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India’s higher LNG regas rates receive customer flak

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 13/09/24

Indian LNG terminal developers led by state-run Petronet LNG and Shell are charging some of the highest rates among the world to regasify LNG, prompting consumers to complain, raising concerns over the government's plan to more than double the share of gas in the country's energy mix to 15pc by 2030.

Petronet is charging as much as Rs62.91/mn Btu ($0.75/mn Btu) to regasify the fuel received at the 17.5mn t/yr Dahej terminal on the west coast, the country's largest such facility, according to consumers using the import facility.

Coupled with the annual escalation in charges, the rates are "unsustainable in the longer-run," a person who did not wish to be identified said.

"Going by the 5pc increase in regas rates every year, by 2030, regas rates could become Rs84/mn Btu ($1/mn Btu), which is not justified," the source added. State-run Petronet has lifted regasification rates by 5pc in recent years.

"The 5pc hike in regas rates every year may eventually have to stop in the coming years before it reaches a dollar," an equity analyst at a foreign investment bank said.

Shell is also charging similar rates at its 5.2mn t/yr Hazira LNG import facility on the west coast at $0.75/mn Btu, industry sources said. Both Dahej and Hazira are well connected to consumption centres by pipelines and operate year-round, unlike many of India's other terminals which suffer from lack of a breakwater facility or weak pipeline connectivity.

Higher regas prices account for the lower usage levels in other terminals, because the country's overall LNG imports are lower than major importers like China or Japan, market participants say.

India's regasification rates are much higher compared to terminals in the Europe. The 9.2mn t/yr Gate terminal in Netherland charges around $0.35/mn Btu for unloading and regasification, while Spain is much lower. Regasification rates in Japan LNG terminals are around $0.5/mn Btu, while rates at terminals operated by Jera, like the 22.9mn t/yr Futtsu LNG facility, are much lower, according to market participants.

Regasification rates in China, however, are also higher, on a par with India as PipeChina's eight LNG terminals, including the largest 12mn t/yr Tianjin terminal in north China, and 6mn t/yr Dalian terminal in Liaoning. These are charging $0.7-1.3/mn Btu for unloading and regasification, sources say.

Regas rates across the world are mostly determined by market forces based on demand fundamentals compared with fixed prices charged by Indian terminal operators.

But record regasification rates have not stopped city gas utilities and industries from using Petronet and Shell's terminals to import the fuel, enabling Petronet to operate Dahej at around 109pc in April-June, a record for the facility, according to oil ministry data.

Hazira, which in the past has operated at over 80pc, operated at 46.5pc in the second quarter.

Capacity usage at LNG terminals in Europe, China and Japan are mostly in the range of 30-50pc, and the rest of India's five terminals with a combined 25mn tons a year in capacity operate at 20-40pc of that.

Judging by deliveries in January-July this year, India's LNG imports stood at 16mn t, compared to an annual installed import capacity of 47.7mn t.

Strategic location

Importers in the country have little option of switching to other facilities because of the strategic location of Dahej and Hazira, which are well connected by major pipelines to the country's western region — where consumption is strong.

The cost structure breakdown for a customer comes to $11.62/mn Btu at the Dahej terminal, which is calculated based on a delivered LNG price at $10/mn Btu, custom duty of 2.75pc at $0.275/mn Btu, regas price at $0.76/mn Btu, system used gas at $0.07/mn Btu and zone 1 pipeline tariff at $0.51.

Tariffs under zone 2 are $0.95/mn btu and zone 3 is at $1.27/mn Btu. The zone 1 tariff is application for pipelines defined as up to 300km from the terminal, followed by between 300-1,200km for zone 2 and zone 3 more than 1,200km.

Regulatory scrutiny

Weak capacity utilisation levels in India's LNG terminals have attracted the attention of India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), as it issued a draft proposal for enhanced regulatory control earlier this year.

The draft regulations state the PNGRB must approve new facilities or capacity additions, review regasification fees and approve setting up pipeline infrastructure for regasified LNG.

Terminal operators are reluctant to share information with the regulator. Total Adani, operator of the 5mn t/yr Dhamra LNG terminal on the east coast, said "requirement to share commercially sensitive information" such as project costs, regasification tariffs and capacity allocation are "not consistent" with the PNGRB Act. "An authorisation regime for LNG terminals may indeed negatively impact healthy competition and create monopolistic behaviour by the existing terminals."

Each project would require a certification of registration by PNGRB, and may even face penalties if there are any start-up delays. Developers will also need to publicly disclose their regasification tariffs and other charges for transparency.


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08/10/24

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

London, 8 October (Argus) — Last month was the second hottest September on record globally, after September 2023, with average temperatures 0.73°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to data from the EU climate-monitoring service Copernicus. Last month's average temperatures globally were 1.54°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels and September's average was the 14th month in a 15-month period when the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature for the 12 months to September was the second highest on record for any 12-month period — 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The January–September 2024 global-average temperature was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for the period and 0.19°C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is almost certain that 2024 will turn out to be the warmest year on record, Copernicus said. The average temperature over European land for September 2024 was 1.74°C above the 1991-2020 average for September, making it the second warmest September on record for Europe after September 2023, which was 2.51°C above average. Last month also had exceptionally high rainfall levels across much of the continent, with widespread floods across central Europe. Last year was the hottest on record , averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial temperatures. By Gavin Attridge Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update


07/10/24
07/10/24

CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) agreed to buy a 20pc stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and 70pc interest in the Duvernay shale from Chevron for $6.5bn, extending its lead as Canada's top producer. The all-cash transaction has an effective date retroactive to 1 September, the companies said Monday. Closing is expected during the fourth quarter. The assets being sold accounted for about 84,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) of production, net of royalties, to Chevron last year. Chevron last October announced plans to acquire US independent Hess for $53bn, pledging to sell $10bn-$15bn of assets by 2028. While the Hess deal has been delayed by a mid-2025 arbitration hearing, Chevron, the second-largest US oil producer, has increasingly focused its attention on the Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, as well as an expansion project in Kazakhstan. CNRL's acquisition bolsters its position as Canada's largest petroleum producer after pumping out 1.29mn boe/d of oil and gas in the second quarter this year. About 72pc came from oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), with the balance from natural gas. CNRL anticipates the oil sands and Duvernay assets will lift the company's production profile by about 122,500 boe/d in 2025. About half, or 62,500 b/d, will come in the form of synthetic crude oil produced from AOSP's 320,000 b/d Scotford upgrader near Edmonton, Alberta. The upgrader is fed diluted bitumen piped from the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines in the oil sands region. The deal would increase CNRL's stake in AOSP to 90pc. Calgary-based CNRL first made its foray into AOSP in 2017 when it bought a 70pc stake from Shell and Marathon Oil Canada for $9.75bn ($C$12.74bn). Muskeg River and Jackpine are adjacent to the company's fully owned Horizon mine and upgrader, and the increase in ownership may allow for increased synergies between the two assets, according to executives. "It allows for a little bit more ease in terms of governance on the asset," CNRL president Scott Stauth said Monday on an investor call. "I can see us utilizing the equipment more effectively between the two sites." Undeveloped oil sands projects Also included in Monday's deal are additional stakes in undeveloped oil sands leases that CNRL could tap as it works through its reserves. This includes a 20pc increase the Pierre River project that would provide CNRL with 90pc ownership; a 60pc increase in the Ells River project that would lift the company's stake to 90pc; a 33pc increase in the Saleski project, for 83pc; and a 6pc working interest in Namur that would reach 65pc. Reserves from Pierre River could be used to extend the life of the Horizon project as the North Mine depletes. A standalone facility there is also possible, but would require a significant capital outlay, CNRL executives said. CNRL in May said it was considering a massive 195,000 b/d increase to its Horizon production using two new technologies. CNRL said production from the light oil and liquids rich assets in the Duvernay is expected to average 60,000 boe/d in 2025, half of which would be natural gas. CNRL anticipates pushing production to 70,000 boe/d by 2027 with more than 340 locations already identified as candidates for drilling. With WTI above $70/bl, "this is a very attractive acquisition for us," CNRL chief financial officer Mark Stainthorpe said. CNRL has been actively acquiring assets in recent years. The company purchased Canadian assets belonging to Painted Pony in 2020, Devon Energy in 2019, TotalEnergies in 2018 and Cenovus Energy in 2017, among other deals. By Stephen Cunningham and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump, Harris run on competing visions for energy


07/10/24
07/10/24

Trump, Harris run on competing visions for energy

Washington, 7 October (Argus) — Energy has emerged as a centrepiece in the US presidential race between Republican candidate former president Donald Trump and Democratic candidate vice-president Kamala Harris, who have repeatedly fought over whose policies would keep domestic energy prices affordable now and in the future. Trump has promised a return to the policies he championed during his first presidential term, when he opened vast tracts of federal land to oil and gas leasing, scrapped rules that would support electric vehicles (EVs), and halted any serious attempts for the federal government to respond to climate change. Trump has embraced "drill, baby, drill" as a core policy plank, which he argues will be an elixir to voters frustrated with inflation and high prices. Vice-president Harris backs an "all-of-the-above" energy policy, her running mate Tim Walz says, and has a further goal to turn the US into a global powerhouse for the types of clean energy manufacturing and EVs that will be needed to make a difference on climate change. But Harris' remark in 2019 that there is "no question I'm in favour of banning fracking" has come to haunt her campaign, despite saying she has dropped that position. Harris says her experience serving as vice-president has shown her that banning fracking was not needed to support a clean energy economy. "As vice-president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking," she says. Even so, Trump has tried to sow doubts among voters that Harris is sincere in her new position, which he hopes will cost her in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a key shale gas producer that accounts for 20pc of US natural gas output. "If she won the election, the day after that election, they'll go back to destroying our country and oil will be dead," Trump says. But Trump's promises on oil and gas — and his attacks on the policies of the Biden-Harris administration — have at times borne little resemblance to reality. Trump claims that if he had won a second term in 2020, oil production would be "four times, five times higher", translating into US crude production in excess of 50mn b/d, or more than half of global production. Trump also says that, if elected, he would cut the price of energy "in half or more within a year of taking office", double electricity production and bring gasoline prices below $2/USG. He will do this through "a national emergency declaration" that will cause a "massive increase" in energy supply, Trump says, although energy analysts say his promises are technically and economically unachievable. Trump's oft-repeated claim that US oil and gas production crashed after he left office is also undercut by basic energy statistics, as is his claim that the US has lost the "energy dominance" it had during his term. The US hit record-high production this year, in excess of 13mn b/d of crude and 100bn ft³/d (1 trillion m³/yr) of gas, while US net petroleum exports climbed to a record high of 1.7mn b/d last year. Regulatory rollback Trump has campaigned heavily on rolling back regulations and cutting energy prices, which he says will persuade manufacturers to "pack up and move their production to America". For every new regulation, he promises to remove "10 old and burdensome regulations from the books", echoing an earlier "two-for-one" regulatory repeal policy he attempted to enforce during his first term in office. Trump has shown particular zeal for eliminating policies he sees as part of the "Green New Scam", a blanket term he uses for clean energy spending under President Joe Biden's signature climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, and climate-related regulations. If Trump's first term serves as a guide, he will again seek to repeal regulations that restrict methane emissions from US oil and gas production, weaken CO2 emission limits for power plants and block tailpipe rules that encourage EVs. "I will end the insane EV mandates," Trump says. Faster permitting will be another top priority, Trump says, after his efforts to pass comprehensive permitting legislation collapsed during his first term. A Harris victory, in contrast, would be key to implementing dozens of climate-related regulations issued under the Biden administration and defending them in court. Expediting federal permitting and "cutting red tape" will also be a priority for a Harris administration, given the impediments it can create for clean energy projects and other infrastructure, according to campaign documents. "No-one can tell me we can't build quickly," Harris says. Federal oil and gas leasing has plunged under Biden, who was unable to carry out campaign promises to ban new leasing but was still able to limit onshore lease sales to 210,000 acres/yr (850 km²/yr) in 2022-23, down from more than 6mn acres/yr in 2018-19 under Trump. Oil and gas groups say expanded federal leasing, particularly in the US Gulf of Mexico, is a top policy priority. Trump has vowed to expand federal oil and gas development if he wins, particularly by enabling drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which he opened to leasing in 2017 but has been held up in reviews since Biden took office. "I'll put ANWR back in play," Trump says. Less clear is how Trump would handle offshore leasing, an issue that backfired in his first term when his push for drilling offshore Florida prompted fury from political leaders in the Republican-led state. Harris has yet to explicitly embrace federal drilling, but she has touted the "record energy production" the US has achieved under the Biden-Harris administration, and supports further growth "so that we never again have to rely on foreign oil", according to campaign documents. A recent bipartisan bill from US senator Joe Manchin suggests there is flexibility from the Democrats on the issue, by offering more federal oil leasing in exchange for fast-tracking electric transmission development. LNG pause in balance Biden's decision earlier this year to pause the licensing of newly-built LNG export terminals has fuelled uncertainty for projects such as Venture Global's 28mn t/yr CP2 project in Louisiana. But the pause is only set to last until early 2025, when the US Department of Energy (DOE) will finish work on a study into whether further exports are in the "public interest" based on factors such as climate change and domestic energy prices. Trump says as soon as he takes office he will approve pending LNG export terminals, which he says are "good for the environment, not bad, and good for our country". Harris has yet to describe her approach to licensing more LNG terminals, the approval of which environmental activists say would be a "climate bomb". But Manchin's permitting bill suggests there is some room for manoeuvre, by requiring the DOE to decide on LNG export licences within 90 days. Oil industry officials are preparing for a fight to retain the existing corporate tax rate of 21pc enacted under Trump in 2017, as Congress is heading towards a "tax cliff" at the end of 2025 that will cost more than $4 trillion to avert. Harris has called for Congress to raise the corporate tax rate to 28pc, but wants new tax credits for industries such as manufacturing. Trump has proposed a lower corporate tax rate of 15pc only "for those who make their product in America". At the same time, Trump's push for an across-the-board import tariff of up to 20pc has alarmed industry officials, who say such a policy would raise consumer prices and potentially trigger a disruptive trade war. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron shuts Gulf platform ahead of Hurricane Milton


07/10/24
07/10/24

Chevron shuts Gulf platform ahead of Hurricane Milton

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Chevron evacuated and shut in its Blind Faith oil and gas production platform in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Hurricane Milton, which has strengthened into a category 5 storm as it barrels toward Florida's west coast. Output from Chevron's other operated facilities in the region remains at normal levels, the company said today. The 65,000 b/d Blind Faith platform is located around 160 miles southeast of New Orleans. Milton, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, was about out 130 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, according to an 11am ET National Hurricane Center advisory. The storm will move through the Campeche Bank offshore region north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula — where state-owned Pemex's largest oil and natural gas production operations are located — today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. On its current track, the hurricane is expected to skirt to the south of the majority of US offshore oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. The region accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. Hurricane Helene temporarily shut in up to 29pc of oil production and 20pc of gas output in the Gulf of Mexico late last month. By Stephen Cunningham Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind


04/10/24
04/10/24

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

New York, 4 October (Argus) — Tightening vessel carbon intensity indicator (CII) scores and looming 2025 FuelEU marine regulation are expected to raise biodiesel demand for bunkering, but non-competitive US prices should continue to weigh down on US bio-bunker demand. Houston B30, a blend of used cooking methyl ester (Ucome) and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), in September averaged at $821/t, a $45/t premium to B30 sold in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and a $55/t premium to B24 sold in the west Mediterranean hub of Gibraltar and Algeciras (see chart) . Houston B30 was also priced at $115/t and $61/t premium to B24 sold in Singapore and Guangzhou, China, respectively. The price premium would continue to incentivize ship owners with global, ocean-going fleets to pick Asia first for their biodiesel bunker purchases, followed by northwest Europe and western Mediterranean. US demand for biodiesel for bunkering would continue to stagnate unless the US passes a legislation allowing Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program be used by ocean-going vessels fueling with biodiesel in US ports. The legislation could level US' price playing field. Two bipartisan bills were put forward in support of renewable fuel for ocean-going vessels, one in the US Senate this year and one in the US House of Representatives last year, but they are currently dead in the water. Conventional marine fuels are priced cheaper than biodiesel and green varieties of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. But tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) and EU regulations are forcing the hand of ship operators to consider green fuels to avoid hefty penalties and having their vessels suspended from trading. Ship owners whose vessels are outfitted with LNG-burning engines, are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025, as fossil LNG is currently ship owners' cheapest low-carbon fuel option. But retrofitting a vessel to burn LNG could range from $5-$35mn, depending on the size of the vessel. Biodiesel, a plug-and-play fuel that does not require a vessel retrofit, is the second cheapest low-carbon fuel option after fossil LNG. IMO's CII regulation came into force in January 2023 and requires vessels over 5,000 gt to report their carbon intensity, which is then scored from A to E. The scoring levels are lowered yearly by about 2pc, so even a vessel with no change in CII could drop from C to D in one year. If a vessel receives a D score three years in a row or E score in the previous year, the vessel owner must submit a corrective actions plan. E scoring vessels could be prohibited from entering some ports' territorial waters, but this penalty is yet to be imposed on any E vessels. In 2023, the IMO reported that 40pc of the vessels scored A or B, 27pc scored C, 19pc scored D or E and 14pc were unresponsive. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. It imposes a penalty of €2,400/t ($2,629/t) of VLSFO equivalent energy for vessel fleets exceeding its GHG limits. By Stefka Wechsler Biodiesel blends* Houston less global ports $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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