The estimated 1.7 Tcf of natural gas in Bolivia's Mayaya Centro-X1 field would expand the country's exporting capacity in 4-5 years but not much beyond that, according to market participants.
The discovery — the largest find in Bolivia since 2005 and the first in the north of the country — was well-received in Bolivia and in neighboring countries. But some are skeptical about whether it actually holds 1.7 Tcf.
"The government may be jumping to conclusions given the elements available so far," a hydrocarbons market consultant told Argus.
Prior to the discovery, Bolivia was expected to cease exporting gas in 2030. By then, considering proved reserves, production will only be enough to supply domestic demand.
Additionally, there are some logistics concerns, as the region around the Mayaya Centro-X1 field has no infrastructure for further exploration or pipeline transport systems. The mayor of the Bolivian capital La Paz, Iva Arias, said a hydrocarbons field would take 2-5 years to produce and start yielding royalties for the city.
But if the reserves are indeed proven, the discovery would change Bolivia's natural gas reality, as its reserves dropped by around 70pc in the last decade.
The expectations surrounding the find are added to the increasingly public animosity between President Luis Arce and former-president Evo Morales, his former boss. Both are claiming credit for the discovery and will use it to promote their 2025 presidential runs.
Bolivia is still the largest exporters of natural gas to Brazil. State-controlled Petrobras and Bolivia's state-owned YPFB are partners in four Bolivian fields.
Only four days prior to Mayaya Centro-X1 announcement, newly-appointed Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard visited Bolivia with Brazilan President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and announced plans to invest $40mn to drill an exploratory well in San Telmo Norte in 2025. Brazilian company Flxus also plans to invest in Bolivian gas.
