US Fed holds rate, signals possible September cut
The US Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high today while signaling a September rate cut "could be on the table" if inflation continues on its easing trajectory.
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5pc. The Fed has held rates unchanged since July 2023 after hiking them by 5.25 percentage points from March 2022 in the steepest course of hikes in four decades.
"We're getting closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to begin to dial back restriction," Fed chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "If we get the data that we hope we get, a reduction in the policy rate could be on the table at the September meeting."
The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected.
Following today's meeting, the FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, projected an 81.6pc probability of a quarter point cut at the September FOMC meeting and an 18.2pc chance of a half point cut, compared with 86.3pc chance of a quarter point cut and a 13.2pc probability of a half point cut a day earlier.
The Fed has been battling to rein in inflation, which saw the consumer price index surge to a four-decade high of 9.1pc in June 2022 because of supply chain disruptions caused by the global economic reopening following the Covid-19 pandemic.The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to an annual 2.5pc in June, close to the Fed's long range target of 2pc. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1pc in June from 3.5pc in July last year.
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Greece's Desfa to front-load gas grid expansion plans
Greece's Desfa to front-load gas grid expansion plans
London, 10 September (Argus) — Greek transmission system operator Desfa plans to complete nearly all the gas projects in its updated 10-year development plan (TYDP) within the next three years. Desfa's projected spend on all projects comes to over €1.37bn, of which €1.34bn would be used within the next three years. The most important of these projects are presented below, split by category. Interconnectors Desfa expects the 1.5bn m³/yr Greece-North Macedonia interconnector to start commercial operations in January 2026, a delay of roughly a year from the timeline it gave in October 2023. The pipeline will run from Nea Messimvria — where Azeri gas enters the Greek grid — to Gevgelija and will cost around €92mn. LNG terminals The connection of the Dioriga LNG terminal will start commercial operations in December 2026, according to the latest TYDP, 1½ years later than previously envisaged. Desfa expects to reach a final investment decision (FID) on a metering and regulating station to connect the planned Dioriga LNG terminal in February 2025. Developer Motor Oil Hellas recently told Argus it plans to make FID on the project by the end of this year . The project will cost Desfa around €21mn and will be financed through connection fees. The new entry point will have a capacity of around 11.8mn m³/d, or 4.3bn m³/yr. Desfa expects a new small-scale jetty already under construction at Revithoussa to start commercial operations in December 2025. The €38mn project will enable ships with capacities of 1,000-30,000m³ of LNG to unload and reload. And Desfa has also taken FID on a compressor station for Revithoussa, which will allow for boil-off gas to be sent into the transmission system rather than flared. Commercial operations are envisioned to start in May 2025. No mention of grid connections for the Argo floating storage and regasification unit or Thessaloniki LNG projects were included in the TYDP, throwing their future into further doubt following recent delays . Power plants Desfa included multiple pipeline connections to gas-fired power plants in the TYDP. The operator expects the 877MW Thermoilektriki Komotinis plant's connection to the grid to start commercial operations in October. It will have a capacity of around 3.4mn m³/d, or 1.24bn m³/yr. The project's operators expect test operations to begin this autumn . Another project will connect Elpedison's planned 826MW plant near Thessaloniki, with a capacity of around 1.14bn m³/yr. Desfa envisions commercial operations beginning in November 2025. A third project would connect to an 840MW plant at Alexandroupolis and start commercial operations in May 2027. Lastly, Desfa expects a project connecting the 873MW Larisa Thermoelectriki plant to start commercial operations in mid-2027. Pipeline capacities for these two projects were not disclosed, but would likely be similar to the first two. Compressor stations Several compressor station plans have been delayed, notably at Komotini and Ampelia. The two expansion phases at Komotini have been pushed back by six months to March and June 2025, respectively, because of delays during the permitting process. The project will increase the system's "technical adequacy", as well as its capacity, according to Desfa. And Desfa expects the compressor station at Ampelia, a crucial part of enabling higher north to south transmission, to start commercial operations only in June 2025. The nine-month delay is because of "extreme weather events" in the area in 2023. And a booster compressor for the Trans-Adriatic pipeline at Nea Messimvria — which will enable fully bidirectional flows — is scheduled to start commercial operations in December 2025. Permitting delays have pushed back the start date by more than a year. Domestic grid Several large projects are also in the works to expand the domestic grid. Desfa plans a 145km pipeline to connect the city of Patras and its industrial area to the grid, expecting FID in June 2025 and the start of commercial operations in March 2027. The pipeline will have a capacity of around 240mn m³/yr, but with the possibility to be doubled if demand is sufficient. Desfa is also planning a 157km pipeline to connect west Macedonia and a metering station at Kardia-Kozani, with a planned capacity of around 440mn m³/yr. This project will help to enable gas supply to district heating installations in the area, Desfa said. Desfa has taken FID and expects commercial operations to start in June 2025. And Desfa's most expensive plan, at €311mn, will duplicate the 215km main transmission line from Karperi to Komotini. This will increase capacity from north to south and aims to eliminate bottlenecks for the provision of firm capacity from new entry and exit points in the northern part of the system, as well as the provision of firm access to the VTP. This will increase liquidity and provide "equitable access to all northern exit points, and is a "priority project" for Desfa. FID is planned for June 2025, and commercial start-up in March 2027. A related €151mn plan will duplicate the 100km Patima-Livadeia line, which will increase pressure in the system and enable firm capacity from the Dioriga Gas terminal. FID is planned for October 2025, and commercial operations in March 2027. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Paraguay River's record low slows fuel imports
Paraguay River's record low slows fuel imports
Sao Paulo, 9 September (Argus) — Water levels in the Paraguay River reached an all-time low in the capital of Asuncion today, hindering fuel imports. River depth at the Asuncion port was 89cm (35 inches) below normal levels for the first time in 120 years of measurement, according to Paraguay's meteorology and hydrology department DMH. Fuel imports into Paraguay largely depend on 3,000m³-capacity (18,990 bl) barges that carry product from the 171km (106-mile) mark of the Parana Guacu River, in the Parana River's delta in Argentina. As a result, barges are being loaded to about 80pc of capacity, or 2,500m³ each. One of the three docks belonging to state-owned oil company Petropar is inoperative because of the low river level in Villa Elisa, in Asuncion's metropolitan region. Another Petropar dock has a stationary barge serving as a bridge to access another barge. Still, freight tariffs have not increased yet, market participants said. The river's low levels are the result of scarce rainfall amid a persistent drought for the last few years, DMH said. DMH forecasts below-average rains in most of the region and especially in the Paraguay River basin for the next months. By Flavia Alemi Paraguay river draft in Asunción m Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf producers curb operations before storm: Update
US Gulf producers curb operations before storm: Update
Adds latest NOAA forecast data, BP update. New York, 9 September (Argus) — Oil companies started to evacuate workers and halt some operations in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of an expected hurricane later this week. Tropical storm Francine, which is forecast to strengthen to hurricane status as it moves north toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts by mid-week, threatens an offshore region that accounts for about 15pc of US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. Shell said it paused some drilling operations at the Perdido and Whale platforms, located about 190 miles south of Houston, and is withdrawing non-essential workers from its Enchilada/Salsa and Auger facilities. ExxonMobil said all staff had been transported off the Hoover platform, located about 200 miles south of Houston, and operations shut-in. And Chevron said it is evacuating non-essential workers from its Anchor, Big Foot, Jack/St. Malo and Tahiti facilities, though production from company-operated assets remains at normal levels. Those facilities are located about 280 miles south of New Orleans. "We continue to supply our customers at our onshore facilities, where we are following our storm preparedness procedures and paying close attention to the forecast and track of the storm," Chevron said. So far no major problems are reported for BP's offshore facilities in the region. Francine is forecast to approach the Louisiana and upper Texas coast on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. In a 2pm ET NHC advisory, the storm was about 450 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Strengthening is expected over the next day and Francine is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 85mph, on Wednesday evening, when it is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU needs to shake up energy markets: Draghi report
EU needs to shake up energy markets: Draghi report
Brussels, 9 September (Argus) — The EU should take measures in energy markets that are "dominated by vested interests", including antitrust investigations, a report from former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi found today. The call came as part of Draghi's report into the EU's future competitiveness, which was requested last year by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. It identified cost-efficient decarbonisation as a major challenge, and said the bloc must focus on accelerated innovation and growth and overcome geopolitical dependence and vulnerability. The report, which runs to more than 300 pages, says the EU should carry out antitrust investigation into electricity and gas markets, and into energy imports, to deter "anti-competitive behaviour and tacit collusion" among companies, it said. There should be a common maximum level of energy surcharges in the EU covering all energy taxes, levies and network charges, the report found. Draghi — a former Italian prime minister — put forward specific proposals for energy markets including the development of an EU-level gas strategy, progressively moving away from spot-linked sourcing and increasing EU bargaining power, and reinforcing long-term contracts. He argues for decoupling inframarginal generation from natural gas prices through long-term power purchasing agreements (PPAs) and contracts for difference (CfDs). Draghi wants compensation mechanisms for offering flexibility on markets as well as joint purchasing of energy in addition to demand aggregation. Other ideas tackle speculative behaviour via position limits and dynamic caps as well as an EU trading rule book with "an obligation to trade in the EU". A further proposal is a review of a so-called "ancillary activities" exemption, under EU financial regulation, whereby non-financials, typically energy, firms can trade energy derivatives more freely without being authorised as investment companies. Speaking alongside Draghi today, von der Leyen noted the need to shift away from fossil fuels and support industry through decarbonisation, also by bringing down energy prices. Draghi's report noted the difficulty of cutting emissions in hard-to-abate industries, as well as in the transport sector. Planning is crucial, the report noted. For industry, it recommended "a mixed strategy that combines different policy tools and approaches for different industries", importing some "necessary technology" while ensuring the bloc retains some manufacturing capacity. It called for "a joint decarbonisation and competitiveness plan where all policies are aligned behind the EU's objectives." Von der Leyen did not react to specific proposals put forward by Draghi, and she is not obligated to act on the report's proposals. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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