US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain.
Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth.
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022.
By Bob Willis
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US delays return of SPR crude until 2026
US delays return of SPR crude until 2026
Washington, 9 May (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration has delayed by up to two years a requirement for oil companies and traders to return about 15.3mn bl of crude that have been loaned out from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Oil companies and traders were initially scheduled to return up to 19mn bl of crude to the SPR from June-September and to return up to 8mn bl of additional crude over the following year. The US Department of Energy (DOE) loaned out most of that crude in 2022 because of supply shortages related to the war in Ukraine and a temporary shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. DOE had loaned the crude using a mechanism called an "exchange," under which companies agree to return the crude to the SPR at a later date, along with an in-kind payment in exchange for the loan. But over the last two months, DOE has modified at least nine contracts with ExxonMobil, Shell and other companies that had borrowed the crude, delaying the return of about 15.3mn bl of the borrowed crude to the SPR until 2026, according to contract modifications Argus Media obtained after filing a request under the Freedom of Information Act. DOE said it delayed the return of the exchange crude in support of a separate SPR program, where it has directly purchased more than 27mn bl of crude that will be added the SPR's Big Hill storage site in Texas. That purchase program will inject about 3mn bl/month to the SPR through the first nine months of this year, and DOE last week restarted efforts to buy more crude for the SPR for delivery starting in October. "These actions strategically moved back exchange returns to take advantage of stable crude oil market windows to directly purchase oil at a good price for taxpayers, while having consistently available capacity to drawdown in the event of an emergency," DOE said. The nine contract modifications were signed between 26 March and 16 April, at a time when Nymex WTI spot prices briefly surged past $80/bl, to the highest price in more than five months. Delaying the return of the exchanges will effectively free up crude that would otherwise have been injected into the SPR in June-September, during the peak of the summer driving season. Nearly all of the revised contracts will delay the return of "all remaining exchange oil" until July-October 2026. Republicans have repeatedly attacked the administration's management of the SPR, which they argue is dangerously low after Biden ordered the emergency sale of 180mn bl of crude from the reserve in 2022 in response to the war in Ukraine. Republicans have pushed the administration to prioritize refilling the SPR, which is at about half of its design capacity with 367.2mn bl of crude, given the value the reserve could have in mitigating supply shortages. US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, in congressional testimony in March, said the administration was carrying out a plan to refill the SPR to "essentially where we would have been" if the emergency sales had never happened. DOE has already been able to cancel 140mn bl of congressionally mandated SPR sales and lined up the purchases of more than 30mn bl of crude. DOE also has said it "accelerated" the return of 4mn bl of crude exchanges. By Chris Knight SPR crude injections from exchanges mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vertex to pause Mobile renewable fuels refining
Vertex to pause Mobile renewable fuels refining
Houston, 9 May (Argus) — US specialty refiner Vertex plans to pause renewable fuels production at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery by the end of the year, returning a converted hydrocracker to produce what it says are wider-margin fossil fuel products. Vertex completed the conversion of the Mobile refinery and produced its first barrels of renewable diesel (RD) in May last year , having bought the refinery from Shell in 2022 . The company plans to use a third quarter turnaround to convert its renewable hydrocracker back to petroleum fuels production and to be up and running by the end of the year, after facing significant macro headwinds for renewable fuels, the company said on an earnings call today. The decision to return to full fossil fuels production is ultimately a near-term financial decision for the company which has an outstanding $196mn term loan, management said on an earnings call Thursday. The time line for a return to petroleum product production is contingent on permitting approvals and a successful completion of the turnaround and catalyst change in the unit. Vertex plans to sell its renewable feedstock inventories prior to the conversion. Vertex said it will retain the flexibility to return to renewable fuels processing should market conditions improve for the fuels, but does not believe headwinds to renewable markets will abate in at least the next year and a half. Conventional crude and other feedstock throughputs at the Mobile refinery were 64,000 b/d in the first quarter, down from 71,000 b/d in the same three months of 2023. Renewable throughputs were 4,000 b/d in the most recent quarter. The company expects 68,000-72,000 b/d of conventional crude and other feedstock throughputs in the second quarter and 2,000-4,000 b/d of renewable throughputs. Vertex reported a first quarter loss of $18mn compared to profits of $54mn in the first quarter of 2023. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Jakarta forum calls for exploring Ni price references
Jakarta forum calls for exploring Ni price references
Singapore, 9 May (Argus) — The global nickel market should explore different price references for nickel products to reduce price uncertainty, panellists said at the Third Nickel Producers, Processors and Buyers Conference in Jakarta, Indonesia. The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price, which is the global benchmark for class 1 nickel products, has been volatile for years now since LME suspended nickel trading in early March 2022, when prices surged above $100,000/t overnight. There were hopes late last year that prices would become more stable this year. But the price outlook has been uncertain since the turn of the year, with class 1 prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slumping to a four-year low of $15,877.50/t on 6 February on expectations of weak Chinese stainless steel and electric vehicle demand, before rebounding to a six-month high of $19,387.50/t on 26 April because of a delay in Indonesian RKAB mining right approvals and a reviewed forecast suggesting a significant smaller surplus for this year. There should be a new reference to counter price volatility, some conference participants said, while others suggested decoupling class 1 and 2 nickel prices. "[Prices are volatile now because] most prices are referenced to class 1, so maybe we can explore further with more price references, like class 2 nickel pig iron (NPI) and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)," Ray Gunara, president-director of Indonesian coal producer Harum Energy, said on 7 May. Harum Energy this year bought a majority stake in an Indonesian nickel processing and refining business. Most conference participants agreed that a different price reference would help maintain nickel price stability. "[NPI prices now are] difficult to predict because the class 1 [prices] are no longer linked to the product we are selling," Indonesia miner Trimegah Bangun Persada (Harita Nickel)'s president-director Roy Arman Arfandy said. Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer. The correlation between the monthly average of the LME class 1 cash official price and Argus ' NPI ex-works China index has fallen to close to 0.41 between January and May, from 0.91 in 2023. The correlation between the LME class 1 cash official price and Argus ' class 2 nickel benchmark Indonesian Nickel Index (INI) for 10-14pc NPI fob Indonesia was 0.52 between January and May. Market participants at the conference also expressed hope for more government support. "Currently there is an imbalance between local and foreign investments, so we are hoping that the government can give more support to local players like us," one producer said. Another conference participant said that they would aim to build a precursor cathode active material plant if given more support. Argus ' class 2 nickel INI for 10-14pc NPI fob Indonesia stood at $118.70/mtu on 3 May. The INI for 37pc MHP was at $142.80/mtu fob Indonesia and 70pc matte was at $148.90/mtu fob Indonesia on the same day. By Sheih Li Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s scrap export tender extends gains for May
Japan’s scrap export tender extends gains for May
Shanghai, 9 May (Argus) — The monthly export tender of Japanese scrap dealer co-operative Kanto Tetsugen continued its upwards trend in May, propelled by a favourable currency exchange rate. The May tender was concluded at ¥52,590/t fas for 20,000t of H2 scrap on 9 May, an increase of ¥1,503/t from April. This brought the fob price to an equivalent of ¥53,590/t or $344.60/t. Two cargoes were settled on 9 May, one of 15,000t and another of 5,000t, both at the same price. Some market participants anticipated the first would go to Bangladesh, as in recent months, while some market discussions were suggesting both were destined for Vietnam. The Vietnamese domestic steel market has shown more signs of a recovery since mid-April. The renewed increase in the export tender was mainly driven by the depreciation of the yen. Despite the significant increase in the tender result, the equivalent price in US dollars only rose by around $1/t compared with the previous month. The yen weakened to ¥155.70 to the dollar from ¥151.80 on 10 April. The Argus H2 fob Japan assessment was ¥50,800/t on 8 May, while the April monthly average was ¥50,757/t fob Japan. Tokyo Steel following the Kanto tender raised the collection price at its Utsunomiya plant by ¥1,000/t and maintained prices at other plants. The increase in the tender result and domestic prices in the Kanto region will raise suppliers' target levels for export business. But overseas buyers may require more time to absorb the gain and await further rises in steel sales prices, a market participant said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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