France lowers 2024-25 wheat production outlook

Spanish Market: Agriculture
17/09/24

French wheat output in 2024-25, excluding durum, is now estimated at 25.78mn t by French agricultural ministry agency Agreste, down by 540,000t from its August projections.

The agency attributed the cut to unfavourable weather conditions, with average yields estimated at 6.15t/hectare (ha). This compares with average yields pegged at 6.24t/ha in the agency's projections last month.

Agreste now pegs France's durum wheat production at 1.18mn t, down from the 1.19mn t it forecast in August.

Barley estimates also took a hit, with the agency now seeing France's total winter and spring barley production at 10.05mn t, down from 10.4mn t last month.

Spring crops fared better since Agreste's August report, with corn output projections rising to 14.39mn t, up from the 14.01mn t the agency forecast last month. It expects a year-on-year increase in both planted areas and yields for French corn.

And sunflower seed and rapeseed production forecasts were each raised by 10,000t, to 1.86mn t and 3.95mn t, respectively. But less favourable weather means both oilseed crops are scheduled to decline year on year.

By Megan Evans

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11/10/24

Brazil's drought: Northern rivers continue to drop

Sao Paulo, 11 October (Argus) — The worst drought in Brazil's history continues to reduce river levels in the Northern Arc region, hampering navigation on rivers that are used as waterways and are important routes to transport grains and fertilizers. Madeira waterway The waterway links Rondonia state's capital Porto Velho to the Itacoatiara port, in Amazonas state. Itacoatiara port is expected to receive around 78,100 metric tonnes (t) of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from shipping agency Unimar. Status: The situation is critical in Porto Velho on the Madeira waterway, the second largest in the northern region. The state's ports and waterways authority (Soph) halted operations on 23 September because the Madeira River registered the lowest water level since monitoring began in 1967. The Madeira River's depth in Porto Velho decreased to 24cm on 11 October, from 48cm on 2 October, according to monitoring data from the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB). Navigation remains suspended in the port. Amazonas waterway It is the main waterway in Brazil's north, handling around 65pc of the region's cargo, according to the national transportation and infrastructure department (Dnit). It links Amazonas' capital Manaus to Para's capital Belem. Status: The Negro River has also been falling. The depth was at 12.25m at the SGB monitoring point in Manaus on 11 October, down from 12.89m on 2 October. This is an extreme drought level and below the historic low of 12.7m recorded in 121 years of monitoring. Tapajos waterway It is an important waterway to move product from Mato Grosso state's northern area, with the Santarem port, in Para state, as a destination. The Santarem port is expected to receive 90,976t of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from Unimar. Status: The Tapajos-Teles Pires waterway is also facing a dire situation. The national water and sanitation agency ANA declared a water shortage on the Tapajos River on 23 September. Drier than usual weather has dropped the levels of Tapajos, especially in the stretch between Itaituba and Santarem cities, in Para state, where flows are below historic minimum levels. The depth of the Tapajos River at the Itaituba monitoring point, where the transfer point for the Miritituba waterway is located, was at 86cm on 11 October, from 87cm on 2 October and below the record low of 1.32m, according to SBG data. At the Santarem monitoring point, where the port of Santarem is located, the Tapajos River was at -6cm, a level considered dry. The level was 25cm on 2 October. The historic minimum at the location is -55cm below the port's reference point. A level below zero does not mean the river is dry, but a negative reading indicates very low conditions. Tocantins-Araguaia waterway The Tocantins-Araguaia waterway encompasses the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. It runs from the Barra do Garcas city, in Mato Grosso, into the Araguaia River, or from Peixes city, in Tocantins state, into the Tocantins River, to the port of Vila do Conde, in Para state. Soybeans, corn, fertilizers, fuels, mineral oils and derivative products are transported via the northern waterways. Vila do Conde port is expected to receive 152,800t of fertilizer in October, according to Unimar. Status: The SGB has two monitoring points on the Araguaia River. In the Nova Crixas city, in Goias state, the river was at 2.84m on 11 October, from 2.87m on 2 October. The river remains below the historical level of 3.10m. In Sao Felix do Araguaia city, in Mato Grosso state, the river was at 2.54m, from 2.55m in the prior week, a situation of extreme drought and close to the historical minimum level of 2.51m. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

USDA orders west African organic soy inspections

11/10/24

USDA orders west African organic soy inspections

St Louis, 11 October (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is warning organic soybean importers that product from west Africa may pose risks to consumers and is directing organic certifiers to increase inspections and testing. USDA's National Organics Program (NOP) on 27 September issued a directive to certifiers of organic soybeans and soybean meal from west Africa requiring increase oversight of the organic soybean supply chain over concerns about a lack of adequate controls in the region. Organic certifiers in west Africa are being required to increase on-site inspections and expand sample testing of organic soy products. The certifiers also by 28 October must provide NOP with descriptions of their oversight practices, as NOP evaluates whether to expand its own surveillance. Regulators took action in response to "the rapid growth of soybeans represented as organic in the region, security concerns in the region that can impede the ability for certifiers to conduct unannounced inspections, the prevalence of producer groups with thousands of members and associated issues with full traceability, feasible yields and adequate internal control systems, and known attempts to sell nonorganic soybeans from the region as organic", according to the directive obtained by Argus. The directive also prohibits certifiers from issuing time-based NOP import certificates within the region. Time-based certificates allow for multiple shipments of organic products to be certified for export over a period of time, in contrast to non-time-based certificates which are specific to each shipment. The move comes in the wake of a sharp increase in US imports of organic soybeans and soybean meal from west Africa over the past two years. Organic certification within west Africa is relatively concentrated. According to the Organic Integrity Database, Ecocert SAS certifies over half of all organic operations in the region. The next most common certifier in the countries is the Control Union Certifications, which certifies about 33pc of operations. US reliance on west African organic soy supplies has ballooned in recent years. Through September 2024, 42pc of US organic soybean meal imports and 11pc of organic whole soybean imports were sourced from west African countries, according to Argus organic import data . Two years ago, west African countries accounting for only 3.6pc of US organic soybean meal imports. Regarding what impact this directive could have on organic soy markets, Jennifer Tucker, the deputy administrator of the USDA NOP, said that "in the past, directives have led to both certifier and operation surrenders and some changes in exports as fraud was removed from the system". But "buyers who have invested in and continue to do effective due diligence and oversight on their supply chains should not be affected," she said. By Ryan Koory and Rachel Nelson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's GrainCorp workers may strike during harvest

11/10/24

Australia's GrainCorp workers may strike during harvest

Sydney, 11 October (Argus) — Union members working for Australian grain aggregator GrainCorp in New South Wales (NSW) state may strike in the coming weeks as part of a wage dispute that could disrupt the start of the winter crop harvest. Australia's Fair Work Commission (FWC) approved a ballot of workers represented by the Australia Workers' Union (AWU) on 9 October, with voting to close on 23 October. If members vote in favour of protected industrial action, legal strikes could take place. An AWU spokesperson confirmed at least 200 union members employed by GrainCorp would vote on proposed action including work stoppages and bans on loading and unloading grain onto trucks and trains. GrainCorp and AWU must engage in a compulsory conciliation conference on 18 October to try to reach an agreement on unresolved issues before any strikes can occur. "GrainCorp continues to negotiate in good faith with our employees and the AWU and has held 10 meetings with them in the last six months," a GrainCorp spokesperson said on 11 October. The firm said it was too early to assess the impact, if any, that industrial action would have on the harvest ahead of the conciliation and ballot outcome. But NSW Farmers Grains Committee chair on 11 October called on GrainCorp and AWU to come to an agreement before harvest, stressing the cost of delays during harvest. NSW is poised to have an exceptional winter harvest, thanks to favourable weather throughout the growing season. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares) projects winter crop production to increase by 50pc from 2023-24 to 16.9mn t in 2024-25, which would be the third-highest winter crop on record. GrainCorp handled 37.4mn t of grain in the fiscal year to 30 June 2023, which is greater than the combined winter crop production of Queensland, Victoria and NSW in July 2022-June 2023, according to Abares estimates. Grain Producers Australia did not respond immediately for comment. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s Sep inflation slows with energy prices

10/10/24

Mexico’s Sep inflation slows with energy prices

Mexico City, 10 October (Argus) — Lower energy prices supported an easing in Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) in September for a second consecutive month. The CPI slowed to an annual 4.58pc in September, down from 4.99pc in August, Mexico's statistics agency Inegi said on 9 October. This was lower than both Mexican bank Banorte's own 4.59pc estimate and its analysts' consensus estimate of 4.61pc. Energy inflation eased for a second month, dropping to 6.9pc from 7.9pc in August and 9.2pc in July, with LPG prices — the largest component — slowing to 14.7pc in September from 16.8pc in August and 25.6pc in July. Seasonal rains, now ending, have largely reversed the price spikes in farm goods caused by extreme drought earlier this year, with fruit and vegetable inflation slowing to 7.65pc in September from 12.6pc in August, making it the first single-digit rate since November 2023. "Despite the positive performance of agricultural items since August, lingering risks could turn them negative again," Banorte said in a note, emphasizing that above-normal rainfall will be needed in the coming months to avoid a return to drought and price spikes next year. For now, Mexican weather agency Conagua still estimates relatively heavy rains in October, but "more adverse" conditions for November and December, with no state forecast to exceed the upper range of historical rainfall. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, eased in September to 3.9pc from 4pc, moving within the central bank's 2pc to 4pc target range for the first time since February 2021. Inside core, said Banorte, packaged and manufactured goods continue to improve, standing at 2.9pc from 3pc in August. Services also moderated, adjusting to 5.1pc from 5.2pc. "A downward trend in the latter is needed to corroborate additional gains for the core," Banorte said. "This will still take some time, especially given that the margin for additional declines in goods may be running out." The Mexican bank added that within this context, it maintains its estimate for full-year 2024 core inflation to hold to 3.9pc. Though less weighted than core inflation, the bulk of September's easing in the headline was due to non-core inflation, including prices on more volatile items such as fuels and farm goods. Inegi reported non-core moving to 6.5pc in September from 8pc in August. Despite two months of better-than-expected price improvements, Banorte warned that "risks remain," with energy prices susceptible to gains amid "geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic stimulus in China." Still, there is "room to adjust gasoline subsidies" to cushion these effects, it added. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

02/10/24

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

Updates throughout with more detail on revisions. Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators advanced stricter limits on crop-based biofuels as revisions to a key North American low-carbon incentive program drew closer to a vote. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late yesterday added sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. Board decisions that could come as early as 8 November may reconfigure the flow of low-carbon fuels across North America. The state credits anchor a bouquet of incentives that have driven the rapid buildout of renewable diesel capacity and dairy biogas capture systems far beyond California's borders, and inspired similar, but separate, programs along the US west coast and in Canada. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day before slipping back by midday. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than enough to satisfy all new deficits generated in 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. Participants have generally supported tougher targets, with some fuel suppliers warning about potential price increases and credit generators urging CARB to take a still more aggressive approach. But proposals to limit credit generation to only 20pc of the volume of fuel a supplier made from canola, soybean and now sunflower has found little public support. Environmental opponents have argued that the CARB proposals fall short of what is necessary to add protections against cropland expansion and fuel competition with food supply. Agribusiness and some fuel producers have warned the concept, proposed in August, ran counter to the premise of a neutral, carbon-focused program and against staff's own view last spring. The proposal exceeded what CARB could do without beginning a new rulemaking, some argued. CARB yesterday proposed a grace period for facilities already using the feedstocks to continue generating credits while seeking alternatives. Facilities certified to use those feedstocks before changes are formally adopted could continue using those sources until 2028, compared to a 2026 cut off proposed in August. No facilities currently supplying California have certified sunflower feedstock, and it was not clear that any were planned. "We're not aware of any proposed pathway or lifecycle analysis for sunflower oil, so that addition is just baffling," said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Alliance America director of state regulatory affairs. "Clearly not based in science." The latest revisions include a change to how staff communicate a new, proposed automatic adjustment mechanism (AAM). The mechanism would automatically advance to tougher, future targets when credits exceed deficits by a certain amount. Supporters consider this a more responsive approach to market conditions than the years of rulemaking effort already underway. Opponents argue such a mechanism cedes important authority and responsibility from the board. Staff proposed quarterly, rather than annual, updates on whether conditions would trigger an adjustment, and to use conditions during the most recent four quarters, rather than by calendar year. Obligations and targets would continue to work on a calendar-year basis. CARB staff clarified that verifying electric vehicle charging credits would not require site visits to the thousands of charging stations eligible to participate in the program. Staff also clarified how long dairy or swine biogas harvesting projects could continue to generate credits if built this decade, with a proposed reduction in credit periods only applying to projects certified after the new rules were adopted. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. Public comment on yesterday's publication will continue to 16 October. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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