Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Brazil antidumping duties to disrupt PE markets
Brazil antidumping duties to disrupt PE markets
Houston, 28 August (Argus) — Brazilian trade regulators' decision to impose provisional antidumping duties on polyethylene (PE) resin imports from the US and Canada is expected to disrupt trade flows throughout the Americas. The new duties issued by foreign trade council Gecex/Camex, set at $199.04/t for US-origin resin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin, will be effective immediately and valid for up to six months. The duties are part of a broader shift in Brazil's trade policy, which raised overall polymer import taxes from 12.6pc to 20pc in October 2024. Decom will conclude the full antidumping investigation by 2 February 2026. A global trader active in the Brazilian market said on Thursday that they are already reassessing all delayed orders, pending shipments, and goods in transit to determine how to proceed with clients. Many of those clients have expressed concerns the measure is a strategy to improve Braskem's short-term financials, especially as creditor banks holding the company's shares as collateral are expected to take over the task of selling the company. This follows unsuccessful negotiations with Brazilian investor Nelson Tanure who had sought to acquire Braskem. In contrast, an executive at a Brazilian plastic resin converting company said the decision is good news, as it helps level the playing field with competitors in the Manaus Free Trade Zone, who largely import from the US under tax-free conditions, unlike buyers in the rest of Brazil. But there could be a side effect, the executive said, of manufacturers in Manaus turning to Asian suppliers, which may drive up prices for those imports as well. The executive said he is watching to see what Braskem's new pricing levels for September will be. With the antidumping duties in place, analysts expect a short-term drop in prices as exporters seek alternative destinations for resin traditionally sent to Brazil. Analysts expect Braskem to be the primary beneficiary for the measures, having faced ongoing losses, reduced operating rates, and workforce cuts. US-Brazil trade death blow? US traders are concerned with the new duties, with one trader saying it "will probably kill the economics" of trade between the US and Brazil. "It's just one more thing gone wrong," the trader said. "It will be a huge pain, short term." Another US trader said it expects some orders to be cancelled. Ultimately, traders said it is likely that more material will be sent from the US to surrounding countries, such as Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. But it is unlikely that those countries will be able to absorb all of the resin that had been moving to Brazil. "It's not good," said one North American producer of the new duties. "Brazil will not be the way to go [with exports]. We will need to move to other regions." Another producer agreed, saying the news "is not helpful," but that the full impact will not be known until Braskem announces its new price position. "This was initiated by Braskem, and they want to get their prices up," the producer said. "Where is the balance between Braskem getting their prices up and producers in North America absorbing some amount of [the anti-dumping duty]? That's obviously unknown at this point." The impact will likely be different from product-to-product and producer-to-producer. Brazilian buyers who are purchasing resin that is highly specialized and not easily replaced by another supplier, are likely to see their prices rise significantly. But buyers purchasing more commodity-type resin will have other supply alternatives and may not see as much of an impact. Trade flow changes likely The move is likely to result in some trade flow shifts. In some cases, US producers who have assets in other regions can shift volume from one region to another. For instance, a company like ExxonMobil, which has assets in Saudi Arabia and the US, could shift volume from Saudi Arabia to Brazil and move US material that would normally have gone to Brazil to other regions to fill in gaps traditionally sourced out of Saudi Arabia. Dow, which has assets in Argentina, is likely to supply more into Brazil from those assets, sources said. "Trade patterns will adjust," said a US trader. The antidumping measures could boost Braskem's pre-tax earnings by $150mn-$250mn, representing a 10-15pc increase, according to a July report by Brazilian bank BTG Pactual. If combined with the approval of legislation that restores tax incentives to the petrochemical sector, the company's earnings could rise by up to 45pc in 2026. Despite the potential upside, BTG maintains a neutral recommendation for Braskem shares, citing pressured spreads, high leverage, and unresolved environmental liabilities. By Fred Fernandes and Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Brazil imposes PE duties on US, Canada
Sao Paulo, 28 August (Argus) — Brazil's foreign trade council, Gecex/Camex has confirmed provisional antidumping duties on polyethylene (PE) resin imports from the US and Canada effective immediately and valid for up to six months. Gecex/Camex set the duties at $199.04/t for US-origin resin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin. These rates reflect the dumping margins identified by Decom, with a 10pc reduction applied. The decision follows a recommendation by the Department of Trade Defense (Decom), which found evidence of material injury to Brazil's domestic industry caused by US and Canadian PE imports. The investigation began on 31 July 2024, following a petition from petrochemical producer Braskem, Brazil's sole PE producer. Decom concluded that dumped imports continued to enter the market, posing further injury to the domestic industry. Brazil imported 706,000t of PE from January-June 2025, a 9.9pc decline compared to the same period in 2024. The US was the leading supplier, accounting for 488,800t, followed by Argentina, Canada, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Despite the looming tariffs, US shipments remained strong in the weeks leading up to the decision, as buyers who had delayed orders returned to the market. Prices for PE in Brazil had not reacted to the recommendation as of 22 August. Argus reported a sharp increase in LDPE prices for Brazil and the west coast of South America (WCSA) during that week. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU details zero-tariff offer for US products
EU details zero-tariff offer for US products
Brussels, 28 August (Argus) — The European Commission today released proposals to grant zero tariffs for certain US products. The offer is in response to the US' ceiling of 15pc applied to all EU exports and will have to be approved by the European Parliament and EU states. The EU is offering to apply 0pc tariffs to fertilisers, plastics, machinery, cars and car parts, wood and pulp of wood products, paper and paperboard, ceramics and leather, and for certain seafood and certain non-sensitive agricultural products. In general, the tariff reductions are implemented via product-specific tariff rate quotas (TRQs), including a TRQ of 25,000t for pig meat and 400,000t for crude soya-bean oil. The commission confirmed again that the proposals do not include "sensitive" agricultural products such as beef, poultry or ethanol. But the EU's offer does list mineral fuels, mineral oils, bituminous and inorganic and organic chemicals. It has also offered to remove import tariffs on US-origin polyethylene (PE). A senior EU official said it is important for the EU to move away from dependency on Russian fertilisers. The move is "very commonsensical" and ensures that farmers have access to affordable fertilisers. Another senior official noted that the EU plastics sector is under pressure, but US imports do not come from a low-cost economy. A safeguard provision also allows the EU to suspend imports. Once approved by the EU parliament and EU states, the commission expects that the US would implement an agreed 15pc tariff ceiling for EU cars and car parts, in line with the EU-US joint statement , retroactively from 1 August. by Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Is this progress?
Is this progress?
A legally binding UN treaty on plastic pollution remains elusive after the sixth round of negotiations, and the path forward is unclear London, 22 August (Argus) — Familiar underlying issues prevented an agreement from being reached at the sixth round of UN negotiations to create a legally-binding treaty on plastic pollution, and now there is uncertainty about the next steps in the process, Pamela Chasek, executive editor of the Earth Negotiations Bulletin produced by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), told Argus. The sixth round of discussions — known as Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) 5.2 — was already an unscheduled extension of the negotiating process, which was supposed to be completed at INC 5.1 in December last year. No date has yet been set for a resumption, and Chasek noted that "there is no clear path forward" to setting one. "[The INC] could bring it back to the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) Bureau and ask for an extension… or they may need a new mandate", she said, "the mandate was extended for this meeting… the UNEA Bureau can agree to extend the mandate again… or say, at this point, this needs to go back to the full assembly, which meets at the beginning of December". Upstream measures absent On the second-last day of negotiations, the INC chair circulated a draft text for consideration by delegates, followed by a revised version the following day. Neither proved particularly popular, with Chasek noting "a lot of people felt that the Chair's text did not reflect any of the negotiations that had been going on during the first week and after the release of the first draft text". Notable in its absence from either draft text was any reference to controls on plastic production, which was present as an option in the chair's text following INC 5.1. Whether such upstream measures should be included in the scope of the treaty has been an ongoing point of contention throughout negotiations. Upstream measures were supported by the EU, along with a so-called "high ambition coalition" of over 100 countries, but opposed by others including a number of oil- and plastic-producing countries. Their omission from the draft text may have reflected the chair's view that there was little chance of consensus being reached if they were included, Chasek said. She noted that other environmental treaties have taken an approach of facilitating a weaker agreement that can then be amended and strengthened at a future point, and said that this may have been the chair's intention. But attempts to include a provision for amendments to be adopted based on a 75pc voting majority "if all efforts at consensus have been exhausted" may also have proved a sticking point, preventing some delegations from backing the text. India — which has opposed upstream measures — called for mandatory consensus on amendments to the document and annexes. US opposes unilateral approach The US had appeared open to production limits ahead of INC 5.1, during the final months of the Biden administration. But a release from the State Department following INC 5.2 expressed opposition to "prescriptive top-down regulatory approaches that will stifle innovation and drive consumer inflation across the US economy and all over the world". The State Department said the US supports "an agreement that allows countries to use tailored and cost-effective solutions that will work best in their country". Reduced support for environmental regulation is in keeping with the approach of the Trump administration, which has — among other things — on climate change. But it is unclear how much effect US rejection of unilateral measures in plastic treaty negotiations will have on the final outcome, given that other countries remained opposed to upstream measures throughout, Chasek said. Can an agreement be reached? The scope of the treaty is not the only sticking point in negotiations after INC 5.2. The issue of finance was also discussed at length, and delegates are even yet to agree on the definition of plastic waste, which was another omission from the draft text proposals. Following negotiations, French ecology minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher expressed frustration. And Plastics Europe managing director Virginia Janssens, while applauding the "political will to continue negotiations", said that "we hear and share society's concerns and are disappointed by the inability to agree on a legally binding global agreement on plastics pollution in Geneva". Chasek's view is that attempting to finalise a treaty within five sessions was always likely to be challenging. "Too many countries had very different visions for this agreement. Some didn't want it at all and some wanted a really strong agreement to deal with the full life cycle of plastic", she said. If a path to continue negotiations can be found, then an agreement is still possible. But a strong treaty stretching from production of plastic all the way down to waste management looks less likely with every deadlocked session. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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