Thailand’s 4Q urea imports face pressure

Spanish Market: Fertilizers
04/09/24

Thailand's fourth-quarter urea imports are largely expected to fall because of high inventories and slowing domestic demand, despite a spur in arrivals in July.

Thailand's domestic main application season usually begins in May but heavy rainfall accelerated at the end of July and slowed fertilizer application.

Continued monsoon rainfall in most regions in August has led to widespread flooding, especially in the northeast of the country, with further severe rainfall forecast for early September. Flooding has damaged rice and corn field crops in some regions and extra measures have had to be taken to drain fields.

In-season rice paddy plantings nationwide have also been affected and were less than expected at 15.04mn rai (2.4mn ha) compared with a projected 17.01mn rai. Plantings for field-crop vegetables were also projected at 540,000 rai but only hit 360,000 rai, as of 28 August, according to Thailand's Royal Irrigation Department. This has slowed overall agricultural activity and stifled domestic urea buying demand.

Urea stocks have yet to be fully liquidated for July-August, while incoming vessels of contractual shipments due to arrive in August and September further adding to inventories. Farmers and consumers are also facing reduced affordability and have refrained from purchasing more than necessary urea cargoes.

Price sentiment for rice exports has been bearish in Thailand, with July wholegrain prices dipping by around 3-7pc below June levels. Thai 100pc B white rice prices were indicated mostly around $602.70/t fob in July, down by 7pc from a month earlier, while Thai parboiled 100pc rice was indicated at $590.70/t fob and down by 5pc, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. This was despite an appreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar and the announcement of a rice import tender from Indonesia, which typically boosts Asian rice prices and trade.

Importers are unlikely to seek any additional urea spot cargoes in this year's fourth quarter because of weaker farmer demand, instead seeking to sell existing inventories.

Thailand's urea imports in July more than doubled to 445,000t, the largest monthly intake this year. This was largely driven by anticipation of firm urea demand, as ample rainfall across most regions in June had encouraged importers to schedule contractual urea vessels for July arrival.

By Dinise Chng

Thailand urea imports (t)
	Saudi Arabia	Oman	Malaysia	Indonesia	Brunei	Others	YTD

Jan	137,092	16,501	40,715	16,756	3,040	30,705	244,809
Feb	91,112	30,050	15,513	0	38,193	17,472	192,340
Mar	107,008	41,125	27,957	21,462	35,158	52,476	285,186
Apr	56,875	5,655	33,644	7,830	0	120,741	224,745
May	69,410	62,576	13,344	2,000	13,500	12,626	173,456
Jun	108,156	58,263	46,965	5,915	12,391	69,056	300,746
Jul	248,031	79,331	47,015	7,894	28,227	34,223	444,721
Total	817,684	293,501	225,153	61,857	130,509	337,299	1,866,003
Source: GTT

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03/10/24

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Offers total 2.57mn t of urea in RCF tender: Update 2

03/10/24

Offers total 2.57mn t of urea in RCF tender: Update 2

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Australia’s Origin to exit Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub

03/10/24

Australia’s Origin to exit Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub

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Tampa molten sulphur price rises for 4Q

02/10/24

Tampa molten sulphur price rises for 4Q

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Urea futures slightly firmer on Middle East tensions

01/10/24

Urea futures slightly firmer on Middle East tensions

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