EIA raises US coal power forecast for 2024-25

: Coal, Coking coal, Electricity
24/07/09

Coal-fired generation in the US is expected to be higher this year and in 2025 compared with 2023 levels in response to elevated natural gas prices, government projections released today show.

Coal power will increase by 2.7pc from a year earlier to 688.5bn kWh in 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today. Coal generation in 2025 will then slip to 674.5bn kWh, which would still be slightly higher than 2023's 670.7bn kWh.

The coal generation outlooks for this year and next are both above what EIA projected in June. Today is also the first time this year that EIA said it expected 2024 coal power to top 2023 levels.

"After reviewing the responsiveness of fossil fuel generation to natural gas prices, we now expect more power generation from coal and less from natural gas than we did in our previous forecast, especially during the winter," EIA said.

The agency projected spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub to average $2.49/mmBtu this year, down from $2.54/mmBtu in 2023. But gas prices in the second half of 2024 will be higher than they were in both the first six months of this year and in the back half of 2023, and prices will continue to rise in 2025. The spot price at the Henry Hub will average $3.29/mmBtu in 2025, EIA projected.

Natural gas-fired generation is expected to inch up by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 1,719.4bn kWh in 2024 but then slide below 2023 levels to 1,695.3bn next year, as the higher prices suppress demand for gas.

EIA said overall US electricity generation was 5pc higher in the first half of 2024 than the same period last year as a result of higher-than-normal temperatures in June and rising demand from some businesses. The agency expects electric power dispatch in the second half of this year to be 2pc higher than in the same period of 2023, and for renewable power to have the greatest rate of growth during that time.

Solar power is forecast to be 121.4bn kWh in the second half of this year, which would be 42pc higher than a year earlier. Wind generation is expected to rise by 12bn kWh, or 6pc, during this time to 208.7bn kWh.

The greater solar and wind generation is at least partly because of more projects coming on line. EIA expects the US to have 127.3GW of solar generating capacity and 155.2GW of wind by the end of this year, compared with 90.2GW and 147.6GW, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Coal generating capacity is expected to continue to slip, to 174.3GW in by the end of this year from 177.1GW in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to EIA. Coal's portion of the nation's generating capacity mix will then drop more sharply in 2025 to 162GW as coal-fired plant retirements start to accelerate.

The higher outlook for coal generation this year led EIA to raise its expectations for electric power coal consumption by 3.8pc from the agency's June outlook, to 395.5mn short tons (358.8mn metric tonnes) in 2024. That also would be higher than the 387.2mn st consumed in 2023.

But US coal production is still expected to fall by 12pc this year to 509.7mn st this year.

US thermal coal exports are expected to rise to 53mn st this year and to 55mn st in 2025 from 48.5mn st in 2023. EIA forecast metallurgical coal exports will be about 49mn st in 2024 and 49.2mn st in 2025 compared with 51.3mn st last year.

By Anna Harmon

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25/04/28

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

Washington, 28 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has started to impede development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. Trump has attacked wind turbines and solar projects as part of a "Green New Scam" that should not be built, based on his preference for the fossil fuel-fired and nuclear power plants he says are more reliable and affordable. Trump selected a cabinet of like-minded individuals who oppose renewables and see little urgency to address climate change. He was elected to end the "nonsense" of building renewable resources that are heavily subsidised, make the grid less reliable and raise costs, energy secretary Chris Wright said in an interview on Earth Day. Interior secretary Doug Burgum on 16 April ordered Norwegian state-controlled Equinor to "immediately halt" construction of the 810MW Empire Wind project off New York. Trump had already ordered a freeze on future offshore wind leases , and suspending Empire Wind's permits is likely to spook investors even outside the renewables sphere. To reverse course on a fully permitted project is "bad policy" that "sends a chilling signal to all energy investment", American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet says. The US last week separately said it would impose anti-dumping duties on solar components imported from four southeast Asian countries that will range from 15pc to 3,400pc. Those duties — in effect from June to support US solar manufacturers — will be in addition to a 10pc across-the-board tariff the US imposed this month on most imports. Solar industry groups have said that steep import duties will make new installations unaffordable, stunting the industry's ability to grow. Trump has had less success in his push to axe support for renewables approved under Joe Biden. On 15 April, a federal judge ordered the administration to unfreeze billions of dollars for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 infrastructure law. The administration lacks "unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes", judge Mary McElroy wrote. In a separate ruling on 15 April, judge Tanya Chutkan prohibited the administration from suspending $14bn in grants distributed to nonprofits under the IRA for a greenhouse gas reduction programme. The administration is appealing both rulings. Targeting the windfall Trump could further undermine the growth of renewables by convincing Republicans in Congress to use an upcoming filibuster-proof budget package to repeal or narrow the IRA's tax credits for wind, solar and other clean energy projects. Critics of that law see the potential for $1 trillion in savings by repealing its tax credits, which could offset the costs of more than $5 trillion in planned tax cuts. But there appear to be enough votes in each chamber of Congress to spare at least some of the IRA's energy tax credits. In the Senate, where Republicans can only afford to lose three votes, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and three other Republicans signed a joint letter this month saying "wholesale repeal" of the tax credits would fuel uncertainty and undermine job creation. In the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a similarly slim majority, 21 Republicans voiced concerns earlier this year about repealing all of the tax credits. Renewables are on track to overtake natural gas as the largest source of US electricity by 2030 — assuming the tax credits and climate rules enacted under Biden remain intact — the EIA stated this month in its Annual Energy Outlook . The amount of power from renewables under the EIA's existing policy baseline by 2035 will increase by 135pc to 2.8bn MWh, while gas-fired power will decline by 14pc to 1.6bn MWh over the same time period. By Chris Knight Baseline US net power generation Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cement sales at India’s Dalmia fall on year in Jan-Mar

25/04/28

Cement sales at India’s Dalmia fall on year in Jan-Mar

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — Indian cement maker Dalmia Bharat reported a 2.8pc decline on the year in January-March sales, although sales increased by a sharp 28pc on the quarter because of an uptick in demand. Bombay Stock Exchange-listed Dalmia sold 8.6mn t of cement over January-March, down from 8.8mn t a year earlier but well above the 6.7mn t sold in October-December 2024. Sales rose by 2pc to 29.4mn t in the 2024-25 fiscal year ending 31 March. Cement demand was "relatively slow" in the first three quarters of the last fiscal year at 3-3.5pc growth, while the industry's full-year growth is estimated at 4-5pc, the company said. It expects cement demand to grow by 7-8pc in the current year. The year-on-year decline in sales in January-March was because of a higher base in the year-earlier period, when the company sold 0.6mn tthrough a tolling arrangement in January-March 2024, Dalmia told investors on 24 April. This arrangement was discontinued in July 2024. Power and fuel costs fell by 7.2pc from a year earlier to 945 rupees/t ($11.10/t) of cement in January-March. This was primarily because average fuel consumption costs fell by $19/t on the year to $95/t in the latest quarter. Cement plants use petroleum coke and thermal coal as fuel in cement kilns. The Argus -assessed delivered India price of 6.5pc coke averaged $98.38/t for October-December, down by almost 25pc from the average of $131.04/t a year earlier. Most of the US high-sulphur coke that Indian cement makers consumed in January-March would typically have been booked in the previous quarter, considering a voyage time of approximately six weeks. Revenue from sales fell by 5pc on the year to Rs40.91bn in January-March, a sharper decline compared with the 2.8pc drop in sales volume because of lower cement prices. The fiscal year's revenue also slipped by almost 5pc to Rs139.8bn. The company reported higher cement prices this quarter, and it is reasonably optimistic about the sustainability of recent hikes. It expects the rising industry consolidation in cement industry to eventually give producers a higher pricing. Dalmia's profits increased by 37pc on the year to Rs4.4bn over January-March, but the annual profit declined by 18pc to Rs7bn from the year earlier. Dalmia Bharat added approximately 5mn t/yr of cement capacity in 2024-25 to 49.4mn t/yr. It had earlier announced an aspiration to raise cement capacity to 75mn t/yr by 2027-28, but details have not yet been made public. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

25/04/28

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — Japan's coking coal imports extended a downtrend in March, reflecting the prolonged downturn in the steel sector, which has weighed on raw material demand. The country imported 2.57mn t of coking coal in March, down by 18pc on the year but up by 5pc from February, according to data from the country's finance ministry. Shipments dropped by 10pc to 8.15mn t in January-March 2025 from a year earlier. Top supplier Australia shipped 19pc less volume from a year earlier at 1.78mn t, and volumes in January-March fell by 18pc from 2024 to 5.59mn t. Arrivals from Canada fell to 192,903t in March, down by over 60pc compared with a year and month earlier, but January-March volumes rose by 11pc on the year to 1.22mn t. Metallurgical coke imports rose by around 30pc on the year and month to 78,729t in March, with volumes in January-March 28pc higher on the year at 255,804t. Crude steel production from basic oxygen furnaces (BOF) rose by 3pc on the year to 5.3mn t. But output could fall in coming months. Japanese steel producer JFE will suspend operations at one of its three BOF in the West Japan Works from around mid-May on the back of lower steel demand in domestic and export markets, the firm announced on 2 April. This is expected to lower annual crude steel output by around 15pc. Meanwhile, the mill will proceed to invest in an electric arc furnace (EAF) facility in western Okayama, which could begin commercial operations in April-June 2028. Other steelmakers such as Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel have also been making the shift from BOF to EAF. The Argus premium low-volatile hard coking coal price fob Australia averaged $174.84/t in March, down by 7pc from February. By Xiuqi Huang Japan's coal imports Origin Mar 25 Mar 24 y-o-y ± % Feb 25 m-o-m ± % Jan-Mar 2025 Jan-Mar 2024 y-o-y ± % Coking coal ('000t) Australia 1,781 2,206 -19 1,522 +17 5,589 6,780 -18 Canada 193 493 -61 554 -65 1,221 1,103 +11 US 297 215 +38 252 +18 743 848 -12 Indonesia 298 230 +29 85 +249 495 329 +50 Colombia 0 0 n/a 25 -100 25 0 n/a Others 0 0 n/a 0 n/a 80 48 +67 Total 2,569 3,144 -18 2,438 +5 8,153 9,109 -10 Met coke (t) China 74,633 57,426 +30 56,445 +32 222,202 188,235 +18 Others 4,096 4,069 +1 3,713 +10 33,602 11,323 +197 Total 78,729 61,495 +28 60,158 +31 255,804 199,558 +28 Source: Japan Finance Ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Erex starts up biomass power plant in Vietnam

25/04/28

Japan’s Erex starts up biomass power plant in Vietnam

Tokyo, 28 April (Argus) — Japan's renewable energy developer Erex has started commercial operations at the 20MW Hau Giang biomass-fired power plant in Vietnam, the company announced on 25 April. The power plant in southern Vietnam's Hau Giang province is Erex's first biomass-fired generation project in the country and burns around 130,000 t/yr of rice husks. The electricity generated by the plant is sold under Vietnam's feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme. Erex aims to build up to 18 biomass-fired power plants in Vietnam following Hau Giang, and five plants in Cambodia. The company has started building two 50MW plants in northern Vietnam. These plants are expected to come on line by mid-2027 and burn wood residues. Erex also plans wood pellet production projects in southeast Asia, with up to 20 factories in Vietnam and several ones in Cambodia. The company's first wood pellet factory in Vietnam with a capacity of 150,000 t/yr has already started commercial production in late March. Erex's profits from projects in Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to grow rapidly and will account for more than half of its whole profits around 2030, according to the company. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

25/04/25

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

Transition aligning with energy security and more Chinese climate leadership may reinforce co-operation despite the US withdrawal, writes Georgia Gratton London, 25 April (Argus) — The UN, IEA and countries including the UK and Brazil — which hosts this year's UN Cop 30 climate summit — stepped up efforts this week to demonstrate common ground and build unity on climate action and the energy transition. Organisations and countries are looking to capitalise on areas of commonality in order to preserve climate action, as the US administration repeatedly pushes back on measures to tackle climate change and moves to curb the energy transition. A virtual meeting convened this week by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew 17 world leaders to commit to keeping climate action a key priority. "Leaders need reassurance that they're not acting alone," a senior UN official says. "Collaboration and multilateralism still matter," a senior Brazilian official says. Cop 30, which will take place in November in the Amazonian city of Belem, will "have a different dynamic", the official adds. "We want to prove that multilateralism is not only about negotiating documents… but about making them real." China's president, Xi Jinping, participated in this week's high-level meeting, the UN confirmed. While the US — the world's second-highest emitter — has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, China is continuing to step forward on climate action. It remains the highest-emitting country by some way, but this week reiterated a commitment to a new climate plan for the period to 2035, covering "all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", Guterres said. The EU this week noted China's co-operation at Cop 29 — where it was widely viewed as projecting leadership on climate — setting the scene for new climate alliances. While the US government pushes back on clean energy and climate action, support for the energy transition remains strong at sub-national level, from many US state governors, and from the private sector . A poll from three NGOs, including the UK's E3G, this week found that of nearly 1,500 business executives — including in the US — 97pc supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The majority of the world has held firm on climate commitments. Heads of state and government of jurisdictions including the EU, several G20 economies and developing nations committed to submitting "ambitious and robust [climate] plans", Guterres said after the meeting. Renewable security Organisations and countries have been careful to underline that different national circumstances will mean that jurisdictions take different approaches to tackling climate change. Although this is a key tenet of the Paris agreement, it also remains a bone of contention in multilateral talks. But the co-hosts of this week's energy security summit, the UK government and energy watchdog the IEA, put the issue front and centre. "Different pathways for different nations should be respected," UK energy minister Ed Miliband told the summit. The almost 60 governments that the UK and IEA hosted will have "different approaches to energy security based on their nation's circumstances and policies", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's determination to double down on its energy transition, but also extended a nod to the US for its LNG supply as the bloc pivoted away from imports of Russian gas. But many note that achieving energy security is well aligned with a transition to renewable energy. The UK's path "is a hard-headed approach to the role of low carbon power as the route to energy security", Miliband said, while the cost of renewable power is now the cheapest option for the majority of the world. "The pathway out of climate hell is paved by renewables," Guterres said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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