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Weather sparks uncertainty for Vietnam’s bitumen demand

  • : Oil products
  • 24/07/19

Expectations of Vietnam's bitumen consumption in July-August are mixed, given an easing in the monsoon season in some regions but an upcoming typhoon season in other parts.

The mixed expectations will likely keep importers uncertain about future seaborne purchases. Consumption in Vietnam has been lower than normal in the last quarter because of unfavourable weather, political uncertainties, a lack of new paving projects and delays in disbursement of project funds, according to market participants. The lower consumption kept inventories higher and weighed on demand for spot seaborne volumes, with many importers only focused on taking delivery of their term contract shipments.

Some importers in Vietnam are cautious and did not report consumption rising noticeably as weather in the key consuming south and central regions continues to be wet and not suitable for road paving, while the country is also set to experience typhoons next month.

Consumption will stay low until September because the typhoon season starts next month, and the first region to get hit is the north before moving towards the south, a key importer told Argus.

It is raining in the south and central regions, according to the importer. "The north is alright now but there is no good pick up [in consumption]," the importer said, adding that imported cargo inventories in the region are still notably higher.

This is in contrast to expectations from other Vietnamese importers and some Asian traders, which said that consumption and demand for seaborne bitumen are expected to be higher in July and August as compared to previous months this year, given favourable weather in north Vietnam and more enquiries for Singapore cargoes, to restock in August.

Consumption in the south and central regions are stable-to-weak, but overall demand in July and August are set to pick up as some new road projects are in the pipeline, a market participant said.

Inventories are falling in some parts of the region and there is a need to replenish stocks now, while the domestic selling price is also expected to increase, participants said.

"Demand in Haiphong and north Vietnam is good, and we are able to sell more than last month," another importer told Argus. "If the weather continues to be good, then demand will improve further in the coming weeks and that can increase import appetite."

Vietnam is a net importer and typically secures most of its seaborne volumes from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and China. Vietnam imported 1.04mn t of bitumen in 2023, up by 20pc from 866,000t imported in 2022, according to GTT data. Singapore cargoes accounted for about 32pc of Vietnam's total imports last year, while Thailand, Taiwan, and China together accounted for about 35pc of the total imports, the data showed. This compared to a 33pc and 40pc share, respectively, in 2022.

Middle East penetration

Some importers are worried that domestic prices are unlikely to rise in the near term, because of increased availability of relatively cheaper Middle East-origin cargoes in the region. They noted that this would cut domestic appetite for Asian cargoes and would in turn weigh on imports.

Vietnam imported about 252,000t of bitumen from the Middle East in 2023, accounting for about 24pc of the total imports, show GTT data. This compared to 135,000t imported in 2022, which accounted for about 16pc of the total imports.

Imports from the Middle East totalled 156,000t over January-May, nearly tripling from 55,000t imported during the same period last year. The region's imports from Singapore during the five-month period this year totalled 135,000t, down from 150,000t a year earlier.

Imports from the Middle East increased as the inter-regional price arbitrage with Singapore was wide open. The Argus assessed ABX 1 fob Singapore prices averaged $421.50/t for the week of 12 July, while fob Iran bulk prices averaged $294.50/t for that week.

Vietnam importers noted that Middle East-origin bulk cargoes were priced at low-$400s/t on a cfr basis, which was still lower than prevailing fob Singapore levels during the period.


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25/02/17

German election impacts on energy and mobility sectors

German election impacts on energy and mobility sectors

Hamburg, 17 February (Argus) — Germany heads to the polls on 23 February, with its political parties divided over how to revive the country's struggling economy and shape climate policy in the face of continued concern over high energy costs. How the next government's policies are shaped could significantly impact regional energy markets and Germany's role as a key player in the European economy over the next four years. But most parties appear in agreement over maintaining the outgoing government's stance on Russian gas. Opinion polls suggest that support for the conservative CDU/CSU party has cooled in recent months, but it is still expected to be tasked with forming the next government. It is all but impossible for one party to win an absolute majority in the German parliament, so parties typically have to form a coalition. Support for the far-right AfD has grown in recent months, but the party still trails by some distance in second place. The CDU/CSU says it will not form a coalition with the AfD, so barring a dramatic surge in support for the latter in the final days of campaigning, a CDU-led coalition — possibly including the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens — is likely to be in charge by the end of the month. The AfD's stance on energy and climate change is largely at odds with most other parties, but the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens have some common ground. They all acknowledge the Paris climate agreement and EU Green Deal and seek to adhere to emissions reduction mandates, and they all plan to extend the scope of the EU emissions trading system (ETS). The three parties' manifestos chime on a need to reduce energy prices — which are widely seen as a key factor in the downturn in German industrial output — while transitioning to cleaner forms of transport and prioritising climate protection. But the parties diverge on how best to achieve these goals. Many energy-intensive industries in Germany have struggled with high gas prices since Russia embarked on its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The three parties all say they will bring down energy prices by adjusting taxes and subsidies, and increasing power generation. The parties aim to cut network fees and electricity taxes as much as possible within the EU, and the SPD and Greens plan to encourage the European Commission to compensate energy-intensive industries for high power prices. The three all agree that further expanding renewable energy is the best way to reduce energy prices but, unlike the SPD and Greens, the CDU/CSU is unwilling to close coal-fired power plants until they are replaced, and it wants to assess whether it is technically and financially feasible to reactivate mothballed nuclear power plants. The AfD wants to expand coal-fired and nuclear generation and halt the expansion of solar and wind. Gas goals The CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens all support replacing fossil gas with hydrogen in power generation and manufacturing in the near future. How soon that can happen is up in the air. Industrial groups have cited hydrogen's high costs and constantly changing legal framework as barriers to its expansion, calling for the simplification of national and EU hydrogen legislation, the continuation of subsidies for domestic production, and more consumer incentives to substitute natural gas. But the CDU/CSU also wants to reverse the gas boiler ban introduced by the outgoing government, which mandated that new buildings install heating systems using at least 65pc renewable energy from January 2024. Instead, it proposes subsidising low-emission heating solutions — regardless of the technology on which they are based. If implemented, this could check the decline in residential gas demand, although gas consumption is likely to become less attractive after the heating and road sectors are included in the EU ETS from 2027, pushing gas costs up. The CDU/CSU has made it clear that it intends to continue adhering to the Paris and EU climate agreements, but says this is conditional on the "competitiveness of the German economy" and "social load limits". The AfD not only seeks to end putting a price on CO2 emissions altogether, it also wants to undo the EU emission reduction mandates as a whole. Crucially, none of the potential coalition partners plans to reverse course on Russian gas — unlike the AfD, which is calling for the lifting of all sanctions on Russia, including those on gas and oil imports into the EU. The AfD also intends to reopen the undamaged pipe B of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to restart flows of Russian gas to Europe, and repair and reopen the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipes that were damaged in September 2022. Vorsprung durch technik? On the question of the future of mobility in Germany, there is significant disagreement between the parties that might find themselves in a coalition government. While the SPD and Green party believe that e-mobility will be most relevant and want to maintain the ban on registering internal combustion engine (Ice) cars from 2035, the CDU and AfD advocate for "technology openness" and want to reverse these agreements. The SPD says that it wants Germany to remain a leader in car manufacturing, but with its focus on electric vehicles (EVs). In order to encourage consumers to buy EVs that are "made in Germany", it proposes tax cuts for domestically manufactured units. This might be a lesson learned from unintended consequences of the general subsidy for EV purchases that was phased out at the end of 2023 — this was as beneficial for foreign EV manufacturers as domestic ones. The Green party supports the same tax cuts, provided the car is mostly manufactured within Europe. The SPD and Green party also believe that eFuels should primarily be used in aviation or shipping, rather than on the road. They aim to establish a climate-neutral European aviation sector through rules to prevent ‘carbon leakage', with the Greens even aiming to make domestic flights unnecessary. The Conservatives and the AfD take a completely different approach — they believe that the market should decide which mode of mobility will prevail. Based on this belief, their main goal is to reverse the EU policy of banning new Ice car registrations from 2035. The CDU and AfD instead both aim to make Ice cars — probably running on eFuels — a financially competitive alternative to EVs. They do not believe it is the government's responsibility to influence markets in one way or another. For the AfD, this extends to not using public funds to finance vehicle charging infrastructure. The two parties also agree that EU fleet emission limits, or at least associated penalties, should be abolished to avoid subjecting the German car manufacturing industry to additional pressure. The CDU's lead in the polls — and the performance of the AfD — reflects the priorities of Germany's voters, which are focused most heavily on immigration and the state of the economy, with energy and climate policies much further down the list. The CDU leads approval ratings on expected handling of economic issues. So the party's view on how far Germany's shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy dovetails with reviving economic competitiveness could play a role in dictating the pace of the energy transition in Europe's largest economy in the years ahead. By Johannes Guhlke German power generation mix GW Change in gas demand by sector, y-o-y GWh/d German gas demand by year Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria


25/02/17
25/02/17

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria

Munich, 17 February (Argus) — The EU will meet on 24 February to discuss lifting sanctions on Syria, EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said on Sunday. But internal European politics and concerns raised by Greece and Cyprus over Turkey's growing influence in the region could slow the process. Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Kallas said the prospect of lifting sanctions on Syria "is looking promising". The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to meet on 24 February to discuss Syria and other issues affecting the Middle East. France on 14 February convened an international conference on Syria in Paris, bringing together representatives from G7 nations, the EU, the UN, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The parties issued a final statement calling for support of Syria's political transition, but the US did not join that statement. US sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus that the issues raised in the statement are things Washington has not decided on, since US president Donald Trump's administration is still formulating its policy regarding Syria. Another source with knowledge of ongoing European talks on Syria said Greece and Cyprus are more reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria. Any EU action will have to be agreed upon by all of the bloc's members. Both countries are leery of ties between Turkey and the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant faction in the new Syrian government. Greece and Cyprus are worried about an oversized Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December. Sanctions remain one of the biggest obstacles to Syria's recovery. Damascus has been struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders largely because of those sanctions. Shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there over concerns tankers being sanctioned or stranded. Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which may have narrowed the pool for bidding. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU may trigger clause to boost defense spending


25/02/15
25/02/15

EU may trigger clause to boost defense spending

Munich, 15 February (Argus) — European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen wants to trigger an emergency clause that would allow member EU countries to significantly increase their spending on defense. She also warned that "unjust" tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Von der Leyen said she "will propose to activate the escape clause for defense investments". Such a move would "allow member states to substantially increase their defense expenditure", she said. Von der Leyen's proposal would exempt defense from EU limits on government spending. Highly indebted EU members such as Italy and Greece have voiced support for the move, arguing that activating the escape clause would enable them to increase defense spending while avoiding other budget cuts. Fiscally conservative EU countries, including Germany, could push back against the idea. Von der Leyen's proposal comes at a sensitive time for the EU, with US president Donald Trump pressuring Europe to finance more of its own defense. Trump wants EU members of Nato to more than double military expenditure to protect themselves from potential aggression rather than leaning on Washington's support. Trump is also pushing to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. "Let there be no room for any doubt. I believe when it comes to European security, Europe has to do more. Europe must bring more to the table," Von der Leyen said, adding that the EU needs to increase its military spending from just below 2pc of GDP to above 3pc. The increase "will mean hundreds of billions of euros of more investment every year", she said. Tariffs will be answered Von der Leyen also reemphasized the EU's position on the recent US tariff decision, noting that tariffs act like a tax and drive inflation. "But as I've already made clear, unjustified tariffs on the European Union will not go unanswered," she said. "And let me speak plainly, we are one of the world's largest markets. We will use our tools to safeguard our economic security and interests, and we will protect our workers, our businesses and consumers at every turn," she added. Trump on 11 February imposed a 25pc tariff on all US imports of steel and aluminum effective on 12 March, although he said he would consider making an exemption for imports from Australia. US 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could result in a 3.7mn t/yr decrease in European steel exports, as the US is the second-largest export market for the bloc, European steel association Eurofer said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lack of tariff details worry US energy markets


25/02/14
25/02/14

Lack of tariff details worry US energy markets

Washington, 14 February (Argus) — Uncertainty over potential tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico is already roiling North American energy trade, as trading desks struggle to understand how tariffs would be assessed and some buyers are unwilling to commit to taking March cargoes without more details. US president Donald Trump's planned 10pc tariff on energy commodity imports from Canada and a 25pc import tax on Mexican energy was originally set for 4 February but he postponed implementation until 4 March. The three governments are negotiating to avert a full-blown trade war, and many market participants are hoping that Trump would again delay their implementation after winning some concessions, as he did earlier this month. But even without tariffs in place, vast segments of the energy industry — oil and gas producers, refiners, pipeline operators, traders — are bracing for them. Energy trade across North America has been tariff-free for decades. Trump during his first term terminated the 1994 North America Free Trade Agreement, but replaced it with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in 2020 that kept the energy trade terms unchanged. The sudden imposition of tariffs after decades of free trade could create legal uncertainty in contractual obligations related to the payment of tariffs and reporting requirements, law firm Vinson & Elkins partner Jason Fleischer told Argus . "It's been a long time since oil and gas pipelines have really had to deal with anything quite like this." At least one large Canadian refiner attempted to pass along the tariff to gasoline cargo buyers in the US ahead of the original 4 February start date, leading a few buyers to threaten to pull out of their contracts, market sources told Argus . Complicating the matter is the approach taken by the Trump administration to impose import taxes differs greatly from current trade terms. The regular US customs duties on crude, for example, are currently set in volumetric terms, at 5.25¢/bl and 10.5¢/bl depending on crude quality. In practice, nearly every source of US crude imports is exempt from tariffs at present. But the import tax set out in Trump's executive orders is to be imposed on the value of the commodity — without specifying how that will be calculated and at what specific point during the transportation process. Likewise, guidance on the new tariffs from the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), given just before the original 4 February deadline, did not address the specific issues relating to the energy commodities. CBP and the Treasury Department will have to issue regulations spelling out specific details on how tariffs are to be assessed and collected, Vinson & Elkins partner Jeff Jakubiak said. "The advice we're giving to companies is to collect information and get ready to provide it to the government at some point in the future," Jakubiak said. If tariffs go into effect, "there is likely to be a combination of reporting obligations by the transporter as well as the owner of the commodity. And in both cases, my advice is, figure out how you can accurately count and assign volumes that are moving across the border and figure out how you would price those." Market effects also uncertain The uncertainty over the timing and details of implementation of tariffs have left the affected market participants having to guess who will carry the burden of new taxes. The discount for Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude at Hardisty, Alberta, to the CMA Nymex WTI contract widened on the eve of the initial 4 February deadline of tariffs, suggesting that market participants expected Canadian producers to bear the brunt of tariffs. But over time, that burden likely will shift depending on individual market power of buyers and sellers. This could hit refiners in the US midcontinent that currently rely on WCS and have few alternatives to taking Canadian crude. They could, in turn, pass on the additional costs to consumers at the pump. US independent refiner PBF Energy said this week that tariffs would likely cut US midcon refinery runs , even if those refiners could find alternatives to Canadian crudes. Most Mexico-sourced crude markets are seaborne, giving producers in that country an alternative to US markets. "For this scenario, we anticipate [US Gulf coast] refiners will reduce consumption to the lower limit of their contractual obligations but will continue to purchase Mexican crude and pay the tariff via reduced refining margins," investment bank Macquarie said in a recent note to clients. Canadian producers also expressed concern about the uncertain impact of tariffs on crude volumes trans-shipped through the US, either for exports to third country destinations from Gulf coast ports or transported on US pipelines to destinations in eastern Canada. Without guidance from the US customs authorities, it is not clear if such flows would be subject to new US tariffs. Integrated oil sands producer Suncor's refineries on the Canadian east coast rely on crude flows from Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 or 500,000 b/d Line 78 that cross into the US in Michigan before crossing back into Canada. "I would say that I don't know that anyone on the planet knows exactly what's going to happen on tariffs," chief executive Rich Kruger said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Biomethanol-methanol diff widens, UK demand ticks up


25/02/14
25/02/14

Biomethanol-methanol diff widens, UK demand ticks up

London, 14 February (Argus) — The spread between biomethanol and conventional methanol is the highest in more than nine months, at $734/t. This is partly driven by falling European methanol prices, with the methanol fob Rotterdam barge quote hitting $348.97/t on 12 February, the lowest since 7 August. Increased imports from the US, and the restart of a 900,000 t/yr capacity European plant have put downward pressure on prices. Biomethanol values ticked higher in recent sessions, tracking gains in the wider biofuels complex after record low values for renewable fuel tickets — tradeable credits generated primarily by the sale of biofuel-blended fuels — in major European demand centres in 2024. European demand for biofuels in 2025 could be supported by a combination of higher mandates for the use of renewables in transport, and by changes to regulations on the carryover of renewable fuels tickets in Germany and in the Netherlands . UK biomethanol prices and demand rise In the UK, the Argus cif biomethanol price has averaged $1,110/t so far in February, a $22/t increase from January and a $60/t rise from the September 2024 average, when prices hit a record low. The price averaged around $1,094/t in February last year. Prices have been in part supported by stronger renewable fuel ticket prices (RTFCs) in the UK recently, according to market participants. UK 2025 non-crop RTFCs averaged 25.45p in the first quarter of 2025 so far, an increase of 1.88p when compared with the previous quarter. Demand picked up in the UK and the wider European market, including from voluntary sectors, at the beginning of the year, participants said. Biomethanol is used as a gasoline blending component in the UK. Consumption in the country in 2024 rose by 45pc on the year but was lower by 7.9pc than in 2022 at 58mn litres, according to the third provisional release of the 2024 Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation statistics. The Argus biomethanol fob Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) netback quote was $1,083/t on 12 February. FuelEU fuels demand The January rollout of the FuelEU Maritime regulations could increase demand for biomethanol in shipping. Ship operators traveling in to, out of and within EU territorial waters must reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis by 2pc. The reduction rises to 6pc from 2030 and gradually reaches 80pc by 2050. Shipping companies can choose from a range of alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions. Only dedicated ships can run on methanol alone, but many companies, including Maersk , have ordered dual-fuel vessels that can run on methanol and traditional bunker fuels, along with biofuel blends like B24 — a mix of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) biodiesel. International offtake agreements for renewable methanol are also on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers including Equinor , Proman and OCI Global , and has an agreement with Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind for 500,000 t/yr from 2024. Biomethanol and e-methanol are likely to be the most competitive and scalable pathways to decarbonisation this decade, Maersk said . While relatively small, Maersk's 'green marine' fuel consumption, which includes biomethanol, increased by 38pc in 2024 to 3,034 GWh. Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said it will buy biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting from 2024. Biomethanol bunker sales in the port of Rotterdam dropped by more than half in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the third quarter, to 930t, but sales were 86pc higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to Port of Rotterdam data . UDB risk to biomethanol imports The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels from the Union Database for Biofuels, if relying on natural gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, has been slowing some negotiations for 2025 biomethanol imports — particularly from the US — according to market participants. Industry bodies have expressed concerns about implementation of the database, particularly that it will impede the bloc's biomethane development. Burdensome fees, overly strict deadlines, risk of double counting, and a significantly increased number of participants required to enter data will slow market growth, said the European Compost Network and the European Waste Management Association. They recommend mandatory use of the UDB be postponed until 1 January 2026 "at the earliest". By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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