Trump says US will soon set new tariff rates

Market: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas
16/05/25

The US will unilaterally set new tariff rates on imports from select trading partners instead of holding negotiations over import tax levels, President Donald Trump said today.

In the next 2-3 weeks "we'll be telling people what they will be paying to do business in the US," Trump told a group of US and UAE business executives in Abu Dhabi today. Trump contended that more than 150 US trading partners have expressed interest in negotiating with his administration, adding that "you're not able to see that many countries."

Trump's administration since 5 April imposed a 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every US trading partner — with the notable exception of Canada, Mexico and Russia. Trump paused his so-called "reciprocal tariffs" until 8 July, nominally to give his administration time to negotiate with foreign countries subject to those punitive rates. The reciprocal tariffs would have added another 10pc on top of his baseline tariff for imports from the EU, while the cumulative rate would have been as high as 69pc on imports from Vietnam.

Trump in April suggested that 200 deals with foreign trade partners were in the works. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said the US is only negotiating with the top 18 trading partners.

The trade "deals" clinched by the Trump administration so far merely set out terms of negotiations for agreements to be negotiated at a later date.

The US-UK preliminary deal would keep the US tariff rate on imports from the UK at 10pc, while providing a quota for UK-manufactured cars and, possibly, for steel and aluminum. The US-UK document, concluded on 9 May, explicitly states that it "does not constitute a legally binding agreement."

The US-China understanding, reached on 12 May, went further by rolling back some of the punitive tariff rates but left larger trade issues to be resolved at a later date.

The Trump administration would keep in place a 20pc extra tariff imposed on imports from China in February-March and a 10pc baseline reciprocal tariff imposed in April. The US will pause its additional 24pc reciprocal tariff on imports from China until 10 August.

Conversely, China will keep in place tariffs of 10-15pc on US energy commodity imports that it imposed on 4 February, and 10-15pc tariffs on US agricultural imports, imposed in March. It will maintain a 10pc tariff on all imports from the US that was imposed in April, but will pause an additional 24pc tariff on all US imports until 10 August.

These rates are on top of baseline import tariffs that the US and China were charging before January 2025.

By Haik Gugarats

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31/05/25

Opec+ eight agree 411,000 b/d hike for July: Update

Adds details throughout London, 31 May (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have agreed to a third consecutive month of accelerated output hikes, the Opec secretariat said today. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will raise their collective crude production target by another 411,000 b/d in July, matching the increases agreed for May and June. This pace is three times faster than the group's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. The eight's combined production target will rise to 31.79mn b/d in July, from 31.38mn b/d in June and 30.96mn b/d in May. These figures exclude additional pledges to cut output by members that have exceeded their targets. The group of eight produced 30.71mn b/d in April, according to Argus estimates. The decision means they will have restored around 55pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just four months. The announcement comes against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, driven by US president Donald Trump's trade tariff policies, which have contributed to a $10/bl drop in Ice Brent crude futures since early April. But the eight countries cited a "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as the basis for their decision. Delegates told Argus the accelerated pace also reflects frustration with overproducing members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq — the former still producing above target, and the latter falling short of pledges to compensate. At least two members pushed to pause the unwinding process, a source said, citing budgetary pressure from subdued oil prices. Another factor supporting the faster increase may be lower expectations for non-Opec+ supply growth this year and next, particularly in the US, where falling prices have curbed drilling activity. The actual increase in Opec+ production may fall short of the headline figure, given that some members are already producing above their targets and almost all of the eight have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. Th group noted that the faster pace would help facilitate this compensation. The group is scheduled to meet again on 6 July to decide on August production levels. By Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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ExxonMobil upbeat over Guyana arbitration

31/05/25

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31/05/25

ExxonMobil upbeat over Guyana arbitration

New York, 31 May (Argus) — ExxonMobil is confident of prevailing in an international arbitration case over a share of Guyana's vast offshore oil riches that has pitted the top US major against smaller rival Chevron. "We are confident the judges will go in our favour," senior vice-president Neil Chapman said as the private hearing wrapped up in London last week. The three-person arbitration panel at the International Chamber of Commerce is expected to give its ruling within two to three months in relation to the contractual dispute that has held up Chevron's pending $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess. Speaking at the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in New York last week, Chapman said such contractual disputes are not uncommon in the oil industry, but they are normally resolved in private. ExxonMobil is the operator with a 45pc stake in the Stabroek block off the coast of Guyana, where an estimated 11bn bl of oil equivalent have been discovered over the past decade. Both it and Chinese state-controlled CNOOC, which has a 25pc holding, have asserted a right of first refusal over the 30pc interest owned by Hess. That stake is the key attraction in Chevron's planned takeover of Hess, which will address concerns over the company's long-term growth prospects and help narrow a gap with ExxonMobil. The case is also being closely watched by oil and gas lawyers and could have a bearing on how future contracts are drawn up. Hess and Chevron have argued that a right of first refusal does not apply in the event of a corporate takeover. The arbitration has delayed the takeover, which has already won approval from US anti-trust regulator the Federal Trade Commission as well as Hess shareholders. ExxonMobil's Chapman played down concerns about whether relations with the other parties would suffer as a result of the long-running squabble. Hess has been a "very good partner" in Guyana and "in terms of operations, in terms of investments, we're 100pc aligned", he said. Fight for your right ExxonMobil argues that little would change if Hess ended up winning the arbitration case and Chevron went on to complete its acquisition. "We believe strongly you have to protect your contractual right, the Chinese believe the same thing and that's why we went to arbitration," Chapman said. "If the judges decide that's not the case, then we get a new partner," he added. Under such a scenario, it would be business as usual. "We have partnerships with Chevron all over the world. It's been no change in terms of how we're working together at all," Chapman said. Chevron has previously warned that the Hess acquisition could be derailed if the arbitration case sides with ExxonMobil.But such is Chevron's optimism that it will close the deal that the company snapped up almost 5pc of Hess shares at a discount on the open market in the first quarter. The move reflects Chevron's conviction in "our confidence in the successful arbitration outcome", chief financial officer Eimear Bonner said in March. Chevron's chief executive Mike Wirth has similarly expressed confidence in Hess' position on a number of occasions. "This has been studied extensively, and we feel like they clearly have the right side of this argument, and we look forward to closing the deal," he said earlier in the year. Hess' core argument is that such pre-emption rights do not apply because of the structure of the merger and language in the relevant clause. "Chevron and Hess believe that ExxonMobil's and CNOOC's asserted claims are without merit," Hess said in a filing in April, adding that it plans to "vigorously defend" its position before the tribunal. By Stephen Cunningham Guyana: Stabroek block Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight agree another 411,000 b/d hike for July

31/05/25

News

31/05/25

Opec+ eight agree another 411,000 b/d hike for July

London, 31 May (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have agreed to a third consecutive month of accelerated output hikes, three delegate sources told Argus . The eight — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will raise their collective crude production target by another 411,000 b/d for July, matching their decisions for May and June. This pace is three times faster than the group's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April this year and September 2026. By Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Uncertainty prevails over unbooked German gas storage

30/05/25

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30/05/25

Uncertainty prevails over unbooked German gas storage

London, 30 May (Argus) — German gas storage bookings for the current storage year have picked up in recent weeks, but large volumes of unbooked space combined with an unclear role of the state leave big question marks over the filling campaign this summer. Germany started the storage year with at least 107TWh of unbooked storage capacity, out of a technical capacity of 247TWh ( see data and download ). An inverted THE summer 2025-winter 2025-26 spread through most of the winter created no incentive to book capacity. But storage bookings have picked up in recent months, especially in May, with about 12.2TWh of storage space booked during the month, up from 5.5TWh in April and about 350GWh in March ( see bookings graph ). The THE summer 2025-winter 2025-26 spread has normalised since the beginning of April, which has re-established an incentive for traders to book storage space ( see prices graph ). In addition, the German government at the beginning of May lowered the legal 1 November fill level mandate to 80pc for most sites and 45pc for some slow-cycling aquifer sites and depleted fields. A lower stockfill mandate has contributed to the increased attractiveness of storage space, as it affords more flexibility to capacity holders. What happens with unbooked capacity? There remains at least 88.6TWh unbooked despite the uptick in bookings, and it remains unclear who would fill the space if it remains unsold. The German gas storage act stipulates that German market area manager THE can book storage space if needed to fill gas storage sites to the legal level as a last resort. The Inzenham, Wolfersberg and Frankenthal sites remain completely unbooked so far, and THE may have to book some space to hit the 1 November target, according to current legislation. THE has previously confirmed to Argus that it will only intervene at the point at which it is physically impossible for the market to fill the storage site on its own terms even if injecting at capacity. In addition, THE may treat unbooked capacity at partially booked sites separately to allocated space. Most storage contracts pass on the storage targets to each capacity holder, suggesting that targets may still be missed at partially booked sites if firms only inject to the legal minimum. Remaining unbooked capacity at sites would then also have to be filled to 80pc or 45pc to ensure compliance with the site's target. It is also unclear what injection capacity THE could make use of in the case of partially-booked sites, in order to fill unbooked space. If THE can take over all a site's injection capacity, it could start injecting considerably later than if it could only use the injection capacity proportionally allocated to the unbooked space. In the latter case, the market area manager would have to start intervening soon at some storage sites. At the 11.5TWh Breitbrunn site — a slow-cycling site with an 80pc target because of its location in Bavaria — THE might have to step in around mid-June to reach 80pc by 1 November for the 5.31TWh unbooked capacity, assuming an injection curve for the site in line with the German average as provided by Entsog. The site is currently filled to about 24pc of capacity, or 50pc of all booked capacity at the site, according to GIE transparency data. The largest source of market uncertainty remains the 44.7TWh Rehden site, where only 894GWh is booked for the current storage year. The site now makes up about 50pc of unbooked storage space in Germany, and only 2pc of the site's capacity is allocated. THE would have to start filling the site in mid-August to reach the 45pc target, taking Rehden's specific injection curve and 18.5 days of maintenance in October into account. But the German state has made a lot of noise recently that it does not want the market to rely on the state to fill storage this summer. But at the same time, THE's legal requirement to fill storage if market parties fail to do so remains intact, the market area manager confirmed to Argus recently. Possible injections profiles point to remaining risk for 3Q tightness Germany's cavern-heavy storage profile allows firms to delay a large part of storage injections far into the third quarter, especially if the market and state continue their "game of chicken" over unbooked capacity. Germany needs to inject about 77.6TWh before 1 November to hit its target for every site, with five sites already above target, which would equate to a 500 GWh/d injection rate if spread evenly over the summer. The forward curve suggests an incentive to boost injections early in the summer, but it would be technically possible to delay 70TWh of injections until after 1 August and even 32.3TWh after 1 October, taking the Entsog average injection curve for each storage site ( see theoretical injections profile graph ). In that case, it would be theoretically possible for injection demand to peak at 2.6 TWh/d at the end of October. But 53.2TWh of the overall volume would have to be injected into unbooked capacity, if all capacity holders only fill to their mandated level. Assuming that THE takes over injections for all unbooked capacity at each site and only has proportional injection capacity available, this would still result in backloaded injection demand. This would be concentrated in September and October, with THE-controlled injection demand peaking at about 900 GWh/d in late October ( see THE injections profile graph ). Market participants have already warned of potential market tightness in late summer, given Norwegian maintenance scheduled during the period and possibly higher Asian cooling demand pulling LNG away from Europe . Delayed market-based injections, or any possible THE intervention, is likely to exacerbate this situation. By Till Stehr THE summer-winter spreads €/MWh German booked storage capacity and storage bookings by month TWh Injections profile for unbooked capacities GWh/d Theoretical injections profile GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US oil output rises to record in March: EIA

30/05/25

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30/05/25

US oil output rises to record in March: EIA

Calgary, 30 May (Argus) — US crude production rose by nearly 250,000 b/d in March to a record high on gains from each of the largest producing states. Output nationwide averaged 13.49mn b/d in March, up from 13.24mn b/d in February, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Friday in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report. Production also rose from 13.17mn b/d in March 2024. Texas, home to 42pc of the country's crude production, pumped out 5.71mn b/d in March, up from 5.66mn b/d in the month prior and 5.58mn b/d a year earlier. Operators in New Mexico, which shares the prolific Permian basin with Texas, produced a record 2.26mn b/d in March, up from 2.16mn b/d in February and 2.01mn b/d in March 2024. North Dakota halted a three-month skid, producing 1.16mn b/d in March, up from 1.13mn b/d in February. But the state's production fell from 1.22mn b/d in March 2024. Offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico averaged 1.79mn b/d in March, up from 1.76mn b/d in February but down from 1.82mn b/d a year earlier. The EIA expects crude production nationwide to average 13.42mn b/d in 2025 and 13.49mn b/d in 2026, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Those forecasts are lower by 90,000 b/d and 70,000 b/d, respectively, compared to EIA's outlook in April, as global trade tensions are expected to weigh on demand. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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