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US Fed cuts rate by half point, signals more to come

  • Spanish Market: Metals, Natural gas
  • 18/09/24

The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points today, the first rate cut since 2020, with officials signaling they expect to make another half point worth of cuts by the end of 2024.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.75-5pc from the prior range of 5.25-5.5pc, which was a two-decade high. The Fed had kept the target rate unchanged since July 2023 after hiking it for more than a year in the most aggressive increase campaign in four decades to quash inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022.

"The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2pc and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low."

The Fed board and policymakers, in their latest economic projections, expect the target rate range will end 2024 near a midpoint of 4.4pc compared with an end of year midpoint of 5.1pc projected in June, which implies further cuts amounting to 50 basis points by the end of 2024.


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04/10/24

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

Global bio-bunker demand to pick up, US left behind

New York, 4 October (Argus) — Tightening vessel carbon intensity indicator (CII) scores and looming 2025 FuelEU marine regulation are expected to raise biodiesel demand for bunkering, but non-competitive US prices should continue to weigh down on US bio-bunker demand. Houston B30, a blend of used cooking methyl ester (Ucome) and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), in September averaged at $821/t, a $45/t premium to B30 sold in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and a $55/t premium to B24 sold in the west Mediterranean hub of Gibraltar and Algeciras (see chart) . Houston B30 was also priced at $115/t and $61/t premium to B24 sold in Singapore and Guangzhou, China, respectively. The price premium would continue to incentivize ship owners with global, ocean-going fleets to pick Asia first for their biodiesel bunker purchases, followed by northwest Europe and western Mediterranean. US demand for biodiesel for bunkering would continue to stagnate unless the US passes a legislation allowing Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program be used by ocean-going vessels fueling with biodiesel in US ports. The legislation could level US' price playing field. Two bipartisan bills were put forward in support of renewable fuel for ocean-going vessels, one in the US Senate this year and one in the US House of Representatives last year, but they are currently dead in the water. Conventional marine fuels are priced cheaper than biodiesel and green varieties of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. But tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) and EU regulations are forcing the hand of ship operators to consider green fuels to avoid hefty penalties and having their vessels suspended from trading. Ship owners whose vessels are outfitted with LNG-burning engines, are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025, as fossil LNG is currently ship owners' cheapest low-carbon fuel option. But retrofitting a vessel to burn LNG could range from $5-$35mn, depending on the size of the vessel. Biodiesel, a plug-and-play fuel that does not require a vessel retrofit, is the second cheapest low-carbon fuel option after fossil LNG. IMO's CII regulation came into force in January 2023 and requires vessels over 5,000 gt to report their carbon intensity, which is then scored from A to E. The scoring levels are lowered yearly by about 2pc, so even a vessel with no change in CII could drop from C to D in one year. If a vessel receives a D score three years in a row or E score in the previous year, the vessel owner must submit a corrective actions plan. E scoring vessels could be prohibited from entering some ports' territorial waters, but this penalty is yet to be imposed on any E vessels. In 2023, the IMO reported that 40pc of the vessels scored A or B, 27pc scored C, 19pc scored D or E and 14pc were unresponsive. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. It imposes a penalty of €2,400/t ($2,629/t) of VLSFO equivalent energy for vessel fleets exceeding its GHG limits. By Stefka Wechsler Biodiesel blends* Houston less global ports $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep


04/10/24
04/10/24

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Houston, 4 October (Argus) — The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000. September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey. Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year. Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported. Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report. Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000. Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023. Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American


04/10/24
04/10/24

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American

London, 4 October (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel producers will continue to import and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to John Eastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainless and specialty steel raw materials. A region-wide scarcity of stainless steel scrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using the cheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with imports equating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to Red Door Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argus this week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after a five-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI as input feedstock. Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminar during LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in the near term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's tax measure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-term climate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase before full planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offset the CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas by buying emissions certificates. Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as they realise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to be limited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 August and was last at an average €1,175/t. The European stainless steel industry is facing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straight year in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacity amid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change to fundamentals until the second half of 2025. "The problem is not profitability, the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out of the market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market and prices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickel sales, which tells you how weak the market is." Eastwood believes the second half of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros and easing monetary policy will start to kick in. CBAM has come under intense criticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not include scope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, with many producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that is fast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressed on reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay. "There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refined nickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain. Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will pay this." Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the sole provider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickel prices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year. "The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story about nickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change." Eastwood noted freight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industry next year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe. "Freight prices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year," he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports or otherwise." By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dockworkers end US port strike


03/10/24
03/10/24

Dockworkers end US port strike

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — US dockworkers have ended a port strike that had shut container terminals from Maine to Texas, after their union late Thursday struck a tentative agreement on wages. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has agreed to extend its contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) until 15 January to provide time for negotiating the remaining outstanding issues, the ILA said in a statement. The USMX includes containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume," the ILA said. The strike, which started on 1 October, had forced containership operators to queue up outside US east coast ports. Major container shipping agencies such as Maersk had initiated surcharges for US east coast and Gulf coast-bound containers later in October. By Jack Kaskey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US light vehicle sales surged in September


03/10/24
03/10/24

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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