GLOBAL MACRO-ECONOMIC & CRUDE MARKET REVIEW
- Chief Economist, Argus
Which path for economic recovery post-coronavirus?
Impact on oil demand and short-term outlook
How the crisis has affected non-OPEC supply, notably US shale
Does OPEC+ still exist, and if so, what is its role going forward?
OIL MARKET BALANCE IN 2020: HOW AND WHEN?
- Chief Economist for Russia and CIS, BP
Global oil demand dynamics during and after the quarantine is a hostage to governmental actions to limit the pandemic. But it will also affect possible changes in consumer sentiment after the removal of the quarantine. This will have longer-term consequences.
Administrative measures to cut production are likely to be insufficient to balance oil market fundamentals in the coming months. In such a situation the economy of oil storage and transportation has an even greater impact on the dynamics of current prices than the traditional production cost
It is infrastructure and logistics constraints that may become crucial for determining who will have to reduce production in addition to the announced administrative cuts
RE-THINKING ASIA’S LONG-TERM OIL SUPPLY: MIDDLE EAST RUSHES TO CEMENT LEAD
- VP, LPG & Crude Middle East & Asia Pacific, Argus
What does the coronavirus oil demand shock mean for Asian refiners?
Saudi Arabia reasserts control in the battle for market share
Pricing mechanisms working to halt Atlantic basin crude shipments to Asia-Pacific
Middle Eastern NOCs change markers: the fragmentation of pricing
Short-haul Russian crude performs well in a challenging environment
Upside down: New price relationships in the US Gulf coast crude markets
CHINESE MARKETS AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS: THE WINNER OF A PRICE WAR
- VP China Crude and Products, Argus
China is back in the market. Demand is rising strongly and that is making China a key battleground for oil market share, following Saudi Arabia’s decision to ramp up output and slash prices
Record amounts of Urals crude traded on a delivered basis to China in March as sour crude suppliers slashed prices to match Saudi discounts
US is joining the fight for Chinese market share, suggesting an intensely competitive market developing in the third quarter of the year.
Where this price war can lead without high level government intervention?
RUSSIA’S PROSPECTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CRUDE MARKETS
- VP, FSU Business Development, Argus
Urals prices are at 21st century record lows
Far Eastern grades are traded with discounts first time in history
Outlooks for production increase with negative export margins
Refinery maintenance season: rise of exports amid lack of global demand
OIL INDUSTRY UNDER THE ULTRA-NEW-NORMAL ENVIRONMENT
- Energy Center Leader, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe & Central Asia, EY
Can OPEC+ agreement return the optimism to the market?
How are the upstream projects doing? Should we expect the plunge of oil production amid profitability drop?
Refining: pricing anomaly?
Strategies adjusting: is there any unique response of oil&gas companies to Covid-19?
CRUDE IN THE TIME OF CORONAVIRUS – THE VIEW FROM EUROPE
- VP Crude, Europe, Argus
Europe’s crude mix – changing volumes from Mideast, Russia, US and North Sea
Freight rates – Saudi buying spree pushes rates higher, constrains long haul trade
Localisation of benchmarks – less long-haul trade pushes benchmarks into own backyards
Market structure – contango drives crude into floating storage
Crude oversupply – Coronavirus delays North Sea field maintenance while hammering demand
US CRUDE MARKET OVERVIEW
- VP - Business Development, Crude & NGL, North America, Argus
US crude production will fall, but how far and how fast?
Is shale really the weakest link?
What do low prices mean for the US infrastructure boom?
Is this the end of US exports?
Can imports compete with domestic North American crude?
REAL TIME CRUDE FOR REAL TIME DECISIONS
- Unified Supply Chain Management – Spiral Assay Product Manager, AVEVA