LPG World editorial: Fragile stability

Subtle shifts in power following months of elections around the world could provide opportunities for the LPG industry

The energy policy ramifications of several significant governmental elections that have taken place over the past few months are starting to come into focus. For the LPG market, all presently point to more of the same, while the climate and energy transition objectives that will shape the sector's future have so far escaped derailment from far-right forces in all but the US' yet-to-be-held presidential race.

The recent campaigns in India and Mexico, two major LPG markets, ended in the unsurprising re-election of their two governing parties. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi secured a third term in June after a campaign that promised competitive LPG pricing and a recommitment to the expansion of the market to less affluent areas that still lack access to clean cooking. In the same month, Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum won her race to succeed President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as the left-wing Morena party's incumbent. His government has pursued nationalist energy policies that have caused friction with private-sector LPG operators. This is unlikely to deviate, with some concerned that energy reforms could even be repealed. Maintaining LPG price controls and tackling theft and black-market practices should remain priorities regardless when she takes over in October.

European Parliament elections, also held in June, saw significant gains for far-right and right-wing groups, seen as a backlash to green policies and rising costs. But the ruling centre-right EPP group ultimately won that race, leaving Ursula von der Leyen on track for a second term as European Commission president. This should keep the EU's bold climate and energy objectives under the Green Deal on track, although a softening, more pragmatic approach could emerge following a broader parliamentary shift of power from the centre left to the centre right, delegates at last month's Liquid Gas Europe Congress in Lyon heard — something that could benefit the LPG industry.

France's snap election at the turn of this month, following a surprise surge in French votes for the far right in the European poll, looked at one stage to be ending in victory for the far-right National Rally party. But a coalition of left-wing parties unexpectedly secured enough votes to beat the National Rally into third position, while falling short of securing a majority, ending in a hung parliament. Outgoing president Emmanuel Macron has urged the New Popular Front coalition to ditch the far-left Unbowed party and join his centrist group, which came second, to ensure a majority. What government emerges is uncertain, but for now the country's energy transition and climate policies are secure and legislative stability is likely.

The UK had no problem securing a majority, as the incoming centre-left Labour party ousted the centre-right Conservatives in a landslide defeat this month. A huge parliamentary majority will give prime minister Keir Starmer's government free rein to pursue its energy and climate goals, yet these bear a striking resemblance to Boris Johnson's during his premiership in 2019-22. The forming of a new state-owned energy company could be boon or bane for LPG. But the UK LPG sector has wasted no time wooing Labour as it advocates for the protection of gas boilers in rural areas and more support to produce renewable alternatives.

American non-fiction

The US is conversely heading for another U-turn on its energy and climate policy trajectory as Donald Trump inches nearer to a return to office in a campaign that almost feels unreal. Should he succeed, he is expected to once again pull out of the Paris climate deal and reinstitute a favourable regime for licensing oil and gas wells and LNG projects — a possible boon for LPG supplies. Trump's seeming obsession with economic decoupling from China is also likely to disrupt global trade. Yet Chinese petrochemical firms seem unfazed, as they invest in ethane-fed capacity and ships to import more US supply.