Latest news on trade tariffs
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Chemicals, polymers part of EU tariff consultation
Chemicals, polymers part of EU tariff consultation
London, 8 May (Argus) — Polymer and chemical products are included in a European Commission public consultation on a list of US imports which could become subject to EU countermeasures, if ongoing EU-US negotiations do not result in a mutually beneficial outcome and the removal of the US tariffs. The consultation will remain open until 10 June, after which a final proposal will be made for the adoption of countermeasures and a legal act prepared for imposing them "in case negotiations with the US do not produce a satisfactory result". The list of additional products that could face import tariffs includes many polymers and some chemicals, although appears to target value more than volume. These additions include polypropylene homopolymer and copolymers (HS codes 39021000, 39023000), although these account for a relatively small volume of trade, at 114,000t in 2024, according to GTT data. Other polymer codes on the consultation list include some polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene and polyethylene terephthalate products. Isocyanates and some polyurethanes are part of the consultation. Imports of acetic acid, a methanol derivative were included. EU 27 imports from the US in 2024 were 540,000t. Liquid caustic soda has been included. The EU 27 countries imported 540,000t in 2024. Benzene and xylenes have been included, but only under distinct "non-chemically defined" HS codes (27071000 and 27073000) and for which volumes are small. The European Union on 9 April announced a 90-day delay to a series of planned countermeasures specific to US tariffs on metals to allow space for negotiations. These are separate from the new consultation and remain poised to go ahead if negotiations fail. They included a 25pc tariff on imports from the US of polyethylene under codes representing nearly 1mnt of imports in 2024. By Alex Sands Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK
Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK
Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Washington, 6 May (Argus) — President Donald Trump suggested today he would not lift tariffs on imports from Canada and told Canadian prime minister Mark Carney that the US-Canada-Mexico (USMCA) free trade agreement needs to be renegotiated. Trump, who hosted Carney at the White House today, told reporters that there was nothing Canada's leader could tell him to change his mind on stiff tariffs he imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. "It's just the way it is," Trump said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, his administration has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canada-sourced steel and aluminum, and a 25pc tariff on some cars and autoparts imported from Canada. Any product that qualifies for duty-free treatment under the USMCA is exempt from tariffs Trump imposed. The 10pc tariff Trump imposed on Canadian crude and other energy imports only lasted from 4-7 March, causing turmoil in North American energy markets. But even the remaining tariffs are a significant hindrance for the integrated North American auto industry, executives in Canada and the US have said. Trump today described the USMCA, which he negotiated during his first administration, as merely a "transitional deal" and suggested that it could be either terminated or renegotiated completely. The USMCA includes a provision calling for it to be reviewed by all three countries in 2026. The existing free trade agreement is "a basis for broader negotiations," Carney said, adding that "some things about it are going to have to change." Carney made his first trip to Washington just a week after winning the 28 April parliamentary election, following a campaign centered around his opposition to Trump's policies. Trump and Carney offered polite compliments to each other, but there was little visible chemistry between the two men. Trump doubled down on his suggestion that Canada could become the 51st US state, prompting Carney to tell him that "as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale." "Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign in the last several months, it's not for sale," Carney said. "Never say never", Trump retorted. Trump also repeated his past claims that "we don't do much business with Canada. From our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us." "We are the largest client of the United States," said Carney. "We have a tremendous auto sector between the two of us." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
New York, 6 May (Argus) — US onshore crude production has likely peaked as activity slows in response to the recent decline in oil prices, according to Diamondback Energy. The leading US independent estimates that the US hydraulic fracturing crew count is already down 15pc this year, while the frack crew count in the Permian basin has fallen by about 20pc from its January peak. Moreover, the US oil rig count is expected to be almost 10pc lower by the end of the second quarter with further declines seen. "As a result of these activity cuts, it is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter," Diamondback's chief executive officer Travis Stice said in a letter to shareholders. Given the shale sector has matured from the rapid growth seen in the early days of the shale boom, "this is not one of the types of declines that can be offset by improved efficiencies," Stice later told analysts on a conference call. Diamondback Energy also set out plans to cut spending and drill and complete fewer wells in the aftermath of the price slump, which has been driven by the economic fall-out over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policy, as well as the Opec+ group's plan to accelerate the return of barrels to the market. Capital spending is now seen at $3.4bn-$3.8bn this year, a decline of 10pc from the midpoint of previous expectations. The company will drop three rigs and one full-time completion crew in the second quarter, and expects to hold steady at those levels through most of the third quarter. If oil prices remain weak or fall further, Diamondback could reduce activity further. Or if prices rebound above $65, it could ramp activity back to previous levels. Under normal circumstances, it would use a period of lower service costs to build more drilled but uncompleted wells. But well casing, its biggest drilling input cost, has increased by 10pc in the last quarter due to steel tariffs. "To use a driving analogy, we are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light," said Stice. "If the light turns green before we get to the stoplight, we will hit the gas again, but we are also prepared to brake if needed." The impact on oil output is expected to be minimal given volumes have outperformed year to date. The company now sees annual oil production in a range of 480,000-495,000 b/d, down just 1pc from the midpoint of prior guidance. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Washington, 6 May (Argus) — President Donald Trump suggested today he would not lift tariffs on imports from Canada and told Canadian prime minister Mark Carney that the US-Canada-Mexico (USMCA) free trade agreement needs to be renegotiated. Trump, who hosted Carney at the White House today, told reporters that there was nothing Canada's leader could tell him to change his mind on stiff tariffs he imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. "It's just the way it is," Trump said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, his administration has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canada-sourced steel and aluminum, and a 25pc tariff on some cars and autoparts imported from Canada. Any product that qualifies for duty-free treatment under the USMCA is exempt from tariffs Trump imposed. The 10pc tariff Trump imposed on Canadian crude and other energy imports only lasted from 4-7 March, causing turmoil in North American energy markets. But even the remaining tariffs are a significant hindrance for the integrated North American auto industry, executives in Canada and the US have said. Trump today described the USMCA, which he negotiated during his first administration, as merely a "transitional deal" and suggested that it could be either terminated or renegotiated completely. The USMCA includes a provision calling for it to be reviewed by all three countries in 2026. The existing free trade agreement is "a basis for broader negotiations," Carney said, adding that "some things about it are going to have to change." Carney made his first trip to Washington just a week after winning the 28 April parliamentary election, following a campaign centered around his opposition to Trump's policies. Trump and Carney offered polite compliments to each other, but there was little visible chemistry between the two men. Trump doubled down on his suggestion that Canada could become the 51st US state, prompting Carney to tell him that "as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale." "Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign in the last several months, it's not for sale," Carney said. "Never say never", Trump retorted. Trump also repeated his past claims that "we don't do much business with Canada. From our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us." "We are the largest client of the United States," said Carney. "We have a tremendous auto sector between the two of us." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
New York, 6 May (Argus) — US onshore crude production has likely peaked as activity slows in response to the recent decline in oil prices, according to Diamondback Energy. The leading US independent estimates that the US hydraulic fracturing crew count is already down 15pc this year, while the frack crew count in the Permian basin has fallen by about 20pc from its January peak. Moreover, the US oil rig count is expected to be almost 10pc lower by the end of the second quarter with further declines seen. "As a result of these activity cuts, it is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter," Diamondback's chief executive officer Travis Stice said in a letter to shareholders. Given the shale sector has matured from the rapid growth seen in the early days of the shale boom, "this is not one of the types of declines that can be offset by improved efficiencies," Stice later told analysts on a conference call. Diamondback Energy also set out plans to cut spending and drill and complete fewer wells in the aftermath of the price slump, which has been driven by the economic fall-out over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policy, as well as the Opec+ group's plan to accelerate the return of barrels to the market. Capital spending is now seen at $3.4bn-$3.8bn this year, a decline of 10pc from the midpoint of previous expectations. The company will drop three rigs and one full-time completion crew in the second quarter, and expects to hold steady at those levels through most of the third quarter. If oil prices remain weak or fall further, Diamondback could reduce activity further. Or if prices rebound above $65, it could ramp activity back to previous levels. Under normal circumstances, it would use a period of lower service costs to build more drilled but uncompleted wells. But well casing, its biggest drilling input cost, has increased by 10pc in the last quarter due to steel tariffs. "To use a driving analogy, we are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light," said Stice. "If the light turns green before we get to the stoplight, we will hit the gas again, but we are also prepared to brake if needed." The impact on oil output is expected to be minimal given volumes have outperformed year to date. The company now sees annual oil production in a range of 480,000-495,000 b/d, down just 1pc from the midpoint of prior guidance. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA trims WTI outlook to near $60/bl
EIA trims WTI outlook to near $60/bl
Calgary, 6 May (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be roughly $2/bl lower this year than previously expected with a shifting trade war continuing to add uncertainty, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $61.81/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $2.07/bl from its April forecast. The US light sweet benchmark will fall further yet to $55.24/bl in 2026, or $2.24/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices were revised downward by similar amounts and are now forecast at $65.85/bl in 2025 and $59.24/bl in 2026. The latest STEO reflects tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April but not a subsequent 90-day suspension of tariffs to some countries. The EIA estimates the tariff suspensions will likely have some offsetting effects to a subsequent escalation in Chinese tariffs, which were also not included in the latest outlook. A tariff-induced slowdown in the economy is expected to weigh on oil consumption, which the EIA projects will not keep pace with rising output. Global production of oil and liquid fuels was raised to 104.13mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.43mn b/d for 2026. These are higher from the prior forecast by 30,000 b/d and 80,000 b/d, respectively. Global consumption is now expected to average 103.71mn b/d in 2025, higher by 70,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.61mn b/d, lower by 70,000 b/d. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.5mn b/d in 2025, higher by 120,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 50,000 b/d at 20.44mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.42mn b/d in 2025 and 13.49mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 90,000 b/d and 70,000 b/d compared to the April STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking
US economy contracts in 1Q on pre-tariff stocking
Houston, 30 April (Argus) — The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years, on less government spending and a surge in imports as companies stocked up on inventories before tariffs take effect. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual 0.3pc pace following growth of 2.4pc in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said today. GDP last fell by 1pc in the first quarter of 2022. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast 0.3pc GDP growth for the first quarter. Businesses stocked up on imports to get ahead of tariffs that President Donald Trump has wielded to restructure the global trading system. A monthly employment report in two days may show the impacts of Trump's mass federal firings, while Federal Reserve policymakers will meet next week to consider the effects of Trump's policies on prices. Imports, which detract from GDP growth, expanded by 41.3pc after falling by 1.9pc in the fourth quarter. Exports grew by 1.8pc after declining by 0.2pc. Consumer spending rose by an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter following 4pc growth in the fourth quarter. Domestic investment, which includes inventory builds, rose by an annual 21.9pc following a decline of 5.6pc in the prior quarter. Spending on equipment rose by 22.5pc following an 8.7pc decline in the fourth quarter. Government spending fell by 1.4pc after growth of 3.1pc. Federal spending fell by 5.1pc after growth of 4pc. Defense spending was down by an annual 8pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups Sweeny crude switching capacity: Update
Phillips 66 ups Sweeny crude switching capacity: Update
Adds CEO comment from earnings call Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Phillips 66 plans to run additional crude from the Permian basin in west Texas and eastern New Mexico through Sweeny, depending on market conditions, chief executive Mark Lashier said on an earnings call. The lighter crude from the Permian will displace imported heavy crude, he said. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Southwest Airlines withdrew its full-year 2025 and 2026 financial forecasts due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs. The US-based passenger airline limited its outlook to just the second quarter 2025 during its first quarter earnings release on Thursday, saying a projected economic slow-down would pressure unit revenue to be flat and possibly fall by 4pc compared to the second quarter 2024. In the second quarter available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — are expected to rise by 1-2pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. First quarter ASMs were down by 1.9pc to 41.3bn from the same three-months in 2024, which was in-line with their expectations. Southwest's first quarter load factor, or the percentage of seats filled, dropped by 4.4pc from the prior year to 73.9pc. First quarter total operating expenses, including jet fuel, dropped by 2.2pc from the previous year to $6.65bn. Southwest paid $2.49¢/USG for jet fuel in the first quarter, a decrease of 16pc from 2024. Fuel efficiency improved in the first quaer due more fuel-efficient aircraft, with 500mn USG consumed, down by 4.6pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. Expected lower jet fuel prices should help ease operating cost in the upcoming months. Southwest expects to pay $2.20¢/USG to $2.3¢/USG for jet fuel in the next quarter. Southwest narrowed its first quarter 2025 net loss to $149mn from $231mn a year earlier. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
US onshore crude output likely peaked: Diamondback
New York, 6 May (Argus) — US onshore crude production has likely peaked as activity slows in response to the recent decline in oil prices, according to Diamondback Energy. The leading US independent estimates that the US hydraulic fracturing crew count is already down 15pc this year, while the frack crew count in the Permian basin has fallen by about 20pc from its January peak. Moreover, the US oil rig count is expected to be almost 10pc lower by the end of the second quarter with further declines seen. "As a result of these activity cuts, it is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter," Diamondback's chief executive officer Travis Stice said in a letter to shareholders. Given the shale sector has matured from the rapid growth seen in the early days of the shale boom, "this is not one of the types of declines that can be offset by improved efficiencies," Stice later told analysts on a conference call. Diamondback Energy also set out plans to cut spending and drill and complete fewer wells in the aftermath of the price slump, which has been driven by the economic fall-out over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policy, as well as the Opec+ group's plan to accelerate the return of barrels to the market. Capital spending is now seen at $3.4bn-$3.8bn this year, a decline of 10pc from the midpoint of previous expectations. The company will drop three rigs and one full-time completion crew in the second quarter, and expects to hold steady at those levels through most of the third quarter. If oil prices remain weak or fall further, Diamondback could reduce activity further. Or if prices rebound above $65, it could ramp activity back to previous levels. Under normal circumstances, it would use a period of lower service costs to build more drilled but uncompleted wells. But well casing, its biggest drilling input cost, has increased by 10pc in the last quarter due to steel tariffs. "To use a driving analogy, we are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light," said Stice. "If the light turns green before we get to the stoplight, we will hit the gas again, but we are also prepared to brake if needed." The impact on oil output is expected to be minimal given volumes have outperformed year to date. The company now sees annual oil production in a range of 480,000-495,000 b/d, down just 1pc from the midpoint of prior guidance. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US LNG developers seek tariff loophole in FTZs
US LNG developers seek tariff loophole in FTZs
Construction costs for planned LNG projects could shoot up as a result of new import tariffs on key metals, writes Tray Swanson London, 30 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's ultra-protectionist trade policies are pushing developers of LNG export projects to consider using foreign-trade zones (FTZs), in a bid to avoid or defer tariff bills on imported materials. Trump's imposition of wide-ranging import tariffs this year raises the risk of cost inflation for LNG projects, particularly for the six terminals that are already under construction and the seven expected to reach a final investment decision (FID) this year. The 25pc levy on all foreign-sourced steel and aluminium introduced in March is likely to have the greatest impact on LNG projects, given that steel and aluminium can account for about 30pc of a facility's $5bn-25bn construction costs. Steel is required for liquefaction units, pipelines, tanks, structural frameworks and cryogenic hoses, and aluminum is used in heat exchangers. Many LNG developers are seeking to reduce or defer paying the new duties by establishing foreign-trade zones (FTZs) — designated areas in which foreign inputs can avoid import tariffs, at least temporarily, if they fulfil certain criteria. FTZs were introduced in the US nearly a century ago to counteract domestic protectionist trade policy and help US companies remain internationally competitive. US developer Cheniere's 33mn t/yr Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana has already been operating as an FTZ since 2015, according to the US FTZ Board. And Australian independent Woodside Energy's 16.5mn t/yr Louisiana LNG facility in Calcasieu Parish near Lake Charles is in an FTZ, a company spokesman told Argus. The project reached an FID on 29 April and is expected to cost $17.5bn, up from a weeks-old estimate of $16bn. About a quarter of Louisiana LNG's capital expenditure is for equipment and construction materials, roughly half of which will need to be imported so are subject to tariffs, Woodside chief executive Meg O'Neill told investors on 23 April. Other planned projects in Louisiana are looking to establish or join FTZs. US developer Commonwealth LNG's proposed 9.5mn t/yr terminal in Cameron Parish is in the process of joining the same trade zone as Sabine Pass LNG and compatriot firm Venture Global's 12.4mn t/yr Calcasieu Pass facility. Midstream firm Energy Transfer's 16.5mn t/yr Lake Charles LNG facility has been approved by the US FTZ Board, although it has not been activated as an FTZ as no significant construction has taken place yet. The project is awaiting federal permits ahead of likely reaching an FID later this year. On the Texas side of the Sabine river, state-run QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil's 18.1mn t/yr Golden Pass facility, set to come on line in 2026, and US developer Sempra's 13.5mn t/yr Port Arthur LNG terminal, expected on line in 2027, have joined the southeast Texas FTZ. Call of duties FTZs are treated as though they are outside of US Customs territory for purposes of duty payments. This enables companies to defer or reduce tariff payments until the imported product is used commercially. For LNG projects in FTZs, developers do not need to pay tariffs on imported steel or modular liquefaction trains until the unit comes on line and begins producing LNG. Terminals with multiple trains can stagger the payments. Most onshore project developers import materials and components and build their trains on site. Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility used this approach and required 89,000t of structural steel for its six trains. Port Arthur LNG and US firm NextDecade's 17.6mn t/yr Rio Grande LNG plant intend to do the same. But NextDecade is not active in the Port of Brownsville's FTZ, according to the FTZ Board, meaning it is probably the project at greatest immediate risk from the metals tariffs. By late February, NextDecade had secured only 69pc of the materials it needs for the project's first two trains and 33pc for its third train. NextDecade and the Port of Brownsville declined a request for comment. Some projects choose to use smaller, prefabricated trains that are built elsewhere and imported. Venture Global took this approach for its Calcasieu Pass and 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines plants, using imported trains built by oil field services provider Baker Hughes in Italy, and it intends to use the same technology for its proposed CP2 terminal, on track to reach an FID this year. Under such arrangements, the LNG developer must pay the US' import tariffs. Baker Hughes' customers take ownership of the products it makes in Italy, the company said on 23 April. Calcasieu Pass, which began commercial service on 15 April , is in an FTZ, but Venture Global will need to expand its boundaries to include the adjacent CP2 project. FTZs also have a so-called inverted tariff benefit that allows companies to pay the duty on the finished unit if it is cheaper than the rate for the components. But Trump's executive orders outlining the tariffs essentially prevent the use of the inverted benefit, outlining a special status requirement that import duties be applied to the components, trade group the National Association of Foreign-Trade Zones' director of advocacy and strategic relations, Melissa Irmen, tells Argus. If the tariffs are lifted, firms that had deferred payments would still be required to pay the duties when they reach commercial service unless the order that removes or modifies the tariffs specifically dictates otherwise, Irmen says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadians go to polls in general election
Canadians go to polls in general election
Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chemicals, polymers part of EU tariff consultation
Chemicals, polymers part of EU tariff consultation
London, 8 May (Argus) — Polymer and chemical products are included in a European Commission public consultation on a list of US imports which could become subject to EU countermeasures, if ongoing EU-US negotiations do not result in a mutually beneficial outcome and the removal of the US tariffs. The consultation will remain open until 10 June, after which a final proposal will be made for the adoption of countermeasures and a legal act prepared for imposing them "in case negotiations with the US do not produce a satisfactory result". The list of additional products that could face import tariffs includes many polymers and some chemicals, although appears to target value more than volume. These additions include polypropylene homopolymer and copolymers (HS codes 39021000, 39023000), although these account for a relatively small volume of trade, at 114,000t in 2024, according to GTT data. Other polymer codes on the consultation list include some polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene and polyethylene terephthalate products. Isocyanates and some polyurethanes are part of the consultation. Imports of acetic acid, a methanol derivative were included. EU 27 imports from the US in 2024 were 540,000t. Liquid caustic soda has been included. The EU 27 countries imported 540,000t in 2024. Benzene and xylenes have been included, but only under distinct "non-chemically defined" HS codes (27071000 and 27073000) and for which volumes are small. The European Union on 9 April announced a 90-day delay to a series of planned countermeasures specific to US tariffs on metals to allow space for negotiations. These are separate from the new consultation and remain poised to go ahead if negotiations fail. They included a 25pc tariff on imports from the US of polyethylene under codes representing nearly 1mnt of imports in 2024. By Alex Sands Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Caustic soda cargoes largely exempt from US port fees
Caustic soda cargoes largely exempt from US port fees
Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US caustic soda importers are expected to be able to circumvent new fees on Chinese built or owned vessels scheduled to be imposed this fall. Offshore caustic soda imports to the US are primarily shipped on vessels that fall within the list of exemptions provided by the US Trade Representative last week, including those with capacities less than or equal to 55,000 deadweight tonnes (dwt) and specialized vessels for liquid chemical transportation. The US is a net exporter of caustic soda, with only 3-5pc of total domestic supply supplemented by imports, according to census bureau data collected by Global Trade Tracker (GTT) and the latest estimates from Argus Chlor-Alkali Analytics . East Asia exporters are critical suppliers to west coast consumers, but domestic importers anticipate most vessels carrying caustic soda to the west coast to be exempt from fees based on ship sizes less than 55,000dwt. US caustic soda importers have faced several new regulations and policies this year increasing the cost of business, with established trade lanes facing reshaping. President Donald Trump's baseline 10pc tariff on most trade partners is expected to strengthen demand for US Gulf coast-produced caustic soda, especially from east coast importers vying to source less from EU producers. West coast distributors, though, are expected to continue importing from East Asia suppliers and pass along tariff-related expenses to end users. Additionally, west coast importers earlier this year imposed a $15/dry short ton (dst) line-item charge to customers following the rollout of The California Air Resources Board (CARB) emissions control requirements for tanker vessels at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The newly-enforced regulation requires shippers to limit in-berth greenhouse gas emissions by connecting to shore power or utilizing a CARB Approved Emission Control Strategy (CAECS). By Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies have created tremendous uncertainty for US importers of recycled polymers, and constant halts and flip-flopping from the administration have led some to pause their US operations. Multiple importers told Argus that the constantly changing US tariffs on goods have upended business plans, and forced them to pause their US operations for the time being due to uncertainty about the taxes their material will face when it reaches US shores. "You have to have some confidence that conditions will hold in order to import," one trader told Argus . Trump's tariff rollout began on 1 February, when he announced that China would face a 10pc universal tariff, and the US's two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, would face 25pc universal tariffs. At the time, market participants speculated that the 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico would make operations and sales more expensive for Mexican and Canadian recyclers, particularly those that trade bales or finished resin across the US border. After some negotiations between world leaders, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, though the 10pc tariff on China went into effect as planned. The 25pc universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were pushed back again on 6 March, but tariffs on aluminum — a significant competitor to rPET packaging — went into place on 12 March. The tariffs on aluminum have not been rescinded or paused, and the extra cost for imported aluminum as a result of the tariff could incentivize US consumer goods companies to use more PET in their packaging. On 9 April, the US put into place varying reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries that export recycled resin to the US, including India, Malaysia and Vietnam. While rPET and vPET pellets were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, importers of rPE, rPP and PET waste were not excluded from the tariff. The same day, the reciprocal tariffs were pushed back 90 days in favor of a 10pc universal tariff that excludes Canada and Mexico. China and the US's reciprocal tariffs have escalated into a trade war, and currently material from China faces a 145pc tariff. Since the price is too high for most importers to be willing to pay, in essence all recycled resin imports from China are halted. China is one of the largest buyers of US virgin polyethylene https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2675420), and the current trade war with China has the potential to increase domestic supply as exporters are forced to find new buyers for resin. Increased competition from oversupplied virgin resin could pull down recycled resin pricing. Until some stability in tariff policy returns to the US, traders and importers will continue to turn to other destinations outside the US to sell their recycled resin. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
London, 3 April (Argus) — Nearly every country that sends fertilizer products to the US will be hit with fresh import duties after President Donald Trump yesterday announced reciprocal tariff policies that are likely to increase nutrient prices in the US. According to the White House administration, a baseline 10pc tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported into the US excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at a 25pc rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a reduced rate of 10pc. Imports of goods from other nations will begin paying the baseline 10pc rate on 5 April, while roughly 60 countries were given more specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have placed on US goods. The US imports a significant amount of fertilizer products from other countries to supplement limited domestic production capabilities. Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago are well known names in the fertilizer market as major producers that ship a large amount of product to the US. Under the new sweeping tariff policy Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago and Australia can expect a 10pc duty on all imports sent to the US, while Israel can expect a 17pc duty and Jordan will face a 20pc duty. A 28pc tariff will be applied to imports from Tunisia. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizers to the US and a reciprocal tariff does not apply to the country. But there is uncertainty as to whether Russia is exempt from the universal 10pc rate applied to other countries. Phosphates Countervailing duties largely blocking Russian and Moroccan phosphates have enabled Saudi Arabia to grow its share of US DAP/MAP imports to 45pc in 2024, according to GTT data. They also opened the door to non-traditional suppliers including Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, which together accounted for 21pc of US DAP/MAP imports last year. Australia has been a regular supplier to the US, averaging 9pc of imports over the past five years — although this fell to 4pc in 2024. The base 10pc tariff applied to Morocco will add to the countervailing duties in place and act as more of a deterrent. Still, customs data show that 10pc of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last year. Mexico supplied 318,000t of DAP/MAP to the US last year, accounting for 14pc of total imports. But the 25pc tariff imposed a month ago will probably stifle this trade flow. MAP barge prices in the US are currently equivalent to the mid-$660s/t cfr Nola. Latest MAP sales to Brazil were at $660/t cfr but indications are now reaching $680/t cfr. After these latest tariffs come into effect on 5 April, US buyers will have to pay more to secure phosphate supply, otherwise cargoes will be drawn to more attractive markets, such as Latin America. Potassium-based products, phos rock escape tariffs The White House also confirmed in an annex that some goods will be exempt from these latest tariffs including certain critical minerals. Goods that will be spared include a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. Trump last month included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals, and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The majority of the US' MOP supply is imported, with 98pc/yr coming from other countries, and 85pc of that from Canada, according to TFI data. The US typically imports 11mn-13mn t/yr of MOP, although GTT data show that the US imported close to 14mn t of MOP in 2024. USMCA still effective Tariffs on North American countries Mexico and Canada will continue within the status quo of an executive order issued in early March. All products covered under the USMCA free trade agreement will continue to be imported into the US without tariffs. USMCA compliant products include wholly created goods in Mexico or Canada, such as sulphur, MOP, ammonia and other nitrogen fertilizers, but goods produced with inputs that come from other countries, such as phosphate fertilizers manufactured in Mexico, are at greater risk of being tariffed, depending on how rules of origin outlined in the USMCA are enforced. Phosphate fertilizers produced in Mexico use imported phosphate rock as well as some imported ammonia, while the same products manufactured in Canada, for example, use domestically produced rock. The US fertilizer market is currently barrelling towards the final weeks of the spring application season, where nutrients are put into the ground as crop planting continues. Therefore most fertilizer purchasing for the spring has now taken place. But with the new tariffs applying to the majority of nutrient imports into the US, domestic prices and barge trade activity could accelerate above the norm as the market scurries to secure product before prices move to even more unfavourable levels. By Taylor Zavala, Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson New US import tariffs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
London, 9 April (Argus) — China will add an additional 50pc tariff on US goods, raising the total to 84pc from 10 April, the country's finance ministry said today, but agricultural markets could be largely sheltered from the fallout, because China has already been showing limited demand for US grains and oilseeds since December . Tariffs will rise to 84pc for US goods arriving in China, matching US tariffs on imports from China. But purchases of US-origin agricultural products from private importers to China has already wound down since December, meaning that any rises in duties are unlikely to put any further pressure on China-bound shipments. Just 9,900t of US corn arrived in China between December 2024 and February 2025, the latest available customs data show, compared with 1.4mn t a year earlier. Soybean sales have been higher across the same period, with 13.4mn t arriving between December and February this year, compared with 8.8mn t a year ago. But most private buyers have refrained from making new US-origin purchases since December. By Megan Evans Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK
Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK
Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Trump unlikely to lift tariffs on Canada
Washington, 6 May (Argus) — President Donald Trump suggested today he would not lift tariffs on imports from Canada and told Canadian prime minister Mark Carney that the US-Canada-Mexico (USMCA) free trade agreement needs to be renegotiated. Trump, who hosted Carney at the White House today, told reporters that there was nothing Canada's leader could tell him to change his mind on stiff tariffs he imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. "It's just the way it is," Trump said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, his administration has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canada-sourced steel and aluminum, and a 25pc tariff on some cars and autoparts imported from Canada. Any product that qualifies for duty-free treatment under the USMCA is exempt from tariffs Trump imposed. The 10pc tariff Trump imposed on Canadian crude and other energy imports only lasted from 4-7 March, causing turmoil in North American energy markets. But even the remaining tariffs are a significant hindrance for the integrated North American auto industry, executives in Canada and the US have said. Trump today described the USMCA, which he negotiated during his first administration, as merely a "transitional deal" and suggested that it could be either terminated or renegotiated completely. The USMCA includes a provision calling for it to be reviewed by all three countries in 2026. The existing free trade agreement is "a basis for broader negotiations," Carney said, adding that "some things about it are going to have to change." Carney made his first trip to Washington just a week after winning the 28 April parliamentary election, following a campaign centered around his opposition to Trump's policies. Trump and Carney offered polite compliments to each other, but there was little visible chemistry between the two men. Trump doubled down on his suggestion that Canada could become the 51st US state, prompting Carney to tell him that "as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale." "Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign in the last several months, it's not for sale," Carney said. "Never say never", Trump retorted. Trump also repeated his past claims that "we don't do much business with Canada. From our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us." "We are the largest client of the United States," said Carney. "We have a tremendous auto sector between the two of us." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ford expects $1.5bn tariff hit in 2025
Ford expects $1.5bn tariff hit in 2025
Pittsburgh, 5 May (Argus) — Ford expects tariffs to cost the US automaker about $1.5bn in profit this year, causing the firm to withdraw its full-year financial guidance today. Tariffs and the uncertain rollout of potential changes to those tariff caused the Dearborn, Michigan-based company to suspend its 2025 guidance, which was initially projected at $7bn-8.5bn in earnings before interest and taxes. US president Donald Trump has place 25pc import taxes on vehicles, steel and aluminum, placing immense pressure on US automakers, many of whom have operations in Mexico and Canada. Ford is the third major US automaker to rescind its financial guidance in the past week following similar decisions by Stellantis and General Motors . By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure
GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Automaker General Motors (GM) revised its 2025 guidance lower today to reflect $4bn-5bn of exposure to auto tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Full-year 2025 profit guidance was lowered to a $8.2bn-10.1bn range, from the $11.2bn-12.5bn guidance given in the company's fourth quarter earnings call earlier this year. The new guidance takes into account clarifications to tariffs already imposed on automakers earlier this week. GM's tariff exposure includes $2bn of vehicles imported from South Korea and tariffs on autos imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as "indirect material imports." GM said it expects to offset 30pc of the exposure by producing an additional 50,000 full-size trucks/yr at its Fort Wayne, Indiana, plant and expanding battery module assembly in the US. GM will also work to ensure its supply chain is US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant and nearshore its production, executives said. More than 80pc of GM's supply chain is USMCA compliant, most of which is based in the US. US president Donald Trump on 29 April offered to offset a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts scheduled to be imposed on 3 May and to exempt auto parts from accumulating these and and other import tariffs. Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on imported cars on 3 April. GM on 29 April rescheduled its earnings call but released its first quarter earnings on schedule that day. The company reported sales of 693,000 vehicles in the US in the first quarter, up by 17pc from the prior-year quarter. Electric vehicle (EV) sales rose by 94pc to 32,000 units in the same period. Global sales rose by 7pc to 1.44mn vehicles in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024. GM posted a $2.8bn profit in the first quarter, down by 7pc from a year earlier, which was partially attributed to higher costs. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
