Finnish, Baltic gas demand up by 13pc on year in July

Combined Finnish and Baltic gas consumption increased on the year in July, but remained firmly below pre-2022 levels.

Combined demand in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last month rose to 2.37TWh from 2.1TWh in July 2023, although it was still well below the 2018-21 average of roughly 3.7TWh (see graph, data and download). This was a second consecutive month-on-month increase following demand at a near two-year low in May. Demand increasing between May and July is an unusual pattern, as pre-2022 consumption in the region tended to decline over the course of the summer before reaching a nadir in July or August.

The power sector was probably the main contributing factor to higher overall gas demand, as year-on-year increases in Latvian and Lithuanian gas-fired output more than offset lower Finnish generation (see table). In Latvia in particular, gas-fired generation jumped more than seven times compared with a year earlier, despite power demand remaining stable and hydropower output nearly doubling. Instead, Latvian gas-fired production displaced some net imports, which fell to 258GWh from 372GWh in July last year. Latvian gas demand peaked over the month at 27 GWh/d on 22-26 July, drastically above the average for other days of just 8 GWh/d. These were the same days that Latvia produced the majority of July's gas-fired power.

Prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange averaged €37.84/MWh in July, down by 5pc on the month but up by 3pc on the year. July broke the three-month trend of consecutive month-on-month increases, with prices having fallen in all four markets. Firms traded 500GWh on the exchange, up from 358GWh in July last year. Lithuania accounted for 40pc of trades, followed by the joint Latvian-Estonian market at 35pc and Finland with the remaining quarter.

Maintenance to change flows

Maintenance at the pivotal Kiemenai interconnection point on the Latvia-Lithuania border for most of August will change regional flow dynamics.

No capacity will be available in either direction at Kiemenai on the 3-25 August gas days, making it impossible to send regasified LNG from Lithuania's Klaipeda LNG terminal northward to Latvia for storage at the Incukalns facility. Klaipeda sendout consequently has dropped since 3 August, averaging 29 GWh/d on 3-8 August, compared with 101 GWh/d in July.

Despite the maintenance and demand remaining stable, an additional LNG delivery for 10 August was added to Klaipeda's schedule. This half-cargo may be mostly destined for reloads, as four small-scale reloads are planned at Klaipeda after the 10 August delivery. Some of these reloads could potentially go to Finland's off-grid terminals at Tornio and Pori, which are no longer supplied with Russian LNG after Gasum halted its purchases in late July because of sanctions.

But while maintenance at Kiemenai has started, restrictions further north on the Balticconnector have ended, enabling sendout from the Inkoo terminal to step up significantly to 85 GWh/d on 1-8 August from a much lower 32 GWh/d in July. Planned maintenance reduced capacity from Finland to Estonia on the Balticconnector to just 5 GWh/d for all of July, limiting sendout from Inkoo only to what could be absorbed by the domestic market and the small amount that could be sent southward. Maintenance also will reduce Finnish exit capacity to Estonia to zero on 14-27 October and 4-17 November.

By Brendan A'Hearn

July consumption by country GWh