As focus shifts to setting new emissions-reduction targets for 2035 against a backdrop of under-promised and undelivered 2030 goals, November's UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, will need to provide the much lacking fuel to power the previous summit's ideals.
Countries will be expected to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate agreement — emissions cut targets, this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. Denmark's climate minister Dan Jorgensen said this year forthcoming NDCs "have to be informed by the decisions [at Cop 28] in Dubai and will be measured on their meaning".
The global stocktake signed there last year included an energy section calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 and for "accelerating action in this critical decade", giving the direction countries need to take in the energy transition.
But the agreement has little momentum. Although some countries, including the UK, have signalled they have made a start on their 2035 plans, work remains very much in progress. The UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil — the so-called Cop presidencies troika — in July encouraged parties to "step up the work" ahead of Cop 29, calling on "early movers" to signal their commitments as early as this month.
Among major emitters, the EU has yet to set its 2035 targets, although the European Commission has proposed a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90pc by 2040 from a 1990 baseline. The US said it would develop an "ambitious" new plan within the UN deadline. But any developments will hinge on the results of the country's election taking place just days before Cop 29 starts. And China recently unveiled new guidelines, but stopped short of issuing new targets.
Shaky foundations
Countries will need to increase previous ambition levels significantly for the new targets to be sufficient. Even if all 2030 plans submitted up to 25 September last year were implemented, emissions reductions would still be at least 11bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) short of what is needed to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and 19bn t of CO2e short for 1.5°C — the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement — according to the UN.
Australia was the sole G20 member on track to meet its 2030 target for outright emissions reductions as of last October, according to IEA analysis. And only Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the US, EU, UK and Brazil have outright emissions-reduction targets. Other G20 members are either measuring their emissions against business-as-usual scenarios or capping them at a specified level, which leaves space for further increases.
Room for manoeuvre grows ever smaller, with an 80pc likelihood that the average global temperature across one of the next five years will breach the 1.5°C target, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Last year was the warmest on record, averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels.
Cop 29 could be the catalyst needed to step up action, particularly for countries that would struggle financially to implement stricter measures. Parties will agree a new climate finance goal at the summit and resume talks on the outstanding elements of carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris deal, another way in which mitigation outcomes and finance can be transferred between regions. But success hinges, as ever, on high levels of co-operation between countries with conflicting interests, something that has already seen Article 6 disagreements rumble on for years.
