<article><p>Opec said today that forecasts for non-Opec supply this year have "become more uncertain". Although investments are being deferred because of the lower oil price, "there has been a reduction in production costs, mainly in the US, as well as increased hedging, with producers choosing to produce with losses rather than stop production".</p><p>But the latest<i> Monthly Oil Market Report </i>(MOMR)<i></i>maintains the forecast of a 700,000 b/d fall in non-Opec oil production in 2016, compared with 2015, to 56.39mn b/d. The 56.39mn b/d figure is some 110,000 b/d up on last month's figure because an upward adjustment in the 2015 estimate.</p><p>The MOMR holds the forecast for global demand growth unchanged from last month at 1.25mn b/d, to average 94.23mn b/d. But a diffident assessment of the global economy only concludes that providing "some of the existing upside potentials materialise, improving global economic growth can lead to higher oil demand later this year".</p><p>Production data supplied to the Opec secretariat by member countries indicate a somewhat larger month-on-month fall in Opec output than <i>Argus </i>estimates. Excluding Indonesia and Libya, which did not submit data to the secretariat, Opec data show a 500,000 b/d fall to 32.4mn b/d, whereas <i>Argus</i> numbers show a fall of around 200,000 b/d.</p><p>Member country submissions indicate a 317,000 b/d drop in Iraqi exports — accounted for in large part by the closure of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline mid-month after an explosion. UAE production is put 354,000 b/d lower, because of maintenance at Murban. Saudi Arabia said its production was virtually flat at 10.22mn b/d while Iran said it only produced 15,000 b/d more than in January, despite a full month of exports unhampered by US and EU nuclear-related sanctions.</p><p>Opec's forecast for the call on its crude this year is 31.52mn b/d, up by 1.78mn b/d on last year, largely unchanged from the previous MOMR.</p><div id="article-footer"><p><br> Send comments to <a href="mailto:feedback@argusmedia.com" target="_parent"> feedback@argusmedia.com </a></p><p><u><a href="http://www.argusmedia.com/Info/General/News" target="_TOP"> Request more information </a></u> about Argus' energy and commodity news, data and analysis services. </p><p><i> Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd - <a href="http://www.argusmedia.com/" target="_TOP"> www.argusmedia.com </a> - All rights reserved. </i></p></div></article>