Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
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Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Methanol and ammonia feasible as bunker fuels: Report
Methanol and ammonia feasible as bunker fuels: Report
Sao Paulo, 20 August (Argus) — Methanol and ammonia continue to gain traction in the marine fuels sector, while the former has proven to significantly reduce the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the latter has proven viable for installation, a new report by non-profit Global Maritime Forum (GMF) said. Both fuels are alternatives for ship operators to comply with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulations, such as the FuelEU Maritime and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Net Zero Framework, because they can become zero-emission fuels if converted into e-fuels by using hydrogen, the report highlighted. Methanol The next step for methanol development is expanding the supply chain with new bunkering points in ports around the world, because it is currently insufficient for most global shipping routes, GMF said. More than 60 methanol-capable vessels are in operation this year, with 300 more on order and bunkering available at around 20 ports. The methanol market needs an increase in the availability of green methanol for producers, because its feedstock is scarce in the bunkering sector and new ships are already being built. In the first half of 2025, 40 new methanol-fueled vessels were ordered , Norway-based classification agency DNV said. GMF said that when availability improves, conventional-powered vessels could retrofit to methanol at low costs, since the engines are easily adapted to the green fuel. Ammonia The next steps for ammonia are to confirm its safety for bunkering operations and to build a fleet of ammonia-fueled ships. The fuel needs to be supplied on a commercial scale for bunkering in key ports, the report said. Blue ammonia, made from nitrogen and 'blue' hydrogen derived from natural gas, may play a bigger role in bunkering than green ammonia because of lower costs and greater availability before 2030. But uncertainties about the IMO framework, which should be finalised in October, are causing engine manufacturers to hold their ammonia dual-fuel engine design. Only three ammonia-fueled vessels were ordered in the first half of 2025, DNV said. By Natália Coelho and Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Itochu signs deal for Egypt ammonia bunkering
Japan’s Itochu signs deal for Egypt ammonia bunkering
Mumbai, 20 August (Argus) — Japanese trading house Itochu has signed an agreement to develop ammonia bunkering hubs in Egypt, marking its latest move to become a key supplier of ammonia to the shipping sector. Itochu struck a deal with Cairo-based Orascom Construction to design, develop and operate integrated facilities for supplying ships with ammonia as marine fuel, according to the Suez Canal Economic Zone authority. The hubs will be located at the zone's ports of Ain Sokhna and East Port Said. The agreement follows a series of recent steps by Itochu to expand its ammonia bunkering footprint. On 19 August, the firm signed a deal with Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol) to demonstrate ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering in Singapore using a dedicated bunkering vessel and dual-fuel Capesize bulkers. Trials are planned for the second half of 2027. Mol said it intends to co-own three ammonia dual-fuel Capesize bulkers with Belgium-based oil tanker firm CMB.Tech, with delivery scheduled for 2026–27 from Chinese shipbuilder Qingdao Beihai. Itochu has also recently signed a deal to co-develop a 300,000 t/yr renewable ammonia project in India with engineering firm L&T, aiming to export the output to Singapore for bunkering operations. The company previously said it plans to commercialise ammonia bunkering in Singapore first before expanding to Spain, Egypt and Japan. Itochu had initially aimed to begin trials in Singapore in 2026, but postponed the timeline, citing expectations of significant demand growth only after 2028. Other Japanese firms and government bodies also discussed ammonia and hydrogen prospects with Egyptian partners during an investment forum this week. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government signed a deal with the Suez Canal Economic Zone authority to co-operate on green hydrogen for ship bunkering, focusing on knowledge exchange, demand stimulation and promotion of clean energy applications. Japanese trading firm Sumitomo took part in discussions on renewable hydrogen production for export, ship bunkering, green steel and potential involvement in infrastructure such as desalination and "hydrogen service corridors", according to the Suez Canal Economic Zone authority. Many developers have announced plans to produce renewable hydrogen and derivatives in the economic zone, including for maritime use. But public updates have been limited and most initiatives remain in early development stages. By Akansha Victor Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Exxon warning muddles US blue H2 perspective
Exxon warning muddles US blue H2 perspective
Houston, 8 August (Argus) — A mixed picture of the industry's perspective for US blue hydrogen is taking shape, as ExxonMobil warns that its plans for the world's biggest low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia plant on the Texas Gulf coast are in limbo while other companies express optimism in the market's long-term trajectory and federal production tax credits. ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods recently expressed concern that the early expiry of the 45V tax credits could prevent the development of a US market for low-carbon hydrogen and derivatives. There is "a strong possibility" that a final investment decision (FID) on its project in Baytown, Texas, may be delayed, Woods said, warning that the firm might not move forward at all if it cannot "see an eventual path to a market-driven business". The energy behemoth's dour assessment contrasts with those of executives from other companies eyeing or developing projects on the US Gulf coast who expect continued strong export demand for hydrogen and derivatives, specifically ammonia, produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). "I strongly believe that blue ammonia from the US Gulf Coast will be very competitive in Europe, and I think there is room for our project and probably a few more," industrial gas producer Air Products' chief executive Eduardo Menezes said about a site the firm is developing on Louisiana's Gulf coast . Fertilizer maker CF Industries also conveyed optimism about the prospects for its Blue Point CCS-based ammonia plant in Louisiana, for which it made a final investment decision in April with its Japanese partners Jera and Mitsui. "We remain excited about the compelling growth opportunity at Blue Point, given the … interest that has been generated in the ultra-low carbon ammonia that will be produced there," said chief operating officer Christopher Bohn. Crucially, Air Products, CF and others are targeting ammonia exports to overseas demand centers, especially in Europe and northeast Asia, and so are not dependent on the development of a domestic market. In contrast, ExxonMobil would use only a small share of its output for this purpose. The firm plans to make around 860,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of CCS-based hydrogen at Baytown, of which around 20pc would be used to make 1mn t/yr of ammonia for exports. The remainder would be used to decarbonize ExxonMobil's own operations and to supply other offtakers in the region. This makes the plans contingent on a market for low-carbon hydrogen offtake developing in the US, and the oil and gas major appears to be concerned that the early sunset date for 45V will hinder this. Additionally, some of the prospective low-carbon ammonia producers on the US Gulf coast, including CF, are eyeing the 45Q tax credits — which yield $85/t of sequestered CO2 — rather than the 45V production tax credits. "Shot clock" ticking The 45V tax credit narrowly escaped an end-of-2025 deadline that would have derailed most project plans, but was still shortened by five years to the end of 2027 in the energy and tax bill signed by President Donald Trump on 4 July. Still, while ExxonMobil's Woods expressed disappointment in the shorter timeline because of its potentially detrimental effect on the development of a hydrogen market, others noted the defined deadlines gives developers an extra incentive to stick to their previously laid out plans. "The rush to get things done has been quite encouraging," said Michael Sykes, a partner at law firm White & Case. "I've seen a number of different projects where now it's 'OK, it's time to get things going, we need to make things work because there is a shot clock.' " Indeed, shortly after Trump signed the bill, Chevron formally requested a property tax abatement from Jefferson County for the potential site of a $5bn CCS-based hydrogen and ammonia facility on the Texas Gulf coast, leading some analysts to wonder if the petition was related to recent clarity on the future of 45V. During Air Liquide's recent earnings call, an analyst asked the industrial gas producer's chief executive, Adam Peters, if he thought Chevron was an example of a company motivated by the bill's passage. Peters demurred on commenting specifically on Chevron's project but noted that Air Liquide has been watching low-carbon hydrogen developments "extremely closely over the past two years" and expects the 2.5-year construction runway to push some projects toward FID. "I think this is going to open the doorway for a number of projects to move forward in the low-carbon space to allow for the development of an ecosystem for hydrogen in the US," Peters said. "So, this is very exciting." By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Certain ferts imports to face higher US tariffs: Update
Certain ferts imports to face higher US tariffs: Update
Updates story with market reaction and impact. Houston, 1 August (Argus) — The latest round of US tariff rates will affect a large swath of fertilizer exporters to the US starting 7 August, while keeping levies for some key countries stable at 10pc. In the new tariffs released by President Donald Trump Thursday night , most fertilizer origin countries had their rates increase to 15pc from the prior 10pc imposed in April ( see table ), including Trinidad and Tobago, Nigeria, Israel and Jordan, among others. Some countries saw rates set above 15pc, like key urea supplier Algeria, which now faces a 30pc tariff. But countries not detailed in Annex I of the order will continue to face a 10pc levy, notably Arab Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. That should also maintain Russia's current tariff-exempt status. Goods that are loaded onto ships before 7 August and enter the US before 5 October will not be subject to the new tariffs, the administration said. The executive order did not outline any adjustment to product exemptions under the tariff rates, meaning fertilizers like potash (MOP, SOP and NOP) and NPKs, among others, will likely remain tariff-free . Exemptions for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant goods remain in place for both countries, consistent with negotiated deals from early April. The exemptions include most fertilizers such as nitrogen and potash, as well as related products. Sulfur, sulfuric acid and ammonia are also considered USMCA compliant, though some uncertainty remains related to whether phosphates produced in Mexico are exempt because of the origin of the products' inputs. Tariffs on non-USMCA compliant Mexican goods were unchanged at 25pc following a 90-day extension on 31 July and levies on imports from Canada that are not USMCA compliant rose to 35pc on 1 August. New tariffs met with limited price response Market reactions to the tariff announcement this week have been subdued so far, and the tariffs' impact will largely be relegated to nitrogen and phosphate markets. New Orleans (Nola) urea barges traded sideways the morning after the executive order was issued as liquidity picked up in the market. At least 15,000st September delivering barges at Nola traded from $460-462/st fob. An August barge changed hands at $458/st fob, in line with Argus' daily urea assessment on 31 July. Meanwhile, a September DAP barge traded at $805/st fob Nola Friday, equal to September barges earlier in the week. Most nitrogen exporters issued higher tariffs were already choosing not to ship product to the US because of the 10pc tariff imposed in April and tightness in global markets. Still, one exception is Trinidad & Tobago, which has continued to ship UAN and ammonia to the US. The 5pc increase in the island nation's rate could cause sellers to divert more supplies away from the US. For phosphate, nearly all offshore suppliers issued a tariff in early April chose to deter product from US shores, causing severe supply tightness in the domestic market. Aside from minimal TSP shipments from Israel, major DAP and MAP global producers have chosen to send product elsewhere and see the tariff uncertainty as too sensitive to tangle with. Nitrogen imports consumed for the fall application season will likely be unaffected by the additional levies because of the grace period for goods entering the US before 7 October. The new tariffs will become more meaningful if they remain in place leading up to the spring season. Fertilizer imports ramp up through the winter and into spring, requiring distributors to pull on volumes from a wider array of countries, including several now facing higher levies. US fertilizer-related import duties for 7 August % Country Product(s) Affected Negotiated rate Share of US imports, Jul 24-May 25 Algeria 30 Urea 9 Australia 10 DAP 7 MAP 2 Bahrain 10 Urea 1 Brunei 35 Urea 1 Egypt 10 DAP 17 TSP 16 European Union 15 AMS 48 Urea 3 DAP 2 MAP 3 Sulfuric Acid 18 Indonesia 19 NH3 2 Israel 15 TSP 57 Japan 15 Sulfuric Acid 5 Jordan 15 DAP 6 Lebanon 10 TSP 17 Malaysia 25 Urea 3 Mexico 25 DAP 5 MAP 23 Sulfuric Acid 25 Nigeria 15 Urea 8 Oman 10 Urea 1 Qatar 10 Urea 21 Saudi Arabia 10 Urea 9 DAP 61 MAP 35 South Africa 30 MAP 3 South Korea 15 AMS 5 MAP 3 Trinidad & Tobago 15 Urea 3 UAN 30 Tunisia 25 DAP 2 TSP 3 Turkmenistan 10 Urea 1 — US Trade Representative, US Census Bureau Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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