European gasoline exports rise in October

European gasoline exports rose slightly in October compared with September, with higher shipments to Nigeria offsetting lower demand from the US.

Around 4.13mn t of gasoline was exported from Europe last month, up by 1pc on September on a daily average basis but down by 18pc compared from October last year, according to Vortexa data. The month-on-month gain was driven by increased exports to west Africa, compensating for a drop in volumes bound for the US.

The US was still the largest outlet for European gasoline exports in October, accounting for almost 950,000t of the total. But that marks a 25pc drop on a daily average basis compared with September and a 3pc fall from October 2022.

Arbitrage economics for westbound transatlantic shipments were unworkable last month, according to traders, with second-month Rbob futures averaging an $8.61 discount to front-month Eurobob swaps, including the cost of freight and renewable volume obligations. The spread is a bellwether for transatlantic arbitrage viability.

Exports to Nigeria surged on the month, reaching 608,000t, nearly two-and-a-half times more than September when exports slumped to their lowest since May 2020. Traders report firmer interest in summer-grade gasoline with a Reid vapour pressure (RVP) rating of 60 kpa in recent weeks, with arbitrage economics for west African blends more workable than for US or winter European grades.

Exports to Nigeria were still 60pc lower than in October 2022, with demand at the pump falling sharply since Nigeria's gasoline subsidy was removed in May. Since then, buyers have had increasingly limited access to credit, which has made funding purchases trickier, according to traders.

Some 328,000t of European gasoline was shipped to Libya in October, up by 15pc on the month on a daily average basis and by 4.5pc on the year. Saudi Arabia emerged as the fourth-largest recipient, taking 223,000t last month, an unusually high amount. Gasoline flows from Europe to Saudi Arabia were just 297,000t in the first nine months of the year. Regional refinery maintenance, including work on Saudi Arabia's 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery, as well as maintenance in India, which also supplies gasoline to Mideast Gulf, prompted the sharp spike in imports from Europe last month.

Gasoline exports to Canada fell by 40pc on the month on a daily average basis and by 17pc on the year to 192,000t in October. The month-on-month decline was largely seasonal as Canada typically looks to Europe to source gasoline during the summer months when driving demand peaks.

By Jonah Sweeney