Trump discusses possible Israel attack on Iran

Market: Crude oil
12/06/25

US president Donald Trump today suggested that Israel is preparing a military strike against Iran, but added that he opposed such action as it could jeopardize his diplomatic efforts with Tehran.

An Israeli attack on Iran may not be imminent "... but it looks like it's something that could very well happen," Trump told reporters today.

Casual discussion of military conflict that would destabilize the Middle East is the latest twist in Trump's outreach to Tehran to strike a nuclear agreement outwardly very similar to one he terminated in 2018.

The Trump administration in the past two days ordered non-essential US civilian and military personnel to evacuate from Iraq and Israel. The US in the past temporarily drew down its diplomatic presence in Iraq — most recently in early 2024 — in response to risks posed by pro-Iran militias based in Iraq. Israel and Iran exchanged missile and drone strikes in 2024.

As long as the US and Iran are negotiating, "I don't want [Israel] going in because, I mean, that would blow it," Trump said. "Might help it actually but it also could blow it."

US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet on Sunday for another round of talks on the future of Tehran's nuclear program and possible relief of US sanctions. The key outstanding issue separating Washington and Tehran is Iran's ability to enrich uranium and, thus, retain a theoretical path to nuclear weapons.

"Look, it's very simple, not complicated," Trump said today. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful."

A "pretty good" nuclear deal with Iran is within reach but "it's got to be better than pretty good though", Trump said today.

As Trump's administration claimed progress in talks with Iran, US lawmakers critical of Iran, as well as Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have stepped up demands for a complete elimination of Tehran's nuclear program. Tehran insists it must retain the civilian component of its nuclear program.

UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations, a decision denounced by Tehran.

By Haik Gugarats

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30/06/25

UK's Lindsey refinery insolvent: Update

Recasts to add details on insolvency process and refinery operations throughout London, 30 June (Argus) — The future of the UK's 105,700 b/d Lindsey refinery is uncertain, after a court placed its operator under special financial measures. The government's insolvency service said three subsidiaries of UK-based Prax — Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery, Prax Storage Lindsey, and Prax Terminals Killingholme — are in a liquidation process, under which assets are sold to pay off debts. The refinery appears to be working normally. But the move has come as a surprise to the oil markets and to the UK government. The government said the news was "deeply concerning", and said there were "longstanding issues with this company", without specifying what these are beyond it being loss making. The government said it wanted "an immediate investigation into the conduct of the directors, and the circumstances surrounding this insolvency." Lindsey refinery customers and suppliers have been instructed to contact appointed administrators at FTI Consulting, which declined an Argus request to comment further. It is unclear if the refinery has entered the administration process voluntarily, or if it has been forced in by a creditor. Prax had been engaged in an expansion of its refining activity, agreeing to buy Shell out of Germany's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery, but that deal collapsed late in 2024. Prax also has upstream and retail assets, which appear not to be included in the liquidation process. If the Lindsey refinery closes the UK would have lost just under a quarter of its total refining capacity since the start of this year. Labour unions Unite and GMB called on the government to safeguard refinery operations and fuel supplies. The UK energy ministry said today the "government will ensure supplies are maintained, protect our energy security and do everything we can to support workers". The Lindsey refinery supplies London Heathrow, and manages a pipeline between the refinery and the airport. The UK was already a net importer of diesel and jet fuel, but its need for premium middle distillates' imports has risen since the closure of Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland at the end of April . Net UK diesel and kerosine-jet imports rose on the year by 2.6pc and 1.7pc to 793,000t and 762,000t, respectively, in May, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI). Lindsey was mostly running US light sweet WTI, which comprised more than 80,000 b/d, or almost 85pc of all crude delivered to the refinery's Immingham port, according to Vortexa. All was supplied by trading firm Glencore . Tracking data show two Aframax-sized tankers carrying WTI — Propontis and Kmarin Rigour — are on route to Immingham, although their discharge port could change. Glencore said it "is continuing to work with key stakeholders in efforts to support a safe and responsible outcome for the refinery." Crude traders said while some disruptions to operation at Lindsey might take place, a full shutdown in the near future is unlikely. A products trader said "the deals already concluded would be performed, unless the liquidator decides otherwise." By George Maher-Bonnett and Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canada rescinds digital tax after Trump threats

30/06/25

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30/06/25

Canada rescinds digital tax after Trump threats

Calgary, 30 June (Argus) — Canada has rescinded a tax aimed at some of the US' largest technology companies, two days after being threatened with more tariffs by its southern neighbour. Canada's digital services tax (DST) was to go into effect on Monday but was pulled by the minister of finance and national revenue, François-Philippe Champagne, on 29 June in a bid to keep trade negotiations with the US on track. The DST would have collected revenue from online marketplaces, online advertising and social media companies, including giants Meta and Google, whose income within Canada are currently hard to track. The Canadian government was expecting a windfall of C$7.2bn ($5.3bn) over a five-year period, which would have begun retroactively in 2022. US president Donald Trump on 27 June again threatened punitive tariffs against Canada this week if the DST was not lifted. Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney agreed on 16 June at the G7 Leaders' Summit that they would work toward a broad trade agreement within 30 days. Canada, in a statement, said it is now targeting 21 July to finalize a deal. The two countries are still part of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) free trade agreement negotiated by Trump in 2020. But Trump has imposed tariffs of 25pc on imports of cars and auto parts from Canada, and 50pc on steel and aluminum. An executive order signed by Trump in March exempts all CUSMA-compliant goods from his new tariffs. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK's Lindsey refinery enters administration

30/06/25

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30/06/25

UK's Lindsey refinery enters administration

London, 30 June (Argus) — The UK's 105,700 b/d Lindsey oil refinery has entered a liquidation process. Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery, Prax Storage Lindsey, and Prax Terminals Killingholme will be wound up, the government said. The parent company, Prax, was approached for comment on the status of operations at the Lindsey site. Refinery employees appeared to be working, according to Unite spokesman Ryan Fletcher. Lindsey refinery customers and suppliers have been instructed to contact appointed administrators at FTI Consulting. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Senate to vote on $3 trillion energy, tax bill

30/06/25

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30/06/25

US Senate to vote on $3 trillion energy, tax bill

Washington, 30 June (Argus) — The Republican-controlled US Senate is set to vote as early as today on a bill that would gut clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, open vast amounts of land to drilling, dismantle fuel-economy standards and extend trillions of dollars in expiring tax cuts. The Senate over the weekend voted 51-49 to start debate on the bill following weeks of infighting among moderates and conservatives, setting up a final vote that could occur as soon as today. Ahead of the vote, Republicans overhauled the bill to make deep cuts to existing tax credits for wind and solar energy, in addition to imposing an excise tax on wind and solar projects that come online after 2027 unless developers can show their equipment does not come from "prohibited foreign entities" such as China. Renewable energy groups say the last-minute changes to the budget bill — which would make tax credits contingent on a project starting to begin service, rather than just starting construction, by 2027 — would be devastating for investors and cause hundreds of thousands of job losses. Wind and solar developers say they could not invest in new projects because of the uncertainty on whether they would qualify for tax credits or be subject to the excise tax. "The Senate language effectively takes both wind and solar electric supply off the table," American Council on Renewable Energy chief executive Ray Long said. President Donald Trump's administration had pushed to terminate the tax credits for wind and solar, which had been expanded under the Inflation Reduction Act climate legislation Congress passed in 2022 as a way to transition to clean electricity. US energy secretary Chris Wright, in an opinion piece on 27 June, contended that the tax credits were raising prices and that it was "time to stop subsidizing such insanity in perpetuity." The revised bill would give clean hydrogen developers until 1 January 2028 to start construction to qualify for a tax credit of up to $3/kg. In another change, US senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) dropped a proposal that could have sold off millions of acres of public land toward private developers and landowners. Trump has said the US House of Representatives "must be ready" to send the bill to his desk before the 4 July holiday, a timeline that would not allow the chamber to consider any changes to the measure. Trump has said Republicans should not take vacation until the bill passes, even as some far-right conservatives have balked at the policies in the bill and a price tag that is expected to add more than $3 trillion to the deficit over a decade, according to the US Congressional Budget Office. The bill is expected to cut more than $500bn in funding by gutting most of the climate and energy programs from the Inflation Reduction Act. It would eliminate most incentives to purchase electric vehicles by terminating a $7,500 tax credit within 90 days and repealing penalties for automakers that fail to achieve fuel-economy standards. Senate Republicans such as Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and John Curtis (R-Utah) had pushed to walk back some of the proposed cuts to the clean energy tax credits, but the last-minute revisions restored the deep cuts sought by far-right conservatives in the House. Nuclear and geothermal power plants would fare slightly better under the bill, remaining eligible for the full value of an electricity tax credit through 2033, although it could have remained in place indefinitely under existing law. US biofuel producers are also set to benefit from the bill from a four-year extension, through 2031, of a clean fuel production credit worth up to $1.25/USG for transportation fuel and $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Oil and gas producers would see major benefits under the bill's overhaul of energy policy on federal lands. The bill would mandate twice-a-year lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico, require regular onshore oil and gas leasing, slash royalty rates on new oil and gas leases, and roll back leasing changes made under the Inflation Reduction Act. In another win for the industry, the bill would reinstate a deduction for "intangible" drilling costs that is worth an estimated $427mn over a decade. The Senate bill lacks many of the permitting changes the House had in their version of the bill, such as a fee-for-permit program found ineligible for avoiding a filibuster. Also stripped out of the bill is a repeal of tailpipe standards that would support electric vehicles. Republicans have started to consider separate permitting legislation but any deal would likely need Democratic votes. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem

27/06/25

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27/06/25

Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem

Deepening divisions between developed and developing countries promise to make Cop 30 an arduous summit, writes Rhys Talbot Paris, 27 June (Argus) — Progress in technical discussions at the UN climate conference in Bonn, Germany, still leaves much work for the incoming Brazilian presidency ahead of November's Cop 30 summit in Belem if it is to deliver a strong outcome on emission cuts. After a rocky start in Bonn this month, with a two-day fight over the agenda, negotiators delivered texts across a number of areas relating to emission reductions. The Brazilian Cop takes place 10 years after the Paris agreement, in which states agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C, and two years after Cop 28 in Dubai, when they undertook the global stocktake (GST) to measure progress on reaching Paris goals and pledged to phase out fossil fuels. The annual Bonn talks are intended to allow negotiators to prepare the ground for political decisions to be made at Cop. But this year, even those discussions that have advanced well have tended to produce large texts with many mutually exclusive options in brackets, reflecting incompatible positions that will have to be worked out by policy makers between now and the end of the Belem Cop. The main arena for considering fossil fuels, a discussion of the meaning of the GST, has left a heavily divided text to Belem. Developed countries have argued for a longer, more extensive process, while some parties — including China, India and Saudi Arabia — have tried to limit the scope, duration and outputs of the sessions. And the texts do not directly address the elephant in the room — countries are this year delivering their nationally determined contribution (NDC) documents laying out their plans to cut emissions. Those plans are likely to be insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. And the Brazilian presidency will have to grasp the initiative to find a way to ensure advances on the Paris and Dubai goals. The leader's summit to be held immediately before Cop could offer a chance for movement. The release of a keenly awaited synthesis report of NDCs on 24 October could offer a spur to this summit. "People will want a reaction from our leaders" when the report comes out, Cop 30 executive director Ana Toni said. But Brazil rejects the idea of a cover decision at the end of Belem as a home for discussion of fossil fuels. And the presidency has been reluctant to attack fossil fuels head on. "This is not an item of negotiation, the GST is," Toni said. Brazil must wrangle a fractious conference including major fossil fuel producers such as India, Saudi Arabia and Russia which resist any action on the topic, as well as facing criticism over its own plans to increase oil and gas production . Climate finance fight Climate finance permeated the Bonn talks, with developing countries trying to steer various work programmes towards the issue, while developed countries attempted to limit discussion. Developing countries said the finance settlement reached last year at Baku does not meet developed countries' obligations under the Paris agreement, as well as being far short of actual needs. And in parallel, they expressed their frustration with carbon border adjust mechanism (CBAM)-type arrangements planned for the EU and UK, and projected for Canada. Developed countries see these as essential to protecting their domestic industry and preventing carbon leakage, given their high carbon costs, but developing countries say the costs will fall mostly on them. These two issues appear likely to crop up again as stumbling blocks at Belem that the presidency will have to tackle with political engagement beforehand. Brazil has promoted Cop 30 as an "implementation" Cop, with no one particular agenda item dominating. This gives the country the arduous task of having to make concrete progress on many items, rather than focus on one headline target. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump discusses possible Israel attack on Iran

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UK's Lindsey refinery insolvent: Update

UK's Lindsey refinery insolvent: Update

Canada rescinds digital tax after Trump threats

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US Senate to vote on $3 trillion energy, tax bill

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