US corn growers could sink deeper into red on downturn

: Agriculture
24/09/03

A more than 10pc drop in new-crop corn futures since early May has chipped away at early-season sales revenue estimates, potentially pushing domestic growers deeper into the red amid another season of elevated expenses.

US corn farmers face a $1.77bn cut in projected sales revenue based onpreliminary estimates for the 2024-25 crop as growers vie to liquidate old-crop inventories — pressuring new-crop 2025 futures values to the lowest level within the last two years.

The incremental dip in projected revenue has outpaced lower expenses and steepened projected losses for domestic corn growers, with estimated losses on a per-acre basis primed to slump to -$111.86/acre before considering government assistance, according to an Argus analysis of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.

Current conditions mark a reversal from the prior three seasons for corn growers and has sparked concern for another lengthy downturn in grain markets, according to Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer survey.

Farmers surveyed in August "expect this year's farm income downturn to last for an extended period" after enjoying multiple seasons of above-$200/acre profits from 2021-22 — which were preceded by seven consecutive years of double-digit losses from 2014-20, according to the USDA.

"Over the last several months, farmers' concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident," Purdue reported today. "In the August survey, producers' concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices."

Growers this year have grappled with the weakening grains market by extending and taking out new non-real-estate loans. Demand for new operating loans was above normal, outpaced real estate loan demand through the first half of the year and is expected to remain strong through the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — which represents growers from Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Corn prices will continue to face above-average inventories and record yield estimates, which has forced growers to liquidate inventory to clear space for this season's crop.

A silver lining, though, is lower acreage from other major corn producing countries, which could stem the current downtrend in corn values.

Argentina, which is the third-largest exporter of corn, could slash planted acreage by up to 50pc on price and pest concerns, while Brazilian farmers face worsening weather conditions that could erode planted area for the upcoming season.

By Connor Hyde

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25/06/16

US biofuel feed prices jump on blending plan

Houston, 16 June (Argus) — Prices for US biofuel feedstocks have risen sharply since the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) late last week proposed ambitious biofuel blending targets for the next two years along with lower incentives for using foreign feedstocks. Futures prices for soybean oil, the most widely used input for biodiesel production, have led the feedstock gains as the market prices in potentially higher demand. The Nymex front-month contract for soybean oil rose by 6.3pc on 13 June and by an additional 7.8pc on Monday to 54.6¢/lb, the highest since October 2023. The proposed targets , released on 13 June, would mandate that an equivalent amount of 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel be blended in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. The proposed volumes exceeded most market expectations and industry requests of 5.25bn USG and were significantly higher than the current-year mandate of 3.35bn USG, fueling expectations for increased biofuel feedstocks demand. In addition, domestic feedstocks may face reduced competition from foreign feedstocks under the proposal, which would cut federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit generation by 50pc for imported biofuels or fuels produced from foreign feedstocks. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs for the current year rallied Monday morning, trading between 127-132¢/RIN, up significantly from Friday's close of 109¢/RIN. Used cooking oil (UCO) railcar volumes to the US Gulf coast were reported trading at 59¢/lb early Monday morning, a 3.5pc jump from Friday's closing price of 57¢/lb, with additional selling interest emerging in the 60s¢/lb. UCO offers for volumes into California were noted in the high 60s¢/lb, up from last week's close in the high 50s¢/lb. Distillers corn oil (DCO) fob truck volumes in the Midwest traded at 61¢/lb on Monday morning, reflecting a 9pc jump from Friday's close of 56¢/lb. Poultry fat fob truck volumes in the southeast were offered in the low 50s¢/lb, up from last week's closing levels in the low 40s¢/lb, but buying interest has not emerged at those levels. Activity for other renewable feedstocks remains limited for now, but market participants anticipate increased trading later this week, driven by the recent proposal and gains in futures markets. The EPA proposal is currently in an open comment period, with a public hearing scheduled for 8 July. By Payne Williams and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

25/06/13

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates, foreign limits

25/06/13

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates, foreign limits

New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects that oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. That's a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated for foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol of 15bn RINs, similar to prior years. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, and RIN credits rallied similarly. Current year D6 credits, typically generated from conventional ethanol production, traded at 92¢/RIN near the opening of the session before peaking at 110¢/RIN and then retreating slightly. Current year biomass-based diesel D4 RINs followed a similar trajectory, trading up to 116¢/RIN and widening the gap with conventional D6 RINs. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel. EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend, effectively requiring those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level volume targets. EPA in the proposal said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching back to 2016. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. An industry official briefed on Thursday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA draft biofuel blend mandate expected Friday: Update

25/06/12

EPA draft biofuel blend mandate expected Friday: Update

Updates with changes throughout New York, 12 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration plans to release draft biofuel blend mandates for 2026 and 2027 on Friday, according to three people familiar with the matter. The draft quotas, in addition to a separate final rule cutting cellulosic biofuel mandates for last year, exited White House interagency review on Wednesday, the last step before major regulations can be released. The Trump administration has meetings with legislative stakeholders on Friday morning ahead of the public release, three people said. Previously scheduled meetings through the end of the month as part of the interagency review process appear to have been cancelled, another signal that the rules' release is imminent. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said it wants to get the frequently delayed Renewable Fuel Standard program back on its statutory timeline, which would require volumes for 2027 to be finalized before November this year. Any proposal will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed. EPA said the rules will be posted on its website once they are signed by Lee Zeldin, the agency's administrator. A coalition of biofuel-producing groups and feedstock suppliers, including the American Petroleum Institute, has pushed EPA to set a biomass-based diesel mandate of 5.25bn USG for 2026, hoping that a record-high target will support biorefineries that have struggled this year. Many plants have idled or run less recently, as uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and tariffs that up feedstock costs all hurt margins. US senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said Thursday that closed biodiesel plants in his state needed a 5.25bn mandate to reopen. Meanwhile, a coalition of independent and small refiners that have long lamented the costs of the program wrote to EPA this week asking for less-aspirational future mandates, including for the conventional category mostly met by corn ethanol. RIN markets were volatile today, trading higher in the morning before slipping lower on fears the mandates would not meet industry expectations. Current year ethanol D6 RINs traded as high as 99¢/RIN before falling as low as 90¢/RIN. Current year biomass-based diesel D4 RINs ended Thursday at 102.5¢/RIN, equal to their close the prior day. Small refinery exemptions loom Zeldin told a House subcommittee last month the agency wanted "to get caught up as quickly as we can" on a backlog of small refiner requests for program exemptions. Courts took issue with EPA's exemption policy during Trump's first term and again during President Joe Biden's tenure, leaving officials now with dozens of waiver requests covering 10 compliance years still pending. It is unclear whether the rule will provide much clarity on EPA's plans for program waivers, but biofuel groups have worried that widespread exemptions would curb demand for their products. The price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used for program compliance have been volatile this year on rumors about these exemptions, which EPA has called market manipulation. In both the Trump and Biden administrations, EPA estimated future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners had to blend, effectively requiring those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level volume targets. The agency could continue that approach, but it would be more legally treacherous for the agency to similarly "reallocate" exempted volumes from past years into future standards, lawyers said. EPA by law also has to consult on exemption decisions with the Department of Energy, which a person familiar said was "still going through the scoring process" for assessing some small refinery applications, making quick resolution of the issue unlikely. Unresolved court cases, including a Supreme Court case about the proper venue for small refinery waiver disputes, could also give regulators pause until they know more. Tax credit clarity expected soon Senate committees this week have been releasing their versions of key parts of the major Republican spending bill, and the Senate Finance Committee is expected to do so soon, potentially as early as Friday according to people familiar. The incentive is crucial for biofuel production margins and thus for the viability of EPA mandates too. The version that passed the House last month would extend the "45Z" clean fuel production credit through 2031, bar regulators from considering indirect land use emissions, and restrict eligibility to fuels from North American feedstocks. While various ideas have circulated this year, lobbyists expect the Senate to preserve the general structure of the credit, which throttles benefits based on carbon intensity, rather than reinvent a new subsidy. Still, some Republicans have expressed concern with the House's phaseout of tax credit "transferability", which benefits smaller companies without much tax liability. And major oil refiners with renewable diesel plants reliant on Asian used cooking oil and South American tallow have lobbied for more flexibility around foreign feedstocks. Any changes that up the credit's costs could be controversial too among conservatives worried about the bill's impacts on a mounting federal budget deficit. And the complex tax credit will ultimately need final regulations from the US Department of Treasury clarifying eligibility. At a Senate hearing Thursday, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump administration planned to implement the credit in a way to "not allow for foreign actors to have a back door into the program." By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

25/06/12

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

New York, 12 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is close to releasing two regulations informing oil refiners how much biofuel they must blend into the conventional fuel supply. The two rules — proposed biofuel blend mandates for at least 2026 and most likely for 2027 as well as a separate final rule cutting cellulosic fuel mandates for last year — exited White House review on Wednesday, the last step before major regulations can be released. Previously scheduled meetings as part of the process appear to have been cancelled, another signal that the rules' release is imminent. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said it wants to get the frequently delayed Renewable Fuel Standard program back on its statutory timeline, which would require volumes for 2027 to be finalized before November this year. Any proposal will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed. A coalition of biofuel-producing groups and feedstock suppliers, including the American Petroleum Institute, has pushed EPA to set a biomass-based diesel mandate of 5.25bn USG for 2026, hoping that a record-high target will support biorefineries that have struggled this year. Many plants have idled or run less recently, as uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and tariffs that up feedstock costs all hurt margins. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin also told a House subcommittee last month the agency wanted "to get caught up as quickly as we can" on a backlog of small refiner requests for program exemptions. Courts took issue with EPA's exemption policy during Trump's first term and again during President Joe Biden's tenure, leaving officials now with dozens of waiver requests covering multiple compliance years still pending. It is unclear whether the rule will provide clarity on EPA's plans for program waivers — including whether the agency will up obligations on other parties to make up for exempt small refiners — but biofuel groups have worried that widespread exemptions would curb demand for their products. The price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used for program compliance have been volatile this year on rumors about these exemptions, which EPA has called market manipulation. RIN trading picked up and prices rose on the news as Thursday's session began. Bids and offers for 2025 ethanol D6 RINs, the most prevalent type currently trading, began the day at 96¢/RIN and 98¢/RIN, respectively. Deals were struck shortly after at 98¢/RIN and 99¢/RIN, with seller interest at one point reaching 100¢/RIN — well above a 95.5¢/RIN settle on Wednesday. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs with concurrent vintage followed the same path with sellers holding ground as high as 107¢/RIN. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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