Latest market news

Energy firms on alert after flooding in Europe: Update

  • : Electricity, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 24/09/16

Adds details throughout

Torrential rain has led to major flooding across large swathes of central and eastern Europe, causing power outages and significant damage to transport infrastructure in southwest Poland and the Czech Republic. Parts of Austria, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania are also affected.

In Poland, most of the affected areas so far are in the southwest of the country close to the border with the Czech Republic including the towns of Jelenia Gora, Klodzko, Nysa and Glucholazy. Urban areas further down the Odra river are also at risk including the cities of Wroclaw and Opole, where elevated water levels are expected in the coming days.

The Polish government held an emergency meeting earlier today and a state of emergency has since been declared in the affected areas.

Polish utility company Tauron, which operates the electricity distribution network in the worst affected area, said some of its infrastructure was disconnected in several towns including Klodzko and Glucholazy. But Poland's power grid operator PSE said there has been no damage to transmission infrastructure. Likewise, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said it has not suffered any damage but remains in crisis mode.

Polish train operator PKP Intercity suspended passenger rail traffic to and from the Czech Republic on 15 September until further notice, while local TV showed images of damaged road and waterways infrastructure, including bridges and dams as well as retail fuel stations.

Poland's wholesale coal market, which is usually busy in the autumn, could stall in flood-hit areas for a few weeks as priority is given to the clean-up operation and repairing transport infrastructure, according to traders in the country. But Polish biofuel firm Bioagra, which operates a bioethanol plant near the flood-hit town of Nysa, told Argus that the facility continues to operate normally.

In the Czech Republic, Orlen Unipetrol — operator of 108,000 b/d Litvinov and 66,000 b/d Kralupy refineries — said all its production sites continue to operate although the company has shut 11 of its service stations in the country. The firm said its crisis management team at each production site is monitoring the situation and it is in contact with authorities. Elsewhere in the Czech Republic, utility Veolia has had to shut plants in Ostrava and Krnov.

Hungarian oil firm Mol — which operates service stations in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, as well as refineries in Hungary and Slovakia — told Argus that preparatory flood prevention works are underway. It is in contact with authorities and there is currently no threat to security of fuel supply, it said.

Hungarian authorities expect water levels on the river Danube at Budapest to continue rising until the weekend, which could affect Veolia's 428MW gas-fired power plant at Gonyu upstream from the capital and potentially power firm MVM's 2GW Paks nuclear plant downstream from Budapest. Floods on smaller rivers Lajta and Raba in northwest Hungary are also yet to peak.

Austrian refiner OMV said it has put in place precautionary safety and mitigation measures at its 193,700 b/d Schwechat refinery and two other sites at Gansendorf and Lobau in the federal state of Lower Austria, which was declared a disaster region on 15 September. No damage to property or people has been reported so far but OMV has closed four retail stations temporarily in the state as a precaution, it said.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/10/08

Asia LNG premium to Europe falls to six-month low

Asia LNG premium to Europe falls to six-month low

London, 8 October (Argus) — The premium offered by northeast Asian delivered LNG markets over those in northwest Europe for prompt Atlantic loadings has this week slipped to its smallest since early May, as very low winter charter rates force European firms to bid higher compared to Asian buyers in order to secure cargoes. The Argus Northeast Asia (ANEA) des price for December offered just a 39¢/mn Btu premium to the northwest Europe November des price on 7 October. The spread dropped to 33¢/mn Btu on 4 October — the smallest since 2 May — having been as much as $2.36/mn Btu on 19 September ( see ANEA premium graph ). At least four LNG carriers loaded from US liquefaction terminals have diverted away from heading to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope to Europe instead over the last week, judging by shiptracking data from Kpler, likely stemming from the narrowing premium offered by Asian markets compared to Europe. The inter-basin spread has tightened since mid-September largely because a rally in European delivered markets has not been matched by Asia. The northwest Europe November des price increased by $1.85/mn Btu over 19 September-7 October, largely as a result of extensions to Norwegian pipeline maintenance, incremental downward revisions in minimum temperature forecasts, and geopolitical concerns surrounding conflict in the Middle East. The corresponding ANEA price, on the other hand, was little changed over the same period, as warmer weather than the seasonal average curbed early heating gas demand. Prompt shipping rates holding lower on the year has also forced European buyers to bid higher in order to compete with their Asian counterparts and ensure uncommitted Atlantic cargoes head for Europe. The prompt Argus Round Voyage rate (ARV2) for tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) carriers in the Atlantic basin stood at $40,000/d today, compared to $130,000/d a year earlier ( see ARV2 spot charter graph ), with some firms even viewing additional shipping capacity as a sunk cost given the number of available vessels at present and difficulties subletting spare shipping capacity. The quick delivery of newbuild LNG carriers this year, coupled with the lack of floating storage in Europe, has contributed to a very shallow contango in forward freight prices. Forward winter rates for two-stroke vessels delivering US LNG to northwest Europe (ARV5) peak at $81,000/d in December, having been revised lower from over $100,000/d at the start of September ( see ARV2 winter rates graph ). Weak charter rates mean European buyers will likely continue to have to bid higher relative Asian bids over the winter than in previous winters, when the freight market was tighter, particularly in instances of cold snaps or other events which would tighten the global LNG balance. Europe's demand for LNG was consistently lower on the year over the second and third quarter of 2024, as Asian demand held the inter-basin arbitrage for US LNG mostly open. But imports to Europe are likely to step higher in the fourth quarter, with the arbitrage firmly shut. Minimum temperatures across the northwest — where much of the region's heating demand emanates from — are forecast to hold below the seasonal average from mid-October onwards, which may spur gas consumption. And the EU's underground gas storages are less full than a year earlier. Aggregate gas stocks stood at 1,083TWh on 1 October 2024, marginally lower than last year's 1091TWh, though both are above the EU-mandated 90pc target. A lack of floating storage this year could limit deliveries later in the year however, with European receipts over the period in the past two years supported by the unwinding of floating storage, mainly in November and December, boosting supply as colder weather boosts heating demand. By Cerys Edwards ARV2 spot charter costs 2022-2024 ARV2 winter rates assessed over Jan-Sept 2024 ANEA premium to NWE August-October Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range


24/10/08
24/10/08

Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range

London, 8 October (Argus) — A rally in recent weeks has pushed gas prices up to a range at which even older coal-fired power stations would be more profitable to run than some of the most efficient gas-fired power stations. European gas benchmark price the Dutch TTF front-month has risen strongly over the past two weeks, having closed at €40.57/MWh on 7 October, up from a recent low of €32.80/MWh on 19 September. The higher gas prices have outstripped similar price increases of other energy-related commodities such as coal, with the TTF front-month contract approaching the top of the gas-to-coal fuel-switching range ( see TTF front-month graph ). In assessments on 3 and 4 October, even older coal-fired power stations with an efficiency of 42pc would would be more profitable to run than the newest gas-fired turbines with an efficiency of 60pc, for the first time since early December last year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to gas' price increase. But with muted LNG deliveries to the continent so far this shoulder season and colder weather than last year, European gas storage sites are less full than they were a year earlier. European stocks were filled to about 94.5pc of capacity on the morning of 7 October, according to GIE transparency platform data, down from 96.7pc a year earlier. Demand has already stepped up strongly in some countries, pushing the continent to some days of net withdrawals from storage earlier in the autumn than in most recent years. While coal prices have also stepped up slightly in turn, partly in reaction to the expectations of higher coal burn, their slower upwards momentum has brought coal largely ahead of gas in the merit order. Many coal trading firms have banked on a strong coal burn this winter, with low trading activity in the shoulder season so far, which incentivises trading companies to keep coal prices close to the fuel-switching level, market participants have told Argus . And prompt prices for European CO2 emissions allowances in September and October so far have been about 20pc lower on the year, closing at an average of €64.24/t, compared with €81.60/t over the same period in 2023. Lower emissions prices benefit higher coal burn as coal is more CO2-intensive than gas, requiring operators to purchase and surrender more CO2 emissions certificates. A similar price movement happened last autumn, when a rally in early October pushed the TTF front-month price to the top of the fuel-switching range. But from early December, when a mild winter reduced the remaining risks for gas security of supply, prices fell through the fuel-switching ranges sharply , to the bottom of the range. Impact probably highest in Germany Germany is one of the last remaining markets with large numbers of both coal- and gas-fired power stations in Europe, leaving the market able to react to price movements in either market more flexibly. The power sector can still provide considerable demand-side flexibility in the German gas market, while coal phase-out plans in the rest of Europe mean the scope for alternating between the thermal generation fuels has narrowed. Gas prices can provide the signal that the market has spare gas for the power sector to burn by falling into coal-to-gas switching territory, while gas prices climb above the fuel-switching range to discourage gas-fired generation when the gas market is tighter. Last winter, gas prices at the very bottom of the fuel-switching range encouraged the highest gas-fired generation in Germany in at least a decade , according to data from European system operators' association Entso-E. While many German coal and gas-fired plants are combined-heat-and-power plants, which do not respond to price incentives as flexibly as pure power plants, the impact of the fuel switch on gas' share in the thermal generation mix was still visible last winter in Germany. In October and November, with prices at the top of the range, gas-fired generation at 6GW met 55pc of the combined call on coal and gas. But when prices dropped through the switching range, gas' share increased to 63pc in December-March, with about 7.3GW of gas-fired generation ( see generation percentage graph ). In addition, the German storage levy of €2.50/MWh, which power producers must pay, pushes gas prices up further in the fuel-switching range. The levy, which is likely to rise further from next year , thus further decreases gas' profitability compared with coal, which could be detrimental for Germany's own coal phase-out plans. By Till Stehr TTF front-month vs fuel-switching range €/MWh German gas- and coal-fired generation and fuel-switching price pc, €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Serbia, N Macedonia sign agreement on gas link


24/10/08
24/10/08

Serbia, N Macedonia sign agreement on gas link

London, 8 October (Argus) — The governments of Serbia and North Macedonia on 7 October signed an agreement on the construction of a 70km gas interconnector, although no timeline for the project was given. The agreement was signed in Skopje by the Serbian and North Macedonian prime ministers. Serbian prime minister Milos Vucevic said that with the new interconnection, Serbia aims to create another supply route from Greece's new Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, where Serbia's dominant supplier, Srbijagas, holds capacity . It is unclear why another route is needed given the recent commissioning of the Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia, although flows through the link have been low since its commissioning at the beginning of this year, with Azerbaijan's Socar having been the only user under its so far underutilised 365mn m³/yr contract with Srbijagas. The 70km pipeline will have a capacity of about 1.2bn m³/yr, Vucevic said according to state news agency Tanjug, but no timeline was given for its construction. Serbia wants to "expand the number of partners interested in co-operating with us in the energy sector and that will definitely lead, or contribute, to our state's energy stability", Vucevic said, adding that the North Macedonian side also expressed interest in building an oil or oil products pipeline simultaneously with the gas pipeline. North Macedonia is also "finalising a tender procedure that will finally start the construction of the interconnector with our southern neighbour [Greece], to provide an additional option for gas supply to central Europe", Vucevic's North Macedonian counterpart, Hristijan Mickoski, said. Greek grid operator Desfa has already started construction of the 1.5bn m³/yr interconnector, which is scheduled to begin commercial operations at the start of 2026, according to Desfa's latest plans . By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet


24/10/08
24/10/08

German 3Q hard coal output falls on reduced fleet

London, 8 October (Argus) — Hard coal-fired output from German utilities dropped by 23pc on the year in July-September, largely driven by a smaller generation capacity following a series of plant retirements or returning to grid reserve in the first half of 2024. German hard coal-fired generation averaged 2.1GW in the third quarter, according to European grid operator Entso-E. Compared with a year ago this was equivalent to around 505,000t of NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal consumption, assuming 40pc efficiency plants. September output reached a seven-month high of 2.9GW, but it was down by 15pc from a year earlier. Germany's overall available hard coal-fired capacity was 6.5GW in September, cut by 1.6GW on the year, based on European Energy Exchange (EEX) data. The German hard coal fleet's implied load factor was 45pc in September, slightly higher than 41pc from a year ago. Trianel was the German utility with the highest hard coal-fired generation in July-September, as it raised the output from its sole 750MW hard coal plant Lunen 1 in northwest Germany by 28pc on the year to 380MW. Oynx meanwhile produced the second-highest hard coal output in the third quarter, averaging 352MW, as it was the generator with the sharpest rise in coal burn from a year earlier at 53pc. This was despite the company closing its 350MW Farge plant in March. Phase-out weigh on coal burn Uniper was Germany's largest hard coal-fired operator in the third quarter of last year, but its hard coal output halved on the year to just 316MW in July-September because the utility took off the bulk of its fleet from the market. Only the 1.05GW Datteln 4 plant was running in the third quarter, given Uniper placed its four other hard coal-fired units — the 345MW Scholven B, 345MW Scholven C, 522MW Staudinger 5 and 875MW Heyden 4 — into the grid reserve earlier this year. The company could no longer run hard coal plants within Germany in the near future as it seeks to sell Datteln 4 plant . Similarly, fellow utility EnBW transferred its 517MW Karlsruhe RDK 7 into the reserve in late May, which contributed to a 35pc on-year fall in its total hard coal-fired generation to 248MW in July-September. Steag took off a larger capacity of hard coal assets — around 2GW from three sites in Saarland — from the market in the first half, resulting in a 32pc drop on the year to 99MW in the third quarter. Smaller operators likewise exited coal this year, with Bremen-based SWB shutting down its 119MW Hastedt 15 hard coal-fired unit in the end of April. The municipal utility has already replaced Hastedt 15 with a 104MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant . In addition, Czech utility EPH retired the 690MW Mehrum 3 plant in late March, having returned to the market in August 2022. Elsewhere, Wolfsburg-based industrial user Volkswagen decommissioned its two 138MW coal-fired units in March as the company opted for coal-to-gas fuel switching. Firm renewables supress thermal generation Wind and solar output rose on the year in the third quarter, crowding out not only hard coal but also gas and lignite within the German power mix. Combined wind and solar generation averaged 23.3GW during July-September, up by 12pc on the year. Solar output alone picked up by 2.1GW, owing to a higher load factor and increased installed capacity. Considering hydro and biomass generation also incrementally rose on the year in the third quarter, the overall strength in renewables meant Germany had to cut down thermal power output and cross-border imports in a bid to balance out with the demand, which only rose by 3pc on the year to 54.8GW in the same period. Consequently, thermal generation from hard coal, gas and lignite all fell on the year in the third quarter, but lignite dropped to 7.4GW at a slower rate of just 4pc compared with other fuels because of its low fuel procurement cost. German lignite-fired plants typically source their fuel from nearby mines. German gas-fired output was down by 26pc on the year to 7.1GW in July-September, in part owing to theoretical spark spreads deteriorating from a year earlier. In the beginning of the third quarter, a typical 55pc-efficient gas-fired plant using German VTP supplies was ahead of a 40pc-efficient German hard coal-fired unit on a month-ahead basis, but in the end of the quarter, such coal-gas fuel switching dynamics flipped (see chart). Ronald Kim DE month ahead fuel switching € MWh €/MWh DE coal output by operator GW GW DE hard coal-fired output GW GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus


24/10/08
24/10/08

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

London, 8 October (Argus) — Last month was the second hottest September on record globally, after September 2023, with average temperatures 0.73°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to data from the EU climate-monitoring service Copernicus. Last month's average temperatures globally were 1.54°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels and September's average was the 14th month in a 15-month period when the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature for the 12 months to September was the second highest on record for any 12-month period — 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The January–September 2024 global-average temperature was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for the period and 0.19°C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is almost certain that 2024 will turn out to be the warmest year on record, Copernicus said. The average temperature over European land for September 2024 was 1.74°C above the 1991-2020 average for September, making it the second warmest September on record for Europe after September 2023, which was 2.51°C above average. Last month also had exceptionally high rainfall levels across much of the continent, with widespread floods across central Europe. Last year was the hottest on record , averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial temperatures. By Gavin Attridge Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more