IMO 2040 CO2 goals unmet under base case: ABS

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
27/08/24

The shipping industry will not meet the International Maritime Organization (IMO) goal for reducing CO2 emissions by 2040 without hastening the expected pace of vessel replacements, a study by vessel classification organization American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) concluded.

IMO calls for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20pc by 2030, by at least 70pc by 2040, and to net zero by 2050, compared with 2008 base levels. Under a base case scenario, a 20pc reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030 is achievable on a full lifecycle basis, but a 70pc percent reduction by 2040 is not, ABS said.

Under the best case scenario examined by ABS, achieving IMO's 70pc target would require a significantly faster renewal of the vessel fleet to replace oil-fueled vessels or a higher degree of vessel retrofitting.

The three biggest categories of bunker consuming vessels — tankers, dry bulk carriers and container ships — are expected to follow a similar trajectory for marine fuel demand under the base case scenario, with conventional marine fuel accounting for more than 60pc of demand through 2035, ABS said.

Conventional fuel demand would decline to 38-44pc of marine fuel demand in the first half of the 2040s in the base case, ABS predicted. Methanol in that period would grow to about 35pc of marine fuel demand for tankers and container ships and about 22pc for dry bulk carriers. Ammonia and hydrogen demand would grow to about 13pc of tankers' marine fuel demand, 18pc of dry bulk carriers' demand and about 14pc of container ships' demand. LNG across the three vessel categories is expected at 4-6pc of bunkering demand in the early 2040s, with biodiesel at 5-9pc of demand.

By Stefka Wechsler

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21/04/25

US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions

Kingston, 21 April (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago and the US have agreed to seek ways to prevent Washington's sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector from harming the Caribbean country's natural gas production and energy security, both governments said. The administration of President Donald Trump revoked licenses earlier this month that had been granted by former president Joe Biden's government to gas-short Trinidad to develop the Dragon and Cocuina gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela. "Both sides agreed that we are going to work very closely to find a solution that achieves US objectives regarding Venezuela without harming Trinidad," the US State Department and Trinidad prime minister Stuart Young said. But neither government indicated how Trinidad would find alternative sources of feedstock in the short term to lift output of midstream and downstream products. Young and US secretary of state Marco Rubio discussed Trinidad's concerns in an 18 April telephone conversation, Young's office said. "Any outcomes of sanctions upon the Maduro regime and Venezuela is in no way indicative of our relationship with Trinidad and Tobago and the value we place on it," the state department said. Trinidad regards the cross-border gas fields as future sources of feedstock to counter a fall in domestic output that has suppressed LNG, petrochemicals and fertilizer production. It has struggled to recover gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a 4.3 Bcf/d peak in 2010. Trinidad's 2024 natural gas production of 2.53 Bcf/d was 2pc less than in the previous year, according to the latest data from the energy ministry. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) had cleared the way for Trinidad and Venezuela to develop the 4.3 trillion cf Dragon field. Ofac also granted BP and Trinidad's state-owned gas company NGC a license to develop the cross-border Cocuina-Manakin field, which contains at least 1 trillion cf. The Trump administration revoked licenses both this year. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US PVC demand outlook softens on weak housing

21/04/25

US PVC demand outlook softens on weak housing

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) participants are downgrading initial demand estimates from nominal growth to more stable expectations in the coming months because of downbeat housing variables. Many US PVC participants throughout March and April said early signs from housing data and customer sentiment did not point to a robust housing construction season in the coming months. PVC buyers have been hesitant to build inventory under such conditions, further slowing consumption because many are unsure when or if end-user demand will support initial purchases. Privately-owned housing permits were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.482mn units in March, according to data from the US Census Bureau and the Department for Housing and Urban Development (HUD). While March permits rose by nearly 2pc from February, they fell by less than 1pc from year-ago levels. Single family permits stood at 978,000 units, down by 2pc from the prior month and lower by less than 1pc from the same time last year. Housing starts in March were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.324mn units, about 11pc below February rates but nearly 2pc higher than a year earlier. Single-family starts declined by about 14pc to a 940,000 unit rate from the prior month. The latest builder sentiment survey for April maintained a cautious view for the single-family homes market, reversing nominally weaker sentiment from March, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment, though, remains well below the confidence seen at the start of the year, underpinning a weakening market. PVC participants are increasingly concerned that current and future tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on critical trade partners will re-trigger inflation and thwart any future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates are largely regarded by PVC players as a bullish demand variable, especially in the housing sector. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell did not ease market concerns last week, saying tariffs are likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth" — or stagflation — and added markets were struggling "with a lot of uncertainty." Powell added that tariffs could challenge the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maintaining price stability while fostering maximum job growth, leaving policymakers to wait for greater clarity on economic impacts before making any adjustments to interest rates. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

21/04/25

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

Corrects B30 pricing in paragraph 5. New York, 21 April (Argus) — An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward. The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032. At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035. The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts). If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO. At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector. By Stefka Wechsler Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

21/04/25

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — California regulators delayed a vote this week on new refinery resupply rules meant to mitigate retail gasoline price spikes, but refiners are still wary that the state is moving to make the most regulated market in the US even tougher. The California Energy Commission (CEC) had scheduled a vote on refinery resupply rules at its 24 April business meeting but said the meeting is now postponed to allow for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders. The draft rules under consideration would require refiners to submit resupply plans to the state at least 120 days before any planned maintenance in September and October that would cause California specification gasoline production to decline by 20,000 b/d for at least 21 days or a total of more than 450,000 bl. Large spikes in California prices occurred in the fall of 2022 and 2023. The commission is also planning rulemaking this year on minimum inventory requirements to avoid price spikes in the event of unplanned events, as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap. The timing of the new regulations is precarious, as two major refineries in the state are planning to shut operations within a year. Independent refiner Valero said on 16 April it is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California and continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its other refinery in the state – the 85,000 b/d Wilmington facility. In addition, Phillips 66 is planning to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery later this year. Effort to stop gasoline price spikes The California rules stem from two pieces of legislation signed by California governor Gavin Newsom known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2, part of a multi-year effort to mitigate price volatility in the state, after some of the highest gasoline prices ever recorded in the fall of 2022. US refiners have long opposed the new regulations seeing them as a political attack on the industry, conflicting with other laws and the latest example of an increasingly difficult regulatory environment in the state. The CEC has conducted workshops to help draft the rules with the participation of labor groups, the refining industry, environmental justice groups, community advocates, and the public. The industry was largely represented by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA). WSPA told the commission that the resupply rule could conflict with existing statutory requirements for refiners not to withhold fuel from the market and could result in market distortions and undesirable price impacts. The rules could also make it hard for Arizona and Nevada to secure needed supplies in the face of regulations expressly favoring Californians' access to fuel, WSPA said. The rules could also force refiners to use "uneconomic strategies" to secure non-spot market resupplies and additional capital to guarantee inventories that could potentially lead to higher gasoline prices, the group said. AB X2-1 forbids the CEC from adopting any regulation "unless it finds that the likely benefits to consumers from avoiding price volatility outweigh the potential costs to consumers." WSPA said it is concerned that the CEC does not "have the facts in front of it to legitimately support such a finding" with respect to imposing the resupply requirement. Under the draft resupply rules, refiners must show they can secure sufficient supply to ensure that lost gasoline production anticipated during the maintenance does not adversely affect the California transportation fuels market. The plan must show a resupply volume of at least 85pc of the anticipated lost gasoline production during the maintenance and the resupply volumes must match the seasonal specification of the lost production. The resupply plans could include imports and each barrel of resupply obtained by imports will count as 1.3 barrels of resupply. In addition, a plan that includes resupply through the purchase or storage of gasoline blendstocks or gasoline blending components must explain how such materials will result in an equivalent amount of California specification gasoline. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Refineries with capacity under 30,000 b/d are exempt from the resupply regulation. The rules would apply to five major refiners operating in the state — Chevron, PBF Energy, Phillips 66, Valero and Marathon. Phillips 66, however, will be closing its Los Angeles refinery by October and converted a refinery in Rodeo, California, to renewable fuels in 2024. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Looking at options The CEC caused a stir in August 2024 when it released its Transportation Fuels Assessment, which examined policy options to mitigate price spikes and transition away from fossil fuels including the state of California buying and owning refineries. The assessment said this could range from one refinery to all refineries in the state. But the document also highlighted problems with such a plan, including the high cost of buying refineries, significant legal issues, and the fact that the state has no experience managing complex industrial processes. California is not currently pursuing this option, state officials said. Another idea in the Transportation Fuels Assessment involved state-owned product reserves in the north and south of California to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. This could include "up to several hundred thousand barrels." The CEC and the California Air Resources Board are drafting a formal Transportation Fuels Transition Plan which will serve as a road map to move away from fossil fuels. A draft of the report will be released later this year. The Transportation Fuels Assessment and the Transportation Fuels Transition Plan were mandated under SB X1-2. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Revo launches SAF, biodiesel plant in Aichi

21/04/25

Japan’s Revo launches SAF, biodiesel plant in Aichi

Tokyo, 21 April (Argus) — Japanese biodiesel producer Revo International has launched a plant in the Aichi prefecture, central Japan, to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biodiesel. This is the company's first SAF plant but its second biodiesel plant, Revo said. The firm already has a biodiesel plant in Kyoto, western Japan. Revo held an opening ceremony at the Aichi plant on 18 April. The plant has a production capacity of 30,000 litres/d for biodiesel, and can process 600 l/d of used cooking oil (UCO) as feedstock to make SAF. The plant can produce SAF at low pressure and temperature, Revo's president Tetsuya Koshikawa said at the ceremony. This helps to save energy consumption during SAF production, which results in a lower production cost, the firm explains. Revo hopes to supply the produced SAF to planes at Chubu International Airport, near the Aichi plant. The company has applied for international certifications on SAF including the UN's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) and the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards, and expects to be certified in the 2025 fiscal year starting from April. Revo also joined Japan's first large-scale domestic SAF production venture Saffaire Sky Energy, jointly funded by Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil, engineering firm JGC and Revo. Saffaire has a SAF plant at Cosmo's Sakai refinery, Osaka, and started delivering its SAF in this April. In the venture, Revo takes charge of collecting UCO as feedstock for SAF. The companies have announced the plans to start delivering Saffaire's SAF to domestic airlines Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA), the US' Delta Air Lines , Finnish airline Finnair and German logistics group DHL Express in the 2025 fiscal year. Cosmo group will also deliver Saffaire's SAF to Taiwanese airline Starlux Airlines in the 2025 fiscal year at Kobe airport, western Japan, Cosmo and JGC announced on 18 April. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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