The premium of front-month Ice gasoil futures against the second-month futures has widened over the past two weeks, reflecting tighter supply.
The premium of Ice June futures against the July contract settled at $9.50/t on Wednesday, 11 June. The backwardation — where prompt prices are greater than forward prices — has steepened in the past two weeks, peaking at a premium of $16/t on Tuesday, 10 June, the joint-widest in 14 months along with 11 March.
Two weeks ago, on 23 May, the premium settled at $6.50/t.
The June contract expires today, which could have contributed to the steepening backwardation as traders close their open positions, according to market participants. But the size of the premium suggests a tightening market.
A closed arbitrage from the Mideast Gulf and India since April has reduced supply to Europe, European traders have said. Only 2.97mn t of diesel and other gasoil has arrived in Europe from the Mideast Gulf and India in April and May, according to ship-tracking service Vortexa, compared with about 5.72mn t in the same period last year.
The arbitrage has been closed because of relative weakness in European prices compared with those in Singapore. The premium of front-month Ice gasoil futures against Singaporean equivalents averaged $18.65/t in May, compared with $23.81/t in May 2024.
Singaporean middle distillate stocks fell to a nine-month low in the week ending 23 April, increasing demand for imports. European diesel values fell sharply at the start of April in response to the implementation of US tariffs, largely because of dampened expectations of industrial performance, and have not recovered.
The start of the Mediterranean emissions control area (ECA) at the start of May has also placed strain on European supply of diesel and other gasoil. The ECA requires ships in the Mediterranean to use fuel with a sulphur content of 0.1pc, rather than the previous requirement of 0.5pc. Marine gasoil (MGO) fits the new requirement, as does ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO). With supply of the latter limited in Europe, the majority of shipowners have switched to MGO. Refineries have probably increased MGO production to meet this new demand, but MGO supply is still "very tight", a Mediterranean-based marine fuels trader said. Most of the gasoil used for blending in MGO is suitable for desulphurisation and use as road fuel, and so it diversion into marine fuels restricts supply of diesel.
Independently-held inventories of diesel and other gasoil at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub have dropped since the start of April. The four-week average came to about 2.1mn t on 5 June, lower on the year by 8.5pc, according to consultancy Insights Global. On 3 April the four-week average was 5.1pc higher than a year earlier.
A recovery in Rhine river water levels in recent weeks, after lows that restricted barge movement inland from ARA, contributed to the stockdraw.
