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Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem
Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem
Deepening divisions between developed and developing countries promise to make Cop 30 an arduous summit, writes Rhys Talbot Paris, 27 June (Argus) — Progress in technical discussions at the UN climate conference in Bonn, Germany, still leaves much work for the incoming Brazilian presidency ahead of November's Cop 30 summit in Belem if it is to deliver a strong outcome on emission cuts. After a rocky start in Bonn this month, with a two-day fight over the agenda, negotiators delivered texts across a number of areas relating to emission reductions. The Brazilian Cop takes place 10 years after the Paris agreement, in which states agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C, and two years after Cop 28 in Dubai, when they undertook the global stocktake (GST) to measure progress on reaching Paris goals and pledged to phase out fossil fuels. The annual Bonn talks are intended to allow negotiators to prepare the ground for political decisions to be made at Cop. But this year, even those discussions that have advanced well have tended to produce large texts with many mutually exclusive options in brackets, reflecting incompatible positions that will have to be worked out by policy makers between now and the end of the Belem Cop. The main arena for considering fossil fuels, a discussion of the meaning of the GST, has left a heavily divided text to Belem. Developed countries have argued for a longer, more extensive process, while some parties — including China, India and Saudi Arabia — have tried to limit the scope, duration and outputs of the sessions. And the texts do not directly address the elephant in the room — countries are this year delivering their nationally determined contribution (NDC) documents laying out their plans to cut emissions. Those plans are likely to be insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. And the Brazilian presidency will have to grasp the initiative to find a way to ensure advances on the Paris and Dubai goals. The leader's summit to be held immediately before Cop could offer a chance for movement. The release of a keenly awaited synthesis report of NDCs on 24 October could offer a spur to this summit. "People will want a reaction from our leaders" when the report comes out, Cop 30 executive director Ana Toni said. But Brazil rejects the idea of a cover decision at the end of Belem as a home for discussion of fossil fuels. And the presidency has been reluctant to attack fossil fuels head on. "This is not an item of negotiation, the GST is," Toni said. Brazil must wrangle a fractious conference including major fossil fuel producers such as India, Saudi Arabia and Russia which resist any action on the topic, as well as facing criticism over its own plans to increase oil and gas production . Climate finance fight Climate finance permeated the Bonn talks, with developing countries trying to steer various work programmes towards the issue, while developed countries attempted to limit discussion. Developing countries said the finance settlement reached last year at Baku does not meet developed countries' obligations under the Paris agreement, as well as being far short of actual needs. And in parallel, they expressed their frustration with carbon border adjust mechanism (CBAM)-type arrangements planned for the EU and UK, and projected for Canada. Developed countries see these as essential to protecting their domestic industry and preventing carbon leakage, given their high carbon costs, but developing countries say the costs will fall mostly on them. These two issues appear likely to crop up again as stumbling blocks at Belem that the presidency will have to tackle with political engagement beforehand. Brazil has promoted Cop 30 as an "implementation" Cop, with no one particular agenda item dominating. This gives the country the arduous task of having to make concrete progress on many items, rather than focus on one headline target. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ofgem extends UK fuel mix disclosure deadline: Sources
Ofgem extends UK fuel mix disclosure deadline: Sources
London, 27 June (Argus) — UK energy regulator Ofgem has extended its annual fuel mix disclosure (FMD) deadline for electricity suppliers to 22 July from the previous 1 July, owing to ongoing technological issues with its new Renewable Electricity Register, according to renewable energy guarantees of origin (Rego) market participants citing letters they received from Ofgem. UK suppliers typically must disclose by 1 July each year the mix of fuels they have used to generate the electricity they provide to customers during the compliance period — which runs from April to March. Regos prove that the electricity came from renewable energy sources and suppliers must hold this evidence in their accounts by the deadline. Ofgem launched a new electronic registry in May, but ongoing technological issues have prevented some counterparties from receiving their Regos in time to meet the deadline, market participants said. Thus, Ofgem pushed the deadline back to 22 July. Ofgem has been contacted for comment but has not yet confirmed this decision. Non-biomass Regos from the previous compliance period (CP23), which can be redeemed until the FMD deadline, have climbed by £0.40/MWh in the past two weeks, according to Argus assessments, with demand having kept steady at a time when most volumes have already found buyers. Argus last assessed the contract at £0.50/MWh on 26 June. By Giulio Bajona Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU 2040 climate target not a must before Cop 30: Macron
EU 2040 climate target not a must before Cop 30: Macron
Brussels, 27 June (Argus) — Setting an EU target to cut net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040 is not a must for participating in the UN Cop 30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil, in November, French president Emmanuel Macron said. Speaking after an EU leaders meeting in Brussels, Macron positioned 2040 targets as conditional on the protection of sensitive EU industrial sectors and greater technological neutrality, notably through the inclusion of nuclear alongside renewables. Macron noted "so many" countries backtracking on their climate goals. He called for protective EU trade policy, especially for emissions-intensive products such as steel. "Otherwise, we'll face the same debates as today with Mercosur," he said, referring to opposition to the free trade agreement with South American countries, also driven by environmental and climate concerns. "For Belem, what's expected of us are national trajectories for 2035. That's it. We'll do it," Macron said. "I support having 2040 goals. But if we want 2040 goals, we need the means to achieve them and ensure they align with our competitiveness," he said, also pushing for greater technological neutrality allowing for renewables as well as nuclear. Macron is also relaxed about the timeline for a 2040 climate goal. "Great if we have it. But that's not what's expected of us for Belem, the upcoming Cop. It's the NDCs [nationally determined contributions] for 2035. It's not about having European goals for 2040," said Macron. Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever said everyone supports the climate goals. But he pointed to divisions over strategy and the role of new technologies. "As soon as we have competitive models, progress will be very fast, so it could be possible to achieve a hockey stick trajectory toward climate neutrality," De Wever said. Czech prime minister Petr Fiala said he would not sign up to additional climate targets for 2040 that the European Commission is expected to present on 2 July . "The Czech Republic does not agree with this," Fiala said. Prague recently joined 17 other countries backing a non-paper on adjustments to the bloc's new emissions trading system for road transport and heating fuels. "I would prefer we postponed these emission allowances or did not adopt them at all, but at the moment there is no majority for that in Europe," said Fiala. Earlier in June, the commission's climate director-general Kurt Vandenberghe suggested greater flexibility in the 2040 goal. He said the 90pc GHG reduction target will " hopefully " be agreed with the "necessary flexibilities". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EQT to ‘limit’ hedged volumes to 50pc of its gas
EQT to ‘limit’ hedged volumes to 50pc of its gas
New York, 25 June (Argus) — US natural gas producer EQT only plans to use financial derivatives to lock in prices for half of its output at the most in the coming years, a break from years' past when it was hedging the vast majority of its volumes. The second-largest US gas producer by volume would need to have "conviction" on its outlook for US gas prices in order for it to hedge a full 50pc of its volumes, EQT chief executive Toby Rice told Argus in an interview Wednesday in New York City. "I think that would be a limit," Rice said. EQT remains entirely unhedged for 2026, he said. Without a clear sense of the trajectory of the US gas market — a famously volatile market which has only become more volatile in recent years — EQT believes erring on the side of maximum exposure to spot prices will lead to higher average revenue. EQT made $68mn on its derivatives contracts in 2024 and $1.8bn in 2023, according to federal regulatory filings. This was after losing $4.6bn on derivatives in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, sending US gas prices near $10/mmBtu, heights from which EQT was partly locked out because of its hedges. EQT's unhedged strategy is a departure from when Rice was appointed chief executive in 2019 in a bid by activist investors to overhaul the company's board of directors and change its strategy. At that time, EQT was hedging up to 80pc of volumes, largely due to its higher cost structure, Rice said. But now, with EQT able to break even with US gas prices as low as $2.45/mmBtu — excluding its interest payments on its debt — hedging has become an "entirely opportunistic" tool for EQT, rather than a defensive necessity, he said. The prompt-month settlement price for Nymex gas at the US benchmark Henry Hub so far this month has averaged $3.67/mmBtu. EQT is also able to hedge less of its gas because it has increased the amount of gas it can move to consumers outside its core operating area in Appalachia. EQT sells more than 4.6 Bcf/d directly to end users, including power companies and utilities, local distribution companies and LNG export terminals, according to a confidential investor slide obtained by Argus . Of that, 3 Bcf/d goes to power and utility companies including NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, Southern Company and Constellation Energy; 1 Bcf/d goes to local distribution companies including Illinois-based Peoples Energy, Washington, DC-based WGL Holdings and New Jersey Natural Gas; and 600mn cf/d goes to LNG facilities including Venture Global, Sabine Pass, Cameron LNG and Berkshire Hathaway's Cove Point LNG. Moving gas from Appalachia to population centers elsewhere in the country, where gas prices are higher, has historically been a challenge for Appalachian producers because of opposition from state regulatory agencies to the construction of new interstate pipelines. EQT has been able to overcome this challenge in part by signing long-term supply agreements with southeast utilities Duke and Southern for 1.2 Bcf/d of gas, which will be shipped on EQT's Mountain Valley Pipeline, as Argus reported earlier this month. Gas buyers have become more interested in signing long-term supply deals with EQT as heightened volatility in the US gas market has increasingly lured in commodity traders who act as middlemen, Rice said. Switzerland-based commodity trader Glencore and New York-based quantitative trading firm Jane Street, among others, have been building up a US gas trading presence over the past year. IRA rollback could boost gas demand Rice also sees bright spots for gas amid an effort by Republicans in the US Congress to use a filibuster-proof budget bill to phase out clean energy tax credits from former president Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. If Republicans get their way, this could slow the growth of US renewable energy generation, "easily" boosting US gas demand by 1.5-2 Bcf/d by 2030 as gas takes market share from what would have otherwise been occupied by renewables, Rice said. "If solar and wind investments decrease, that [energy] demand's not going away," Rice said. EQT also expects planned data centers running artificial intelligence software to increase US gas demand by 4-6 Bcf/d over the period, he said. EQT is in discussions with "roughly a dozen proposed power projects" in Appalachia on an expected surge in US power demand, only about 40pc of which stems from planned data centers, Rice said. Rice still expects to announce a gas supply agreement involving one of these projects by the end of the year. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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