Australia’s Newcastle coal ship queue eases

Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal
10/09/24

The shipping queue outside the key Australian coal port of Newcastle shrunk to 22 on 9 September from a two-year high of 41 vessels on 5 August, as throughput at the Port Waratah Coal Service (PWCS) terminals hit a seven-month high in August.

The PWCS terminals' shipments rose to 9.09mn t in August from 8.61mn t in July and from 7.6mn t in August 2023, according to PWCS data. This is the most shipped in a calendar month since January.
The average vessel turnaround time in August at PWCS eased to 6.95 days from 7.38 days in July but was up from 2.17 days in August 2023.
There was a major rail maintenance programme over 3-6 August with none planned for September and the next during 1-4 October.
Newcastle Coal Infrastructure (NCIG) does not release data for its terminal at Newcastle, while the Port Authority of New South Wales has not yet released overall data for August. Newcastle shipped 11.96mn t in July, down from 12.28mn t in June. This implies that NCIG shipped 3.35mn t in August, which is the least it has shipped since August 2024 when it also shipped 3.35mn t.
Newcastle shipped 85.16mn t during January-July, up from 81.34mn t for January-July 2023, according to port data.

By Jo Clarke

PWCS coal loading data
	Aug '24	Jul '24	Aug '23	Jan-Jul '24*	Jan- Jul '23*

PWCS loadings (mn t)	9.09	8.61	7.60	65.48	60.52
PWCS stocks (mn t)	1.28	2.25	1.39	1.54	1.45
PWCS turnaround time (days)	6.95	7.38	2.17	4.95	2.26
Newcastle ship queue (vessels)	22	41	14	23	11
Source: PWCS
* PWCS loadings is a total YTD, all others are average per month YTD

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10/10/24

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in Sep, less than forecast

Houston, 10 October (Argus) — US inflation slowed slightly less than expected in September, but still came in at the lowest annual rate since February 2021, in the first major inflation report since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates last month. The headline consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 2.4pc in September, down from 2.5pc in August, according to the Labor Department. The decline was less than the 2.3pc forecast in a survey of economists by Trading Economics. Excluding volatile food and energy, so-called core inflation rose by 3.3pc following a 3.2pc gain in the prior period, also slightly less than forecast. Today's report is the final CPI report ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy decision on 7 November and it follows a much stronger than expected employment report for September, which together could prompt the Fed to move more cautiously. Still, CPI has come down sharply from its peak of 9.1pc in mid-2022 and, despite aggressive Fed tightening, hiring has continued at a healthy rate and the overall economic expansion remains on track, partly thanks to falling energy prices. The energy index contracted by an annual 6.8pc in September after a 1.8pc contraction through August. The food index rose by an annual 2.3pc following a 2.1pc gain in the prior period. Transportation services rose by 8.5pc. Within energy, the gasoline index fell by 15.3pc after a 10.3pc decline in the prior period. Energy services rose by 3.4pc after a 3.1pc gain. Natural gas services rose by 2pc. Shelter rose by 4.9pc after a 5.2pc gain. Transportation services rose by 8.5pc following a 7.9pc gain. Auto insurance was up 16.3pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in September, matching gains in August and July, Labor said. Shelter rose by 0.2pc and food increase by 0.4pc, together accounting for over 75pc of the monthly headline increase, Labor said. The energy index declined by 1.9pc over the month, after falling by 0.8pc the prior month . By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29

09/10/24

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29

Edinburgh, 9 October (Argus) — Russia is preparing to present its climate strategy at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said. Novak convened a meeting with Russian ministries on climate issues on 7 October, in which a forecast for Russia's emissions rates, in line with the country's 'low emissions economic development strategy to 2050', was discussed. The strategy was approved in 2021. It is unclear whether the strategy is linked to Russia's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — a climate plan to be submitted to the UN. Cop parties are expected to publish their next NDCs to the Paris climate agreement — this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced Russia's 2060 net zero ambitions in October 2021, but the country has not updated its NDC since 2020. The Cop 28 agreement signed in the UAE last year included an energy section calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 and for "accelerating action in this critical decade", giving the direction countries need to take in the energy transition. The country's main focus is on doubling the absorptive capacity of Russia's forests and producing and exporting more gas, to replace demand for more carbon-intensive oil and coal. Russia has no plans to reduce coal and oil output. Russia's climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriyev said in November 2022 that Moscow could achieve net zero a decade earlier than in 2060 if its access to international debt markets and technology was not blocked because of the sanctions imposed over Ukraine. While reiterating net zero ambitions last year despite the sanctions, Putin repeatedly called accelerated decarbonisation irresponsible, claiming that it contributed to Europe's energy crisis in 2021. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range

08/10/24

Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range

London, 8 October (Argus) — A rally in recent weeks has pushed gas prices up to a range at which even older coal-fired power stations would be more profitable to run than some of the most efficient gas-fired power stations. European gas benchmark price the Dutch TTF front-month has risen strongly over the past two weeks, having closed at €40.57/MWh on 7 October, up from a recent low of €32.80/MWh on 19 September. The higher gas prices have outstripped similar price increases of other energy-related commodities such as coal, with the TTF front-month contract approaching the top of the gas-to-coal fuel-switching range ( see TTF front-month graph ). In assessments on 3 and 4 October, even older coal-fired power stations with an efficiency of 42pc would would be more profitable to run than the newest gas-fired turbines with an efficiency of 60pc, for the first time since early December last year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to gas' price increase. But with muted LNG deliveries to the continent so far this shoulder season and colder weather than last year, European gas storage sites are less full than they were a year earlier. European stocks were filled to about 94.5pc of capacity on the morning of 7 October, according to GIE transparency platform data, down from 96.7pc a year earlier. Demand has already stepped up strongly in some countries, pushing the continent to some days of net withdrawals from storage earlier in the autumn than in most recent years. While coal prices have also stepped up slightly in turn, partly in reaction to the expectations of higher coal burn, their slower upwards momentum has brought coal largely ahead of gas in the merit order. Many coal trading firms have banked on a strong coal burn this winter, with low trading activity in the shoulder season so far, which incentivises trading companies to keep coal prices close to the fuel-switching level, market participants have told Argus . And prompt prices for European CO2 emissions allowances in September and October so far have been about 20pc lower on the year, closing at an average of €64.24/t, compared with €81.60/t over the same period in 2023. Lower emissions prices benefit higher coal burn as coal is more CO2-intensive than gas, requiring operators to purchase and surrender more CO2 emissions certificates. A similar price movement happened last autumn, when a rally in early October pushed the TTF front-month price to the top of the fuel-switching range. But from early December, when a mild winter reduced the remaining risks for gas security of supply, prices fell through the fuel-switching ranges sharply , to the bottom of the range. Impact probably highest in Germany Germany is one of the last remaining markets with large numbers of both coal- and gas-fired power stations in Europe, leaving the market able to react to price movements in either market more flexibly. The power sector can still provide considerable demand-side flexibility in the German gas market, while coal phase-out plans in the rest of Europe mean the scope for alternating between the thermal generation fuels has narrowed. Gas prices can provide the signal that the market has spare gas for the power sector to burn by falling into coal-to-gas switching territory, while gas prices climb above the fuel-switching range to discourage gas-fired generation when the gas market is tighter. Last winter, gas prices at the very bottom of the fuel-switching range encouraged the highest gas-fired generation in Germany in at least a decade , according to data from European system operators' association Entso-E. While many German coal and gas-fired plants are combined-heat-and-power plants, which do not respond to price incentives as flexibly as pure power plants, the impact of the fuel switch on gas' share in the thermal generation mix was still visible last winter in Germany. In October and November, with prices at the top of the range, gas-fired generation at 6GW met 55pc of the combined call on coal and gas. But when prices dropped through the switching range, gas' share increased to 63pc in December-March, with about 7.3GW of gas-fired generation ( see generation percentage graph ). In addition, the German storage levy of €2.50/MWh, which power producers must pay, pushes gas prices up further in the fuel-switching range. The levy, which is likely to rise further from next year , thus further decreases gas' profitability compared with coal, which could be detrimental for Germany's own coal phase-out plans. By Till Stehr TTF front-month vs fuel-switching range €/MWh German gas- and coal-fired generation and fuel-switching price pc, €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet

08/10/24

German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet

London, 8 October (Argus) — Hard coal-fired output from German utilities dropped by 23pc on the year in July-September, largely driven by a smaller generation capacity following a series of plant retirements or returning to grid reserve in the first half of 2024. German hard coal-fired generation averaged 2.1GW in the third quarter, according to European grid operator Entso-E. Compared with a year ago this was equivalent to around 505,000t of NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal consumption, assuming 40pc efficiency plants. September output reached a seven-month high of 2.9GW, but it was down by 15pc from a year earlier. Germany's overall available hard coal-fired capacity was 6.5GW in September, cut by 1.6GW on the year, based on European Energy Exchange (EEX) data. The German hard coal fleet's implied load factor was 45pc in September, slightly higher than 41pc from a year ago. Trianel was the German utility with the highest hard coal-fired generation in July-September, as it raised the output from its sole 750MW hard coal plant Lunen 1 in northwest Germany by 28pc on the year to 380MW. Oynx meanwhile produced the second-highest hard coal output in the third quarter, averaging 352MW, as it was the generator with the sharpest rise in coal burn from a year earlier at 53pc. This was despite the company closing its 350MW Farge plant in March. Phase-out weigh on coal burn Uniper was Germany's largest hard coal-fired operator in the third quarter of last year, but its hard coal output halved on the year to just 316MW in July-September because the utility took off the bulk of its fleet from the market. Only the 1.05GW Datteln 4 plant was running in the third quarter, given Uniper placed its four other hard coal-fired units — the 345MW Scholven B, 345MW Scholven C, 522MW Staudinger 5 and 875MW Heyden 4 — into the grid reserve earlier this year. The company could no longer run hard coal plants within Germany in the near future as it seeks to sell Datteln 4 plant . Similarly, fellow utility EnBW transferred its 517MW Karlsruhe RDK 7 into the reserve in late May, which contributed to a 35pc on-year fall in its total hard coal-fired generation to 248MW in July-September. Steag took off a larger capacity of hard coal assets — around 2GW from three sites in Saarland — from the market in the first half, resulting in a 32pc drop on the year to 99MW in the third quarter. Smaller operators likewise exited coal this year, with Bremen-based SWB shutting down its 119MW Hastedt 15 hard coal-fired unit in the end of April. The municipal utility has already replaced Hastedt 15 with a 104MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant . In addition, Czech utility EPH retired the 690MW Mehrum 3 plant in late March, having returned to the market in August 2022. Elsewhere, Wolfsburg-based industrial user Volkswagen decommissioned its two 138MW coal-fired units in March as the company opted for coal-to-gas fuel switching. Firm renewables supress thermal generation Wind and solar output rose on the year in the third quarter, crowding out not only hard coal but also gas and lignite within the German power mix. Combined wind and solar generation averaged 23.3GW during July-September, up by 12pc on the year. Solar output alone picked up by 2.1GW, owing to a higher load factor and increased installed capacity. Considering hydro and biomass generation also incrementally rose on the year in the third quarter, the overall strength in renewables meant Germany had to cut down thermal power output and cross-border imports in a bid to balance out with the demand, which only rose by 3pc on the year to 54.8GW in the same period. Consequently, thermal generation from hard coal, gas and lignite all fell on the year in the third quarter, but lignite dropped to 7.4GW at a slower rate of just 4pc compared with other fuels because of its low fuel procurement cost. German lignite-fired plants typically source their fuel from nearby mines. German gas-fired output was down by 26pc on the year to 7.1GW in July-September, in part owing to theoretical spark spreads deteriorating from a year earlier. In the beginning of the third quarter, a typical 55pc-efficient gas-fired plant using German VTP supplies was ahead of a 40pc-efficient German hard coal-fired unit on a month-ahead basis, but in the end of the quarter, such coal-gas fuel switching dynamics flipped (see chart). Ronald Kim DE month ahead fuel switching € MWh €/MWh DE coal output by operator GW GW DE hard coal-fired output GW GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

08/10/24

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

London, 8 October (Argus) — Last month was the second hottest September on record globally, after September 2023, with average temperatures 0.73°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to data from the EU climate-monitoring service Copernicus. Last month's average temperatures globally were 1.54°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels and September's average was the 14th month in a 15-month period when the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature for the 12 months to September was the second highest on record for any 12-month period — 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The January–September 2024 global-average temperature was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for the period and 0.19°C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is almost certain that 2024 will turn out to be the warmest year on record, Copernicus said. The average temperature over European land for September 2024 was 1.74°C above the 1991-2020 average for September, making it the second warmest September on record for Europe after September 2023, which was 2.51°C above average. Last month also had exceptionally high rainfall levels across much of the continent, with widespread floods across central Europe. Last year was the hottest on record , averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial temperatures. By Gavin Attridge Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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