Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro
Colombians took the streets of major cities and towns across the nation on Sunday to protest mainly against health, pension and labor changes, but potential power outages are also creating discontent.
Authorities estimated that about 250,000 Colombians marched in widespread protests, sparked by changes in healthcare. Congress in April had rejected President Gustavo Petro's proposals in the sector, and the government the next day seized the two largest private-sector health insurers. Protesting healthcare workers say the government did this to implement changes through a back channel.
"Regulatory noise and risk are likely to remain high amid announcements, proposals, and measures [that do not require congressional approval], aimed at changing the game's rules in strategic sectors," brokerage Credicorp Capital said.
Colombians also protested being on the verge of electricity rationing like that in neighboring Ecuador as hydroelectric reservoirs remain at record-low levels. Several unions and other associations have long warned the Petro administration to take measures to offset the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
Electricity distributors last year called for allowing bills for energy purchased on the spot market to be deferred and for loosening price index rules, among other proposals. The national business council sent at least three letters to the president on the issue. At least nine separate letters calling for preparation to prevent blackouts were sent to the president and ministers. Several actions were only recently implemented.
"There are no risk of electricity rationing in Colombia," former energy minister Irene Velez said in 2023. "We do not understand why some people are interested in generating panic."
Government weather forecasts also overestimated rainfall expected for March, leading hydroelectric plants to use more water in the reservoirs than they otherwise would have, said director of the thermoelectric generation association (Andeg) Alejandro Castaneda.
Reservoir levels stood at 29.5pc today, rising thanks to rains since 19 April, up from 28.75pc on 18 April. Electricity rationing is set to begin when reservoirs drop below 27pc, according to grid operator XM.
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Singapore's GCMD to test long-term biofuel shipping use
Singapore's GCMD to test long-term biofuel shipping use
Singapore, 9 May (Argus) — Singapore-based Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) and Japanese shipping firm NYK Line will trial the continuous use of a biofuel blend over six months. The study aims to evaluate the effects of the continuous use of B24 biofuel blend of 24pc fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) and 76pc of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) on a short-sea vehicle carrier that will call at multiple ports, allowing for the regular sampling and testing of fuels stored on the ship. Fame is a "promising" fuel alternative, the firms said, but added that there are concerns about the impact of its extended use on vessel operations. The study hence aims to study the long-term impact of biofuel usage on ship engine performance and fuel delivery system operations. It will also examine the total cost of ownership of using biofuel, including fuel costs and associated maintenance costs, as well as identify potential operating challenges and suggest mitigation strategies. B24 is the current blend of alternative marine fuel that is being used or trialled for bunkering at some key Asian ports like Singapore and Zhoushan. Its usage is expected to rise, especially because the industry is pushing for higher emission cuts from shipping. Participants in the shipping industry are exploring solutions to meet the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) net zero carbon emission target by 2050, with operational safety and costs surfacing as some of the key concerns of alternative fuel adoption . "This knowledge will empower stakeholders across the ecosystem, from shipowners and charterers to biofuels producers and regulators – to make more informed business and policy decisions," GCMD chief executive officer Lynn Loo said. "Ultimately, this pilot will lead to greater confidence for biofuels use at scale, accelerating progress towards decarbonising the maritime industry." Argus assessed B24 biofuel bunker prices at $744.25-759.25/t delivered on board (dob) Singapore on 8 May. By Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will attempt to reverse the decline in new gas developments by expediting projects, although a report has found it is unlikely to reverse an anticipated shortfall in southern states' supplies later this decade. Canberra's long-awaited Future Gas Strategy will form its future policy on the resource, following two years of uncertainty for the industrial sector. This follows the Labor party-led government's election in May 2022 and its dumping of the previous Liberal-National coalition administration's gas-fed recovery from Covid-19 policy, which emphasised bringing new supplies on line to drive down rising prices. Six principles have been outlined by the government — driving down emissions reductions to reach net zero emissions by 2050, making gas affordable for users during the transition, bringing new supplies on line, supporting a shift to "higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses", ensuring gas and power markets remain fit for purpose during the energy transition and maintaining Australia's status as a reliable trading partner for energy, including LNG. The report found that gas-fired power generation will likely provide grid firming as renewables replace older coal-fired plants. Peak daily gas demand could rise by a factor of two to three by 2043, according to projections, with gas-powered peaking generation labelled a "core component of the National Electricity Market to 2050 and beyond". But by the 2040s more alternatives to gas for peaking and firming are expected to become available. Supplies are forecast to dip significantly in the latter years of the decade, especially in gas-dependent southeast Australia, driven by the 86pc depletion of the region's producing fields. This reduced supplies will outpace a fall in demand , while rising demand is forecast because of the retirement of Western Australia's coal-fired power plants . The report found the causes of Australia's low exploration investment are "multifaceted", blaming the Covid-19 pandemic, difficulties with approvals processes , legal challenges, market interventions and a perceived decline in social licence. It added that international companies may focus on lower cost and lower risk fields in other countries. New sources Stricter enforcement of petroleum retention leases and domestic gas reservation policies are also likely to increase supplies, the report found, with term swap arrangements beneficial in increasing their certainty. Upwards pressure in transport costs is likely to result from increased piping of Queensland coal-bed methane gas to southern markets such as Victoria state, which could influence industrial users to relocate closer to gas fields in the future. Options canvassed to meet demand include more pipelines and processing plants and LNG import terminals , which would provide the fastest option but must overcome regulatory and commercial pressures, given the pricing of LNG would be higher than current domestic prices. Longer term supplies depend on the commerciality from unsanctioned projects such as Narrabri and in the Beetaloo and Surat basins, the report said. More supplies are needed to support exports under foundational LNG contracts, with an impact on the domestic market if Surat basin developments such as Atlas does not continue, the report said. Forecasts show LNG exporters have sufficient production from existing and committed facilities to meet forecast exports until 2027 if expected investments proceed. But beyond this new investment is required, especially for the 8.5mn t/yr Shell-operated Queensland-Curtis LNG at Gladstone. The Australian Energy Producers lobby, which represents upstream oil and gas businesses, said the strategy should now provide clear direction on national energy policy. But the Greens party, the main federal parliamentary group aside from Labor and the Liberal-National coalition, said any plans to continue gas extraction beyond 2050 will negate state and federal net zero 2050 climate targets. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Produção de veículos aumenta em abril
Produção de veículos aumenta em abril
Sao Paulo, 8 May (Argus) — A produção brasileira de veículos subiu 24pc em abril, em um cenário de vendas crescentes no mercado interno. A produção de veículos atingiu 222.115 unidades em abril, em comparação com 178.853 no mesmo mês em 2023, informou a Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (Anfavea). Em relação a março, a produção cresceu 13pc. No acumulado desde janeiro, houve alta de 6,3pc, para 760.114 unidades. Já as vendas saltaram 37pc em comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior. O licenciamento de veículos totalizou 220.840 unidades no mês, 17pc maior do que em março. O Brasil exportou cerca de 27.330 unidades em abril, queda de 19pc na base anual e alta de 16pc em relação ao mês anterior. "Temos pela frente alguns pontos de alerta, como a redução do ritmo de queda dos juros e os efeitos da calamidade no Rio Grande do Sul", disse o presidente da Anfavea, Márcio de Lima Leite. Leite acrescentou que as enchentes no estado já estão afetando fábricas de veículos, máquinas agrícolas e componentes usados por toda a cadeia automotiva. As chuvas já deixaram mais de 100 mortos, segundo a Defesa Civil do Rio Grande do Sul. Outras 128 pessoas estão desaparecidas e cerca de 164.000 perderam suas casas. Por Laura Guedes Participação de mercado de veículos leves por combustível % Abr-24 Abr-23 ± (pp) Gasolina 3,6 2,5 1,1 Elétricos 3,2 0,4 2,8 Híbridos 2,3 2,1 0,2 Híbridos Plug-in 1,7 0,7 1 Flex 79,5 83,4 3,9 Diesel 9,6 10,9 -1,3 Anfavea Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
London, 8 May (Argus) — Gas demand in the three Baltic states and Finland was up by 26pc on the year in April, although there were diverging trends in the different markets. Consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania totalled 3.56TWh, up from 2.82TWh a year earlier but down from 4.31TWh in March ( see data and download, graph ). That said, total demand was still well below the 2018-21 average for the month of 5.03TWh. Consumption was up on the year in all three Baltic countries, but Finnish demand edged down. This was the first month in which Finnish demand was lower on the year since April 2023. In contrast, Lithuanian consumption surged by nearly 50pc on the year, and was also higher than in February and March despite the end of the traditional heating season. Gas-fired power generation held broadly stable from a year earlier, totalling 305MW across the four countries compared with 301MW in April last year ( see gas-fired output table ). Output edged down in Estonia and Lithuania and dropped by 25MW in Finland, but this was offset by a 31MW increase on the year in Latvia. But, unlike in March, gas-fired output fell by 246MW, a large contributing factor to the lower gas demand on the month. Many combined heat and power plants will have switched off at around the end of March or mid-April as the traditional heating season came to a close, possibly driving the fall in gas-fired output. But renewables generation was also stronger in April than March, particularly in Finland, where wind output rose to 2.03GW from 1.63GW, while hydro also stepped up. In Lithuania, solar and waste-based production increased on the month. Demand was also stronger despite higher year-on-year minimum temperatures in all four capital cities, which may have curbed most residual heating demand after the end of the traditional heating season, although there was a brief cold snap towards the middle of the month that temporarily drove up demand ( see temperatures table ). With gas-fired power generation only marginally higher than a year earlier, and the warmer weather curbing residential demand, a possible uptick in industrial demand may have driven the aggregate rise in consumption. Average prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange were €33.30/MWh in April, up by 8pc on the month but 30pc lower than a year earlier, the exchange said. Prices increased in around the middle of April "due to the unexpectedly cold weather and the increased demand for gas in the market", but then fell again "as the weather warmed", GET Baltic chief executive Giedre Kurme said. There were a total of 2,400 transactions last month for a combined 642GWh of gas. Volumes sold on the Finnish market accounted for 42pc, the joint Latvian-Estonian market 33pc, and the remaining 25pc was sold in Lithuania. Klaipeda and Balticconnector to change flows The return of the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector pipeline and the start of maintenance at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in Lithuania will drive changed flow patterns this month. The Balticconector resumed commercial operations on 22 April after being off line since 8 October following a rupture caused by a dragging ship anchor . The reconnection of Finland to its southern neighbours has allowed for strong southward flows since 22 April, at an average of 62 GWh/d on 22 April-7 May. Some of this gas is probably being injected into storage, with the region's only facility at Incukalns switching to net injections on 23 April from net withdrawals of 7 GWh/d earlier in the month. Net injections have since averaged 46 GWh/d on 23 April-6 May, the latest data from EU transparency body GIE show. Stocks at Incukalns ended the withdrawal season on 30 April at 11.29TWh, the highest since at least 2014 and well above the previous high from last year of 9.03TWh. Large volumes of gas that had been stored over the previous summer for export to Finland over the winter were left stranded in Incukalns after the Balticconnector went off line. And the Klaipeda LNG terminal began maintenance on 1 May, which will last until 15 June, as the terminal's Independence floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) departed for dry-docking in Denmark. As a result, there were net exports from Poland to Lithuania for the first time since early November, at an average of 17 GWh/d on 1-7 May. Some of this gas could have been withdrawn from Ukrainian storage, with flows from Ukraine to Poland averaging 10 GWh/d over the same period. Lithuania's largest supplier Ignitis has said it stored some volumes in Ukraine. And flows at the Kiemenai border point with Latvia have also flipped towards Lithuania, averaging 11 GWh/d on 1-7 May, compared with net flows towards Latvia of 15 GWh/d in April. That said, there were no flows at the point on 6-26 April. By Brendan A'Hearn Finnish, Baltic average gas-fired power generation MW Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± Apr 23 ± Mar 24 Estonia 5 6 7 -1 -2 Latvia 49 18 215 31 -166 Lithuania 46 47 52 -1 -6 Finland 205 230 277 -25 -72 Total 305 301 551 4 -246 — Entso-E Daily average minimum temperature in FinBalt capitals °C Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± yr/yr ± m/m 2014-23 Apr avg Vilnius 5.22 3.83 0.93 1.39 4.29 2.63 Riga 5.01 4.98 1.93 0.03 3.08 3.65 Tallinn 2.00 1.46 -0.59 0.54 2.59 1.17 Helsinki 0.11 -0.45 -2.55 0.56 2.66 0.12 — Speedwell Finnish and Baltic April consumption by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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