Francine sets sights on Louisiana coast: Update

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Freight, Natural gas
11/09/24

Updates the status of ports in Texas.

Hurricane Francine, which has already shut in almost a quarter of the Gulf of Mexico's oil output, is set to strengthen before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening.

Francine was about 150 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, according to an 10am ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. The hurricane will bring 5-10 foot storm surge to coastal areas from Vermillion Bay to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and after landfall is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night bringing heavy rains.

Ports along the hurricane's path announced traffic restrictions in advance, with some setting out plans to close until it passes, including the port of New Orleans.

With the storm's track locked in toward Louisiana, the port of Houston was expected to reopen to inbound vessels at 1pm ET today and to outbound vessels at 3:30pm, a ship agent said. It closed to traffic at 1pm Tuesday. The ports of Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange also plan to reopen Wednesday.

About 412,070 b/d of offshore oil output was off line by midday on Tuesday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), as offshore operators including Chevron, Shell and ExxonMobil evacuated workers and curbed operations as a precaution. About 494mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 26pc of the region's output, was also off line.

The Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production.

By Stephen Cunningham and Tray Swanson

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03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Libya lifts force majeure as oil blockade ends

03/10/24

Libya lifts force majeure as oil blockade ends

London, 3 October (Argus) — Libya has begun to ramp up crude production after state-owned NOC lifted force majeure on all fields and terminals today. This should restore Libya's crude production to more than 1.2mn b/d, from an estimated 500,000 b/d. NOC declared force majeure after much of Libya's output was forced offline by a blockade imposed by the country's eastern-based administration in late August. Libya's eastern-based parliament earlier this week approved an agreement to resolve a leadership crisis at the central bank, which had prompted the blockade. NOC also lifted force majeure at the El Sharara oil field, which was shut down before the blockade. Output at the field, which normally produces about 260,000-270,000 b/d, has started, a source told Argus . By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran: Update

02/10/24

US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran: Update

Updates with additional comments by President Biden starting in second paragraph. Washington, 2 October (Argus) — US president Joe Biden today called on Israel to keep its expected retaliatory strike proportionate after an Iranian missile attack on Tuesday. "We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do," Biden told reporters. The US and other G7 countries agree "that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion", he said. The US would not support an attack by Israel on sites associated with Iran's nuclear program, Biden said. For its part, the immediate US response would include new sanctions, he said. Biden reached out to fellow leaders of the G7 group of advanced democracies on Wednesday "to coordinate on a response to this attack, including new sanctions", the White House said. The US Treasury Department today imposed sanctions on two additional tankers allegedly engaged in transporting Iranian crude to China. The Gabon-flagged Izumo and the Marshall Islands-flagged Frunze allegedly also transported Russian crude in contravention of the G7 price cap on Russian exports, Treasury said. Including today's action, the US sanctions list now totals 302 tankers and other vessels accused of facilitating Iran's oil and other commodity exports since 2019, including 68 tankers added by Treasury's sanctions enforcement arm this year. That has not succeeded in stopping the flow of Iranian crude to China, as Tehran has developed a sophisticated network of intermediaries and "shadow fleet" tankers to bypass US sanctions. Biden, who ordered US naval and military assets in the region to shoot down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, promptly declared Tehran's barrage of missiles to have been ineffective. The nearly 200 missiles launched by Iran appeared to be targeting military sites but did not cause significant damage, and the only reported fatality is of a Palestinian civilian in the West Bank, according to the White House. The White House is holding consultations with Israel to help shape its response to the attack. "Iran made a big mistake and it will pay for it," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the Iranian attack, which came hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Netanyahu referenced the aerial strikes that decapitated the leadership of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, noting that "the regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies". Tehran, in turn, said "we will respond in a more severe manner" if Israel retaliates with strikes against Iran. A previous Iranian missile attack on Israel in April led to a restrained Israeli retaliation on targets inside Iran, with the US, China and other regional powers intervening to prevent a further escalation. The Biden administration has tried to balance support for Israel's self-defense with efforts to prevent an escalation of the conflict that could engulf the world's largest oil producing region on the eve of the 5 November US presidential election. The Iran-Israel confrontation featured at Tuesday's televised debate between the US vice-presidential candidates, but neither offered an explicit plan for how the US should respond to the Iranian attack. The response from US lawmakers similarly fell along partisan lines, with the Democrats backing efforts by the White House to prevent further escalation, while the Republicans called for a stronger response. Iranian "oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror", senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) said. Graham made similar calls in April and in October 2023, at the outset of the Gaza conflict. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran attack

02/10/24

US tries to shape Israel's response to Iran attack

Washington, 2 October (Argus) — US president Joe Biden's administration is working to moderate a likely retaliatory strike by Israel after an Iranian missile attack on Tuesday. The US would not support an attack by Israel on sites associated with Iran's nuclear program, Biden told reporters today. Biden reached out to fellow leaders of the G7 group of advanced democracies today "to coordinate on a response to this attack, including new sanctions," the White House said. The US Treasury Department today imposed sanctions on two additional tankers allegedly engaged in transporting Iranian crude to China. The Gabon-flagged Izumo and the Marshall Islands-flagged Frunze allegedly also transported Russian crude in contravention of the G7 price cap on Russian exports, Treasury said. Including today's action, the US sanctions list now totals 302 tankers and other vessels accused of facilitating Iran's oil and other commodity exports since 2019, including 68 tankers added by Treasury's sanctions enforcement arm this year. That has not succeeded in stopping the flow of Iranian crude to China, as Tehran has developed a sophisticated network of intermediaries and "shadow fleet" tankers to bypass US sanctions. Biden, who ordered US naval and military assets in the region to shoot down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, promptly declared Tehran's barrage of missiles to have been ineffective. The White House is holding consultations with Israel to help shape its response to the attack. "Iran made a big mistake and it will pay for it," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the Iranian attack, which came hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Netanyahu referenced the aerial strikes that decapitated the leadership of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, noting that "the regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies." Tehran, in turn, said "we will respond in a more severe manner" if Israel retaliates with strikes against Iran. The previous Iranian missile attack on Israel, in April, led to a restrained Israeli retaliation on targets inside Iran, with the US, China and other regional powers intervening to prevent a further escalation. The Biden administration has tried to balance support for Israel's self-defense with efforts to prevent an escalation of the conflict that could engulf the world's largest oil producing region on the eve of the 5 November US presidential election. The Iran-Israel confrontation featured at Tuesday's televised debate between the US vice-presidential candidates, but neither offered an explicit plan for how the US should respond to the Iranian attack. The response from US lawmakers similarly fell along partisan lines, with the Democrats backing efforts by the White House to prevent further escalation, while the Republicans called for a stronger response. Iranian "oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror," senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) said. Graham made similar calls in April and in October 2023, at the outset of the Gaza conflict. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Thailand's gas production key to future LNG imports

02/10/24

Thailand's gas production key to future LNG imports

Singapore, 2 October (Argus) — Thailand's state-controlled upstream firm PTTEP has bet on increasing gas production at the country's largest and oldest Erawan field as the key to reduce Thailand's reliance on LNG imports. This comes as international prices of the super-chilled fuel continue to be rocked by volatility. But casting the spotlight on Erawan could result in the company neglecting to focus on the declining production at other gas fields in Thailand, as well as on similarly vulnerable pipeline gas supplies from Myanmar. Aside from Erawan, Thailand has a group of smaller gas fields, with Bongkot, Bongkot Tai, Pailin and Arthit among the ones with larger production volumes. The eight other gas fields, namely Tan Tawan, Phu Horm, Sirikit, Lanta, Nam Phong, Jasmin, Yoong Thong and the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area, produce much smaller volumes. It is noteworthy that gas production from the smaller gas fields has been on a steady decline since January 2023, and has consistently been below 1mn t every month. Production at Erawan has also been declining over most of 2022-23, but has since ramped up to hit PTTEP's target to achieve 800mn ft³/d (8.2bn m³/yr) of gas production at Erawan by April. Gas production at the Bongkot gas field has similarly showed a promising jump, from well below 400,000 t/month in March 2023 to at least 500,000 t/month since October 2023. But overall domestic gas production in Thailand has held mostly steady, in part because of efforts to ramp up production at Erawan. This has effectively offset lower production at smaller gas fields since 2023. Domestic gas production between January-July averaged around 2.14mn t/month, higher from the monthly average of 1.995mn t in 2023 and the monthly average of 2.072mn t in 2022. Myanmar's largest gas field, the offshore Yadana project, supplies around half of Myanmar's commercial capital Yangon's power needs. The field produces around 6bn m³/yr of gas, of which 70pc is exported to Thailand, where it is sold to state-controlled PTT, and 30pc goes to state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas (Moge) for domestic use. But Moge has fallen under military control since a February 2021 military coup. This resulted in the US adding another layer of economic restrictions against Moge, which prohibits US-affiliated companies from providing financial services to the company. This could make it increasingly difficult for Thailand to purchase pipeline gas from Myanmar in the future as pipeline gas from the country may eventually reduce or even cease. But given that Myanmar pipeline supplies are marginal to begin with, a complete cessation of pipeline gas imports should be easily resolved through importing additional LNG to make up for the shortfall, traders in Thailand said. LNG imports into Thailand totalled 8.13mn t in 2022, before significantly increasing to 11.32mn t in 2023, according to customs data. Imports into the country so far over January-August stand at 8.2mn t, well on track to potentially surpass 2023 import volumes. By Rou Urn Lee and Naomi Ong Thailand's domestic gas production % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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