Ellie Saklatvala, Senior Editor — Nonferrous Metals, provides a bitesize overview of the key price movements that happened in Q1 and how supply and demand fundamentals are shaping up as we move through Q2.
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Korea's Posco starts output at new NCA cathode plant
Korea's Posco starts output at new NCA cathode plant
Singapore, 14 October (Argus) — South Korean battery materials producer Posco Future M, a subsidiary of conglomerate Posco, has begun producing nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cathodes at its plant in Pohang ahead of schedule, citing "customer requests". The 30,000 t/yr NCA cathode plant that sits in North Gyeongsang province's Pohang city was originally planned to start production and sales in 2025. Posco Future M has another NCA plant under construction in South Jeolla province's Gwangyang city, which will have a production capacity of 52,500 t/yr. The firm in 2023 signed a 10-year deal to supply fellow battery manufacturer Samsung SDI with high-nickel NCA cathodes, which will come from some of the lines at the upcoming Gwangyang plant, it said. The company expects to reach 248,500 t/yr of cathode material production capacity by 2026, with 106,000 t/yr from Pohang and 142,500 t/yr from Gwangyang, because of the continuing electric vehicle (EV) market slowdown, it said on 14 October. These capacities are markedly lower from a goal of 320,000 t/yr by 2025 that the firm said in July last year. Posco Future M earlier in September suspended plans to build a nickel sulphate and battery precursors plant with major Chinese lithium-ion battery metal and cathode active material (CAM) manufacturer Huayou Cobalt because of an EV "chasm". The term typically refers to the adoption gap in new technologies between early adopters and mass market consumers, which may be the cause of the slowdown in ex-China EV sales. The firm in September also disclosed that it is pushing back the timeline to complete a 30,000 t/yr high-nickel CAM plant in Canada's Quebec , which is a joint venture with US automaker General Motors, citing "local conditions". The plant was supposed to be completed in the second half of 2024. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Novelis, TSR sign Al scrap supply agreement
Novelis, TSR sign Al scrap supply agreement
London, 9 October (Argus) — US-based aluminium roller and recycler Novelis has entered into a strategic three-year agreement with European scrap processor TSR Recycling to ensure a stable supply of around 75,000t of pre-sorted and processed end-of-life aluminium scrap for its production of low-carbon aluminium sheet for the automotive sector, the company said today. Novelis processed around 700,000t of aluminium scrap in Europe last year, and plans to increase that figure by around 50,000t this year. TSR processes ferrous and non-ferrous metal scrap, and has a long-standing partnership with Novelis that is strengthened by this agreement. The agreement comes at a time rising demand for recycled material in the feedstock of aluminium producers globally, as the industry increases its focus on sustainability and the lowering of scope 2 carbons emissions. "Availability of end-of-life material is crucial as Novelis is constantly developing innovative solutions with its automotive customers to absorb more pre and post-consumer scrap into new, high recycled-content automotive aluminium alloys," Novelis said. By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Nittetsu in tie-up to develop Chilean Cu mine
Japan’s Nittetsu in tie-up to develop Chilean Cu mine
Tokyo, 9 October (Argus) — Japanese metal producer Nittetsu Mining has agreed to form a joint venture with Vancouver-based exploration firm Camino Minerals to develop a copper mining project in Chile. This comes as part of Nittetsu's mid-term strategy to achieve 50,000 t/yr of copper production by 2033. The 50:50 joint venture betweenNittetsu and Camino plans to develop the Puquios Copper Project in Chile's central Coquimbo region, the Japanese firm announced on 8 October. The investment amount and production volume of crude ore and copper concentrates were undisclosed. But copper equivalent output could be around 15,000 t/yr, according to the Nittetsu representative who spoke to Argus . The Japanese firm is still in discussions with Camino over potential offtake amount, the representative added. The project will start commercial operations after completing the environmental approval process, which could take another few years, Nittetsu said. "This opportunity aligns with Nittetsu's commitment to expanding our footprint in the copper sector by utilising our extensive operational experience and technical expertise", said Nittetsu's general manager Shinichiro Mita. The Japanese firm has separately been developing the Arqueros copper project in Chile since April 2023, with funding by state-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation (Jbic). The company aims to start producing 15,000 t/yr sometime during April 2026 and March 2027, which is similar to the output volume expected at Puquios project. Japan's government strongly encourages domestic firms to secure copper supply sources. The country's strategic energy plan was revised in 2021, with an aim to lift base metal self-sufficiency to 80pc by 2030, up by around 30 percentage points from the 2018 level. But the strategy appears to not be on track, the country's ministry of trade and industry Meti said in September, although it did not disclose the current rate. Nittetsu expects copper price is likely to remain bullish in the mid-to long term, given higher copper demand driven by decarbonisation and electrification efforts. But the price could face higher volatility in the short term, the company said in July. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American
Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American
London, 4 October (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel producers will continue to import and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to John Eastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainless and specialty steel raw materials. A region-wide scarcity of stainless steel scrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using the cheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with imports equating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to Red Door Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argus this week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after a five-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI as input feedstock. Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminar during LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in the near term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's tax measure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-term climate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase before full planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offset the CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas by buying emissions certificates. Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as they realise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to be limited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 August and was last at an average €1,175/t. The European stainless steel industry is facing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straight year in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacity amid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change to fundamentals until the second half of 2025. "The problem is not profitability, the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out of the market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market and prices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickel sales, which tells you how weak the market is." Eastwood believes the second half of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros and easing monetary policy will start to kick in. CBAM has come under intense criticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not include scope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, with many producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that is fast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressed on reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay. "There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refined nickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain. Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will pay this." Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the sole provider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickel prices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year. "The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story about nickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change." Eastwood noted freight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industry next year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe. "Freight prices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year," he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports or otherwise." By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
