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US services activity stagnates in July: ISM survey

  • Market: Coal, Metals
  • 05/08/25

Economic activity in the US services sector, the biggest part of the economy, nearly stagnated in July as new orders slowed and employment contracted amid uncertainty over tariffs.

The US services purchasing managers index (PMI) slowed to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Tuesday. Readings above 50 signal growth while readings below that threshold mean contraction.

New orders fell 1 percentage point to 50.3 while the employment index fell to 46.4, marking a fourth month of contraction in the last five months, in line with last week's employment report showing weak job growth in the three months through July.

The business activity/production index fell to 52.6 in July from 54.2, showing slowing expansion.

"Our business activity is flat. We are not trending up or down," one services survey respondent said. "Tariffs are now starting to show up in pricing, and we are seeing increases across the board."

The latest ISM report on services follows a 30 July report from ISM showing the manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, marking a fifth month of contraction.

The supplier deliveries index rose to 51, an eighth month of expansion, from 50.3, ISM reported Tuesday. Expansion in the index indicates slower deliveries, partly due to slowing deliveries from overseas suppliers.

"Economic uncertainty remains the dominant theme. However, the tariff talk has turned out to be much more bluster than actual policy, and businesses have seemed to tune out the noise," another respondent said.

The prices index rose by 2.4 points to 69.9, the highest since October 2022.


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30/08/25

Brazil steel imports set for record in 2025

Brazil steel imports set for record in 2025

Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil is on track to import a record 6.3mn metric tonnes (t) of rolled steel by year-end, industry chamber Instituto Aço Brasil said. The domestic steel industry association sharply revised its 2025 steel import estimates in July, raising the expected annual increase to 32.2pc from a prior estimate for a 11.5pc gain from 2024, when Brazil imported 4.77mn t of rolled steel. This adds more than 1mn t in additional imports compared to the previous estimate from November. The risk that imports, especially from China, pose to Brazil's domestic steel industry was a major theme at the Aço Brasil Congress on 26-27 August. The event was marked by highly politicized discussions, some participants said. Government safeguard measures, including anti-dumping investigations and quotas that restrict lower tariffs, have made imports more expensive, with duties of up to 25pc applied to key seaborne products. Still, import volumes continue to rise on a monthly basis. Buyers in the north and northeast continue to favor imports despite a 25pc tariff because the regions have no rolling mills. Steel from the southeast of the country is more expensive because of high freight charges and heavier taxation on cross-country transport. State-level tax advantages have increased steel imports through two of the country's main entry ports — Manaus in the north and São Francisco do Sul in the south. These incentives add another layer of pressure on the domestic industry, Aço Brasil said. Brazilian buyers also remain wary of potential supply shortages from domestic mills, a scenario that has occurred in the past and led to price spikes. As a result, some prefer imported steel, even if delivery times are longer. Importers also benefit from cheaper credit offered by foreign-based trading companies, which provide lower interest rates than those available in the Brazilian financial system. Total imports now represent 30pc of domestic steel sales, comparable to what 10 mini mills in Brazil produce in a year. Import penetration will increase to 22pc in 2025 from 18pc a year earlier, Aço Brasil estimated. In addition to direct imports, the industry is also assessing the impact of indirect imports through finished products that contain steel. Brazil is expected to import more than 6mn t of steel manufactured products by the end of the year, Aço Brasil said. This estimate assumes that the pace of imports observed between January and July 2025 will continue through the remainder of the year. The new US tariffs on many of these products also threaten domestic steel buyers in Brazil's manufacturing sector, which could potentially lead to a drop in demand. Brazil's steel industry also raised its projections for apparent consumption. This is the measure of production and imports minus exports. Production and domestic sales estimates remained largely unchanged at 36.6mn t and 21.1mn t, respectively. Apparent steel consumption in Brazil is expected to grow by 5pc to 27.4mn t this year, compared with a previous forecast of a 1.5pc increase made at the end of 2024, Aço Brasil said. Exports are set to increase to 9.6mn t from 9.5mn a year earlier, despite tighter import restrictions in the US. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US court rules against Trump emergency tariffs


29/08/25
News
29/08/25

US court rules against Trump emergency tariffs

Washington, 29 August (Argus) — President Donald Trump overstepped his authority to place emergency tariffs on most goods imported into the US, a federal appeals court said in a sweeping decision today that will remain on hold until at least 14 October. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, in a split 7-4 ruling, affirmed a lower court ruling from May that said Trump did not have the ability to unilaterally impose tariffs under a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling, if upheld, would invalidate many of the tariffs that Trump has imposed since taking office and eventually require the US to issue refunds, although the ruling does not apply to separate sectoral tariffs such as those on steel and automobiles. Trump has used IEEPA to impose tariffs of 10-50pc on nearly all global trading partners, although he has exempted most energy imports. Among those tariffs are Trump's unilateral decision to increase tariffs to 50pc on Brazil in retaliation for criminal charges against its former president, along with the 50pc tariffs on India ostensibly in retaliation for purchasing Russian crude. The appeals court today put its ruling on hold until at least 14 October to provide the White House time to file an appeal to the US Supreme Court. If the administration files an appeal, the decision would remain on hold until the Supreme Court rejects the appeal or reaches a final decision, which means the tariffs will remain in effect in the near-term. Trump, in a social media post, criticized the ruling from what he says is a "Highly Partisan Appeals Court". He said with the "help" of the Supreme Court, where Republican appointees have a 6-3 majority, the tariffs will ultimately be upheld. Trump has previously said it would be "impossible" to pay back the tariffs he has imposed. "If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America," Trump wrote today. The US Court of International Trade, in a ruling in May, previously found that Trump's emergency tariffs under IEEPA were unlawful and that any tariffs collected would need to be refunded to importers. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on 29 May quickly imposed an administrative stay putting that ruling on hold, and held oral arguments on 31 July. The court, in its ruling today, said it was not deciding if IEEPA authorized the president to issue tariffs, but instead said it was deciding whether Trump's country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs and separate tariffs tied to drug trafficking were lawful. The court noted that IEEPA does not explicitly mention the word tariff, making it seem "unlikely" that Congress intended to give the president "unlimited authority to mention tariffs." The court also said the tariffs ran afoul of what is known as the "majority questions doctrine", which states that it is up to Congress to decide questions of major economic significance. In a dissent, circuit judge Richard Taranto and three other judges said they believed IEEPA provided an open congressional grant of emergency authority to impose import tariffs By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs


29/08/25
News
29/08/25

Brazil starts process for reciprocating US tariffs

Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil has started the process of developing reciprocal tariffs against the US, vice-president and trade minister Geraldo Alckmin said, a move designed to speed up negotiations. Brazil's foreign trade chamber, Camex, has 30 days to determine how the 50pc tariffs the US imposed on Brazil effective 6 August can be countered under the country's economic reciprocity law approved in April. The law authorizes retaliation through goods, services and intellectual property. There is no time frame for the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs after the initial 30-day deliberation period. "Brazil will not give up on its sovereignty," Alckmin said this week during a visit to Mexico, where he signed two cooperation agreements on biofuels with Mexico as well as a letter of intent on agriculture. "I hope that [this process] will help accelerate dialogue and negotiations [with the US], which is what president Lula has been asking us to do." The move comes weeks after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had said that Brazil would not reciprocate the tariffs but seek to negotiate. Brazil has been working to counter the tariffs' effect on its economy by supporting companies in efforts to find new markets , and by approving a line of credit to small businesses hurt by the measures. Earlier this month, Brazil asked the World Trade Organization to intervene in the dispute over tariffs. The US typically runs a trade surplus for goods and services with Brazil, which has totaled more than $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview in early July. In the first half of 2025 the US' trade surplus with Brazil reached $2.3bn, a more than seven-fold increase from a year before, according to US-Brazil chamber of commerce Amcham. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EIA delays some reports after staffing cuts: Correction


29/08/25
News
29/08/25

EIA delays some reports after staffing cuts: Correction

Corrects the name of delayed biofuels report in 5th paragraph. Washington, 29 August (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has delayed the publication of a handful of reports and is proposing the cancellation of another after losing about 30pc of its staff since President Donald Trump began his second term. The delays to reports on uranium prices, solar panel shipments and biofuels are the latest sign of strain at the agency since it lost more than 100 staff from voluntary buyouts and other cuts pursued by the Trump administration. Earlier this year, EIA dropped plans to release its I n ternational Energy Outlook this year because of a loss of key staff. Oil and gas producers, utility executives, traders, regulators, analysts and others often rely on data and reports from the EIA, an independent agency that is responsible for collecting and analyzing energy data. EIA declined to comment on whether staffing affected the timing of its reports, but said it was committed to publishing reliable data. "We remain committed to meeting high statistical standards, and we will not publish any data or analysis that doesn't meet those standards," EIA said. An annual report on uranium purchases and prices that since 1996 had been published by June is now set for release in September, according to the agency's website. EIA's annual renewable diesel fuel and other biofuels plant production capacity report, initially set for release in August, should be coming out in September, an agency official said. EIA has yet to release a monthly report on solar photovoltaic modules since last December, and today the agency proposed canceling the report entirely. The last version of the report showed that shipments of solar modules increased to a peak wattage of 33GW in 2023, a sixfold increase to 2013, while the price per peak watt had fallen in half. "EIA has determined that the value of the data collected by the survey no longer exceeds the burden of collecting and publishing it," the agency said in a formal notice requesting comment on its plan to end the report. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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S Korea's LGES, Vietnam's Kim Long sign NCM battery MoU


29/08/25
News
29/08/25

S Korea's LGES, Vietnam's Kim Long sign NCM battery MoU

Singapore, 29 August (Argus) — South Korean top battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES) has signed a memorandum of understanding to supply Vietnamese automaker Kim Long Motor with nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cylindrical battery cells. LGES will supply Kim Long Motor with NCM battery cells for the latter to produce and assemble battery packs, said Kim Long Motor on 28 August. The volumes and timeline of the supply were not disclosed. Kim Long's 1.2 trillion dong ($45.5mn) battery manufacturing and assembling complex located in the Kim Long Motor industrial park in Vietnam's Hue city is expected to begin operations in early 2026. The project in its early stages and is expected to have a capacity of 1 GWh/yr, with expansion planned over the following years. Thai-listed firm Cho Thavee group earlier in June agreed to buy from Kim Long around 3,000 units/yr of electric buses as well as diesel buses equipped with Chinese engine manufacturer Yuchai's diesel engine. The Vietnamese government is transitioning its road transportation sector towards electric mobility through electric vehicles. It introduced a national action program for green transportation through 2050 that sets out a detailed roadmap for road transport transition, which was stipulated under a decision approved in 2022, according to a policy overview by southeast Asian regional law firm Tilleke & Gibbins. Targets set under the decision include a goal to have 50pc of urban vehicles and 100pc of urban buses and taxis powered by electricity or "green energy" by 2030, with the target rising to 100pc for all urban road vehicles by 2050. The country also aims to discontinue all production, assembly, and import of fossil fuels-based automobiles and motorcycles by 2040. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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