally tasked with coordinating military assistance and training for Ukraine's armed forces, rather than have the US alone lead the effort. Referencing Trump's criticism of NATO and frequent adoration of Putin, Biden said that the election "is much more than the political question — it's a national security issue." Biden referred to several unnamed NATO leaders who told him: "You've got to win. You can't let this guy come forward. It'd be a disaster." The NATO summit declaration also accused China of covertly assisting the Russian war effort by providing key components for weapons. The US previously threatened to impose sanctions against Chinese companies allegedly helping the Russian defense industry. "I'm not prepared to talk about the details of [potential new sanctions] in public," Biden said. "I think you'll see that some of our European friends are going to be curtailing their involvement" in China. Biden said he would not sit down to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine "unless Putin's ready to change his behavior." Hungary's prime minister Victor Orban met with Zelenskiy, Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping earlier this month to discuss a possible Ukraine peace deal, and he plans to meet with Trump on Friday. The Biden administration has dismissed Orban's mediation as unhelpful. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China oil demand growth ground to a halt in 2Q: IEA


11/07/24
11/07/24

China oil demand growth ground to a halt in 2Q: IEA

London, 11 July (Argus) — The IEA said today that China's oil demand growth came to a standstill in the second quarter, driven down by weak industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstock demand. "Oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May, and is now assessed marginally below year earlier levels in [the second quarter]," the Paris-based agency said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). The agency now sees China's oil demand growing by 410,000 b/d in 2024, compared with its forecast for 480,000 b/d in last month's OMR. But the IEA's global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remained broadly unchanged, rising by 10,000 b/d to 970,000 b/d as the downgrade from China was offset by better-than-expected consumption in OECD economies. It said global growth at 710,000 b/d in the April-June period was the slowest quarterly increase since the final three months of 2022 when China was in lockdown. For next year, the agency cut its demand growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 980,000 b/d — its lowest 2025 estimate so far. Lower Chinese consumption data feed into the IEA's narrative that the country's pre-eminence as a source of global demand growth is fading. "Last year the country accounted for 70pc of global demand gains — this will decline to around 40pc in 2024 and 2025, with other emerging economies such as India and Brazil capturing greater prominence," it said. While the IEA said much of China's deceleration was due to consumption growth normalising following a post-Covid rebound in 2023, it also noted an "intrinsic slowdown" related to LPG/ethane and naphtha use in petrochemicals production. On global oil supply, the IEA increased its growth estimate from around 700,000 b/d to 770,000 b/d on the back of strong production from the US in the second quarter. It also noted a 150,000 b/d rise to 102.9mn b/d in June after Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan bounced back from oil field maintenance and as biofuels output rose seasonally to offset a significant output decline from Saudi Arabia. The IEA forecasts non-Opec+ supply growth of 1.5mn b/d this year and a 740,000 b/d fall from Opec+ because of its production cuts. The agency has not yet incorporated the Opec+ plan to start unwinding some of its from October this year, noting the alliance said this decision could be paused or reversed. For 2025, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.8mn b/d to a record 104.8mn b/d. The IEA also highlighted a rise in global oil inventories. These increased for a fourth consecutive month in May, by 23.9mn bl to the highest since August 2021. Preliminary data for June show a stock fall of 18.1mn bl, the IEA said. By Aydin Calik IEA global supply-demand balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela opposition harassment builds before elections


10/07/24
10/07/24

Venezuela opposition harassment builds before elections

Caracas, 10 July (Argus) — The Venezuelan government under President Nicolas Maduro continues to threaten and harass opposition candidates ahead of 28 July national elections, where it trails in polls by as much as 60 percentage points. Since late June dozens of opposition campaign workers have been arrested under unclear charges, with many of them being released, according to figures compiled by non-governmental organisation (NGO) Acceso a la Justicia. A motorcade for opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado, who has been blocked from registering for the election, was stopped by police in Trujillo state in late June as well. Machado was detained for about an hour but said she was not told why she was held. Last week Unitary Platform party (PUD) presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez said he was harassed by government workers when boarding a flight on nationally-owned airline Conviasa, who blamed him for the imposition of US sanctions. In a webcast after the incident he said he received a letter from airline employees explaining how they are directed to harass the opposition ahead of time, using government-approved scripts. On Monday, attorney general Tarek William Saab ratcheted-up tensions even further, claiming in a televised address that the political opposition was trying to hire right-wing paramilitaries in Colombia to assassinate Maduro and attack power infrastructure in Zulia state. The harassment comes as national polls continue to show Maduro trailing Gonzalez by double-digits. A new poll released Wednesday by Meganalisis has Gonzalez garnering nearly 72pc of the votes to about 12pc for Maduro. The opposition and Venezuelan human rights NGO Laboratorio de Paz say the tactics violate the Barbados-Qatar agreements Maduro signed with PUD and the US to insure a partial lifting of oil sanctions in exchange of "free and fair" elections. The US has since reimposed sanctions. Maduro has already denied the right to vote to 5mn voting-age Venezuelans living abroad and disinvited the EU's electoral observation team for the elections. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP's scenarios see more room for gas to 2050


10/07/24
10/07/24

BP's scenarios see more room for gas to 2050

London, 10 July (Argus) — BP's latest scenarios for gas demand out to 2050 put consumption higher mid-century than it previously anticipated. This year's BP Energy Outlook , published on Wednesday, focuses on two scenarios, both at the extreme of transition outcomes. The 'Current Trajectory' scenario — which is not consistent with a 2°C carbon budget — places weight on climate policies already in force. The 'Paris-consistent' Net Zero scenario assumes there is a significant tightening in those policies. The Current Trajectory has gas demand increasing from 3.99 trillion m³/yr in 2022 to 4.73 trillion m³/yr in 2050 ( see demand graph ), slightly up on the 4.62 trillion m³/yr estimate in last year's similar New Momentum scenario. While the Net Zero scenario has demand increasing slightly to 4.02 trillion m³/yr by 2030, it sees 1.8 trillion m³/yr by mid-century, against 1.66 trillion m³/yr projected last year. And roughly 80pc of gas demand is used with carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) by 2050. The difference between the two scenarios when it comes to gas demand is stark — a gap of almost 850bn m³/yr by 2035, or a fifth of potential demand by then. The wide gap between scenario outcomes for gas — with gas demand growing by 19pc under the Current Trajectory and plummeting by 58pc under Net Zero by mid-century — reflects two significant opposing trends, BP said. The first is increasing demand in emerging economies as they grow and industrialise. The second is a shift away from natural gas to greater electrification and lower-carbon fuels. But the net effect of these depends on the speed of the energy transition. Also underpinning BP's projections are trends common to both scenarios. One is that energy demand grows more strongly in emerging economies, driven by rising prosperity and living standards. Another is that the structure of this demand will change as fossil fuels are replaced by a growing share of low-carbon energy. LNG demand will rise by 2040 Growing consumption in emerging economies will drive LNG demand higher by 2040 compared with 2022 under both BP's scenarios, but under the Current Trajectory it will rise until 2050 while under Net Zero it will peak by 2030. BP estimates that LNG demand will steadily rise to 988bn m³/yr by 2050 under the Current Trajectory scenario from 543bn m³/d of traded volumes in 2022 ( see LNG graph ). But the firm sees LNG demand growing until 2030, rising to 718bn m³/yr before falling to 586bn m³/yr and 311bn m³/yr in 2040 and 2050, respectively. The differential of 60bn m³/yr between the two scenarios in 2030 depends largely on whether the EU and UK continue to use LNG as a substitute for imports of pipeline Russian gas, or they turn to alternative energy sources "combined with faster gains in energy efficiency", BP said. Russian gas exports set to fall by 2030 BP estimates that Russian exports will fall by 30-40pc by 2030 from pre-2022 levels because sanctions against Russia will limit the expansion of LNG exports. But from then, exports from Russia could increase slightly by 2040 and further by 2050 to 252bn m³/yr under the Current Trajectory scenario from 227bn m³/yr in 2021 ( see Russian exports graph ). Growth in LNG exports will drive the overall increase, which would more than double to 104bn m³/yr by mid-century from 2021. On the contrary, the Net Zero scenario has Russian exports falling to 83bn m³/yr by 2050, with pipeline exports to China accounting for the greatest share at 34bn m³/yr that year. Pipeline deliveries to countries excluding China are forecast never to recover to pre-2022 levels and could reach a maximum of 70bn m³/yr by 2050 under the Current Trajectory scenario. US and Middle East to remain main producers Gas production will largely depend on demand for LNG exports in the coming years, but will later depend on the speed of the energy transition, BP said. While global gas production is forecast to increase to 4.73 trillion m³/yr by 2050 to meet demand from emerging economies under the Current Trajectory, BP estimates that the regional distribution of production will remain roughly the same — the US and the Middle East covering 43pc of production by 2050. Gas production was 4.04 trillion m³/yr in 2022 and the US and the Middle East accounted for 42pc of total output that year. The Net Zero scenario has production remaining roughly the same by 2030, but then falling, especially in 2040-50, and running at 1.8 trillion m³/yr by 2050, corresponding with falling gas demand under the scenario. And combined output from the US and the Middle East would still cover 57pc of global gas production. By Jon Mainwaring and Jana Cervinkova Actual and forecast gas demand in 2000-50 trillion m³/yr in Actual and forecast LNG traded volumes in 2000-50 bn m³/yr Russian exports based on BP's scenarios Current Trajector (CT) and Net Zero (NZ) bn m³/yr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec's oil demand growth forecasts remain the same


10/07/24
10/07/24

Opec's oil demand growth forecasts remain the same

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec has again doubled down on its bullish oil demand growth forecast for this year, keeping it unchanged for a 12th consecutive month. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 2.25mn b/d, unchanged since it first published a projection for 2024 in July last year. It kept its oil demand growth projection for next year at 1.85mn b/d, unchanged from when it was first forecast in January 2024. The unchanging nature of Opec's 2024 oil demand figures is notable given that this far into a year oil demand forecasts are typically altered — sometimes by very small margins — as more economic and consumption data become available. The gap between Opec and other forecasters has grown in recent months, as the EIA and IEA have downgraded their oil demand growth estimates for this year. The EIA forecasts demand will increase by 1.1mn b/d, while the IEA puts it lower at 960,000 b/d. Opec said the US Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and the high interest rate environment was increasing costs of capital, particularly in the US market, which is limiting investment in upstream exploration and production. It said high interest rates were supporting a strong US dollar, which was resulting in higher commodity prices. But Opec said the Fed could begin to cut rates in the latter half of the year given strong US growth and "a downward trend in global inflationary pressures." On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth estimate for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d and 1.10mn b/d, respectively. It said non-Opec+ growth for 2024 would be mostly driven by the US, Canada and Brazil. Opec+ crude production fell by 125,000 b/d to 40.8mn b/d in June, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . This is around 2.3mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude, which it sees at 43.1mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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