Fertilizers
Overview
The fertilizer industry has seen dramatic changes in market dynamics, with challenges posed by policy and regulatory changes, political instability, conflicts and new macroeconomic realities. The drive towards energy transition and ambitious zero-carbon goals has also opened up the industry to new entrants and new opportunities.
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Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India
Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India
London, 8 May (Argus) — Saudi Arabian phosphates producer Ma'aden has sold around 55,000t combined of DAP to two Indian importers at $720/t cfr for loading on one vessel in May. Argus understands that the buyers are Indorama and Chambal. The price is broadly in line with the sale of 45,000t of Jordanian DAP to Hindalco at $719.50/t cfr , and nets back to $708-709/t fob Ras al-Khair. It is up by $20/t from Ma'aden's last sales to India earlier this week . By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia
IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia
New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
High sulphur prices pressure Indonesian buyers
High sulphur prices pressure Indonesian buyers
Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — Steep increases in sulphur prices, against expectations of lower future nickel demand, and falling nickel prices since last year are pressuring metals producers in Indonesia, and some are considering postponing new projects. Sulphur is used as a raw material in the production of nickel intermediates such as nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), through the rotary kiln-electric furnace (RKEF) and high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) processes, respectively. Producing 1t of MHP or nickel matte requires an estimated 10t and 15t of sulphur, respectively. Global sulphur prices began to rise in mid-2024 on firmer demand from Morocco and Indonesia. Morocco's OCP started up two sulphur burners last year that will consume 967,000 t/yr of sulphur at capacity. In Indonesia, newly commissioned HPAL production lines at QMB New Energy Materials and Halmahera Persada Lygend also added an estimated 830,000 t/yr of sulphur demand. Uncertainty over Kazakh and Russian sulphur export availability because of EU sanctions also created uncertainty over available supply in the region. Tighter supply, compounded by competing Chinese and Indonesian demand after the Lunar New Year holidays, spurred a rally in sulphur prices in the first quarter of the year. Fob Middle East sulphur prices more than tripled to $285.5/t fob as of 1 May from $86/t a year earlier, Argus assessments show. Cfr Indonesia granular sulphur prices rose by $185/t to $297/t cfr over the same period. While sulphur prices have risen significantly over the past year, prices for Indonesian-origin nickel intermediates have been largely rangebound at $12,000-14,000/t of nickel contained since January 2024. The comparatively flat nickel prices and the rising raw material prices mean that producers' margins are narrowing further. Gross profit margins for MHP products were close to $10,000/t in 2023 before falling to around $7,000/t in 2024, according to Argus estimates. Current sulphur prices take up around 40pc of the total production cost of nickel matte, the largest portion out of other raw materials such as caustic soda, according to one metals producer. And the increased adoption of non-nickel containing battery chemistries such as lithium-iron-phosphate and higher demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have led the industry to revise its expectation of future nickel demand from the battery section. The International Nickel Study Group has forecast a nickel market surplus of 198,000t for 2025 , rising from 179,000t in 2024. But new ternary precursor cathode active materials projects will support a rise in nickel usage in the medium term, the group said. As higher raw material prices continue to chip away at producer margins, upcoming projects including QMB New Energy Materials' phase 3 in Morowali, and developments by Guangqing and Blue Sparkling Energy in Weda Bay may have to be postponed, market participants said. The three projects are expected on line this year, adding 844,000 t/yr of sulphur demand at capacity. By Chi Hin Ling, Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's Hindalco buys Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr
India's Hindalco buys Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr
London, 7 May (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer Hindalco has bought 45,000t of Jordanian DAP at $719.50/t cfr from a trading firm. The cargo will ship from Aqaba in early June, destined for India's west coast. The price is almost $20/t higher than Saudi Arabian producer Ma'aden's sale of 50,000t of DAP each to Indian importers Indian Potash (IPL) and Coromandel (CIL), reported earlier this week . There are no days of credit included in the concluded price. The trading firm probably bought the cargo at around $696/t fob for loading at the end of this month. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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Argus DEF Forum North America
Argus DEF Forum North America
Argus Fertilizer Europe Conference
Argus Fertilizer Europe Conference
Argus Fertilizer China Conference
Argus Fertilizer China Conference
