US inflation slows to 2.5pc in August

Spanish Market: Metals, Natural gas
11/09/24

US inflation slowed in August to the lowest rate since February 2021, marking a fifth month of easing inflationary pressures and paving the way for a widely expected cut in the Federal Reserve's target rate next week.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 2.5pc in August from 2.9pc in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.2pc in August, matching the July reading, largely due to an uptick in monthly shelter costs.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled an 83pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point at next week's Fed policy meeting from 66pc odds Tuesday. Probabilities of a half point cut fell to 17pc from 34pc the prior day.

The energy index contracted by an annual 4pc in August, following a 1.1pc gain in July, while the gasoline index contracted by 10.3pc in August, accelerating from a 2.2pc decline in July. Energy services eased to an annual gain of 3.1pc following gains of 4.2pc in July.

Food costs rose by 2.1pc in August, slowing from a 2.2pc gain in July. Shelter rose by 5.2pc after a 5.1pc gain in July. Transportation services rose by 7.9pc in August, slowing from 8.8pc in July.

Headline CPI rose by 0.2pc in August from the prior month, matching July's monthly gain. Core CPI accelerated a tick to 0.3pc in August following a monthly 0.2pc gain in July, largely as shelter rose to 0.5pc from a prior 0.4pc and transportation services surged to a 0.9pc monthly gain from 0.4pc.

After falling to 3.1pc in January, inflation reaccelerated to as high as 3.5pc in March, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold off on widely expected rate cuts after holding its target rate at 23-year highs since July 2023 to contain inflation, which surged as high as 9.1pc in June 2022.

By Bob Willis

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20/05/25

GFG puts Australian Mn plant on care and maintenance

Sydney, 20 May (Argus) — UK-owned steelmaker GFG Alliances has placed its Liberty Bell Bay manganese alloy smelter in Tasmania into care and maintenance over manganese ore supply issues, Tasmanian minister for business, industry and resources Eric Abetz said on 19 May. GFG is committed to the long term success of the Liberty Bell smelter and expects the pause to be temporary, a company spokesperson told Argus on 20 May. The Tasmanian state government is working with GFG and the Australian federal government to address challenges at the plant. It has also asked prime minister Anthony Albanese to support Liberty Bell, state premier Jeremy Rockcliff said on 20 May. Liberty Bell Bay is Australia's only ferroalloy plant and is permitted to produce a combined total of 290,000 t/yr of ferromanganese and silicomanganese. GFG sources Liberty Bell Bay's manganese ore from Australian metal producer South32's Australian Gemco mine and South African sites, which have faced recent production disruptions because of bad weather and maintenance shutdowns. Cyclone Megan flooded and damaged parts of Gemco in March 2024, taking it off line for four months. South32 closed the mine again in January-March 2025 to complete mine dewatering work. South32 also cut manganese production at its South African operations by 10pc on the year in January-March because of scheduled maintenance work and an unplanned shutdown at its Wessels mine. Gemco's manganese production is forecast to reach approximately 5mn t in the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June, the Northern Territory state government said in a budget announcement. South32 has not released its Gemco production guidance for 2025-26. Liberty Bell Bay's production pause comes after the South Australian state government placed GFG's 1.2mn t/yr Whyalla steelworks into administration in February. The state government later announced plans to transfer control of the Whyalla port from GFG to the steelwork's administrators. Liberty Bell Bay is one of only six facilities in Tasmania covered under Australia's federal safeguard mechanism. It received 8,762 safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year as its covered scope 1 emissions of 196,125t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) were below its baseline of 204,887t of CO2e. Two facilities operated by GFG — the Whyalla steelworks and the Middleback Range iron ore mine — ended the compliance year in an excess emissions situation because they were in administration, according to the Clean Energy Regulator (CER). By Avinash Govind and Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's CATL raises $4.6bn from Hong Kong IPO

20/05/25

China's CATL raises $4.6bn from Hong Kong IPO

Beijing, 20 May (Argus) — China's largest battery producer CATL has raised $4.6bn from the sale of 135.6mn of its shares on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today. This is likely to be the world's largest initial public offering (IPO) in 2025. CATL's shares hit a high of HK$299.80 ($38.40) in the morning trading session, up by 14pc from its listing price of HK$263. CATL's Hong Kong IPO is expected to enhance its international brand influence and finance its expansions in the global battery market, according to industry participants. CATL is not only a battery component manufacturer and system solution provider, but also aims to be a pioneer of the global zero-carbon economy, said company chairman Zeng Yuqun at the listing ceremony. The world's total investments in vehicle electrification will hit $3 trillion by 2030, and more than $10 trillion will be invested in renewable energy by 2050, according to CATL. CATL's electric vehicle battery installations rose by 40pc on the year to 84.9 GWh in January-March, accounting for 38pc of the world's total installations, data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research show. Its total battery capacity is projected to reach 700-1,000 GWh/yr in 2025, making it the world's first TWh-level battery manufacturer, according to market participants. The firm has been accelerating expansions outside China in recent years, with projects in Germany, Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia. The company is also facing geopolitical pressure because of the US' higher tariffs on Chinese battery imports and accusations by some US politicians of having supply chain connections to forced labour. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU gas stockbuild rises further in 1H May

19/05/25

EU gas stockbuild rises further in 1H May

London, 19 May (Argus) — Injections into EU gas storage facilities quickened in the first half of May from the second half of April, remaining above the previous two years' pace. Net injections across the EU averaged 3.42 TWh/d on 1-15 May, up from 2.7 TWh/d in the previous two weeks and 2.82 TWh/d over the same period of 2024, the most recent data from EU transparency body GIE show ( see injections graph ). The stockbuild was also slightly higher than on 1-15 May 2023, although below the 3.74 TWh/d average in 2018-22. The EU needs a strong stockbuild this summer to close the gap to the two-year average, as storage facilities entered this summer at a much lower base of 388TWh in store, or just 34pc of overall technical capacity. Stocks have since increased to 497TWh as of the morning of 16 May, but this remains 238TWh lower than the 16 May average in 2023-24, although much closer to the 2018-22 average of 503TWh ( see stocks graph ). The German government's recent decree lowering the country's storage target to 70pc by 1 November from 90pc previously reduces required injections in the EU's biggest storage market, although operator Sefe's continued failure to market significant capacity at Rehden may require a strong stockbuild late in the season. And European legislators' push to drop the EU-wide target to 83pc and to essentially abolish intermediary fill targets further decreases the pressure to inject immediately, but could lead to some firms taking a wait-and-see approach while the legislation is finalised. Prompt prices across major European hubs have dropped to significant discounts to the front-winter price so far this month, incentivising injections. The TTF day-ahead price averaged €34.32/MWh on 1-15 May and the balance-of-month €34.37/MWh, each well below the average for the winter 2025-26 contract of €35.92/MWh. An even larger gap opened up in Germany, with the day-ahead on average €2.32/MWh below the winter and the balance-of-month €2.25/MWh beneath it. Sendout from EU LNG terminals remained strong at 4.3 TWh/d on 1-15 May, slightly down from 4.4 TWh/d in the second half of April but well above 3 TWh/d over the same period of 2024. Chinese LNG demand has continued to hold much weaker on the year after a mild winter that left stocks high, along with booming domestic production and stronger pipeline imports from Russia. This has meant that Europe has faced less competition for marginal cargoes. Additionally, a slight drop in gas demand for power generation has left more gas available to add to storage than a year earlier. The EU's gas-fired power generation slipped to 23.1GW on 1-15 May from 23.7GW a year earlier, according to data from Fraunhofer ISE. By Brendan A'Hearn EU net injections GWh/d EU stocks TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US LNG developers brush off tariff concerns

19/05/25

US LNG developers brush off tariff concerns

Houston, 19 May (Argus) — The US' biggest LNG developers have little worry over potential costs from President Donald Trump's 25pc steel and aluminum import tariffs as they prepare to spend billions building new export infrastructure. The top exporters of US LNG so far in 2025 — Cheniere, Venture Global and Sempra — are pushing ahead with plans for new terminals and expansions, dismissing concerns that Trump's protectionist trade policy could throttle projects that would help add more than 80mn t/yr (12bn cf/d) of capacity to the world's largest supplier of LNG by 2030. Sempra and Venture Global both estimate that just 1pc of capital expenditure for the first phases of their respective Port Arthur and CP2 projects is exposed to tariffs. Sempra plans to spend $13bn on the 13.5mn t/yr first phase of the Port Arthur, Texas, project. Venture Global expects to spend $27bn-28bn on both phases of the 28mn t/yr CP2 plant in Louisiana, but has yet to reach a final investment decision for phase 1. About 90pc of the Port Arthur project's spending is with domestic suppliers and contractors, Sempra chief executive Jeffrey Martin told investors in an earnings call on 8 May, with steel for the first liquefaction train fully sourced in the US. The two-train first phase is expected to have its trains on line in 2027 and 2028. Disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic had already forced the company to identify and adapt to risks in the supply chain. "We expect those diversified sources to help us better manage and mitigate tariff risks," Sempra chief financial officer Karen Sedgwick said. She later added that the firm preemptively began importing materials for Port Arthur LNG into a foreign trade zone in February, a tactic that can reduce or delay duties payments . Neither of Venture Global's existing 12.4mn t/yr Calcasieu Pass and 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines plants in Louisiana faces tariff risks, chief executive Mike Sabel told investors on 13 May. But up to $350mn of materials in the 20.2mn t/yr first phase of CP2 are subject to duties. The 26 prefabricated trains in phase 1 are being built in Italy and represent the largest exposure (see table) . Venture Global expects 12 of those trains to arrive in Louisiana by the end of the year. Inflation and high interest rates represent a bigger threat, Sabel said, calling it "probably the toughest environment to build our projects since the 1970s". "It's something we work and live every day because of the scale of construction we're doing," said Sabel, whose company has 73.8mn t/yr of capacity in development. Sempra expects to make a final investment decision on the 13.5mn t/yr second phase of Port Arthur LNG by the end of 2025. Venture Global is eyeing a decision on CP2's first phase by mid-2025. ‘Our best salesmen for US LNG' Cheniere, the largest LNG exporter in the US, faces no tariff risks at its 11.45mn t/yr Corpus Christi, Texas, stage 3 expansion. The seven-train project "is basically complete", chief executive Jack Fusco told investors on 8 May, with all materials on site and construction ongoing. The company expects to have the first four trains producing LNG by the end of the year and plans to reach an investment decision this year to add trains 8 and 9. The largest portion of spending for those trains will be on labor, and "a fair amount" of equipment and materials will be sourced domestically, limiting tariff exposure, Fusco said. The company has already spent $500mn in early procurement. Cheniere also plans to jump on what it sees as a friendly permitting window under the Trump administration and add about 17mn t/yr to its existing 33mn t/yr Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana. Fusco said he has been meeting with administration officials in Washington to discuss trade issues and how LNG fits in Trump's energy agenda. The first Trump administration "were some of our best salesmen for US LNG, and that's continued during the president's current administration", Fusco said. Since taking office in January, Trump's administration has worked to buttress the US LNG industry, quickly ending the Biden administration's pause on issuing licenses to export to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the US and making it easier for projects to receive extensions for such licenses. But the new projects by Cheniere, Venture Global and Sempra may benefit from having already been in at least preliminary development when Trump unveiled the metals tariffs in February. For developers in earlier phases who are just now procuring supplies, "it's a different story", Alex Whittington, director of international affairs at Cheniere, told a conference in April. By Tray Swanson Venture Global CP2 Phase 1 - Tariff Exposure Component Country of Origin Delivery Status Tariff Exposure Liquefaction trains Italy First module delivery in mid-2025 $145mn-255mn Pre-treatment modules Fabricated in US First module delivery in mid-2026 $10mn-20mn Power island components US, Europe, Vietnam Delivered, major equipment in US storage $3mn-5mn Piperack modules, structural steel and pipe Various Piperack and structural steel procured $6mn-10mn Balance of plant Various Major bulk materials procured $40mn-50mn LNG tanks Various 9pc nickel steel plate and pipe piles procured $6mn-10mn Total $210mn-350mn — Venture Global Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU, UK to ‘work towards’ linking carbon markets

19/05/25

EU, UK to ‘work towards’ linking carbon markets

London, 19 May (Argus) — The EU and UK agreed to work towards linking their respective emissions trading systems (ETS), as part of their common understanding agreement concluded at a summit in London today. "The European Commission and the United Kingdom share the view that a functioning link between carbon markets would address many of the issues raised in respect of trade and a level playing field," the agreement states. A linking agreement should exempt both jurisdictions from their respective carbon border adjustment mechanisms, according to the common understanding, and the linked systems should cover power and industrial heat generation, and domestic and international maritime and aviation emissions. The statement specifically states that any link "should not constrain the European Union and the United Kingdom from pursuing higher environmental ambition". It also underlines that the UK ETS's supply cap and its emissions reduction pathway are "guided by" the country's Climate Change Act and nationally determined contributions to the Paris climate agreement, and that these should be "at least as ambitious" as the EU's. The UK has legally binding targets to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 68pc by 2030 and 81pc by 2035, both compared with 1990 levels. The EU aims to cut its net GHG emissions by 55pc by 2030, and is yet to set a 2035 target. Both jurisdictions are targeting net zero emissions by 2050, while they share the "same interests" in addressing climate change, commission president Ursula von der Leyen said today. Linking the systems would "save British businesses £800mn in EU carbon taxes", UK prime minister Keir Starmer said today, without specifying a timeframe for the savings. A study commissioned by a range of utilities and published last week found that linking the two systems would save up to €1.2bn on lower hedging costs resulting from improved market liquidity and lower bid-offer spreads. Today's agreement provides no timeline for linking the systems. The process to negotiate and link the Swiss ETS to the EU's scheme took almost 10 years. Alongside plans to work towards linking the EU and UK ETS, the jurisdictions also alluded in the agreement to continuing "technical regulatory exchanges" on energy technologies including hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and biomethane. And they will "explore in detail the necessary parameters" for the UK's potential participation in the EU's internal power market. By Victoria Hatherick and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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