<article><p class="lead">The Opec+ coalition has trimmed its forecast for this year's global crude supply surplus to 800,000 b/d, down by 200,000 b/d from its estimate at the end of June.</p><p>The previous forecast was itself a <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2345243">400,000 b/d downward revision</a>. Prior to that the surplus forecast was 1.9mn b/d.</p><p>Two Opec+ delegates said the latest assumption was made under the Opec+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) base case scenario for market developments in 2022.</p><p>The JTC studies market conditions to inform Opec+ ministerial meetings. The Opec+ group <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2356463">meets on 3 August</a>, where officials will try to pave a path for September output policy now it has fully unwound the production cuts it implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic. </p><p>Some delegates said Opec+ could choose to keep output steady, because of production capacity limits. Some large international consumers, notably the US, have repeatedly called for higher Opec+ production to alleviate the effects of sanctions against Russia. </p><p class="bylines">By Ruxandra Iordache</p></article>
