WTI goes global
Overview
WTI Midland is now the world’s largest freely traded grade of crude oil by output and volume. In December 2015, the US lifted a 40-year ban that had restricted exports of US crude overseas. Since the ban was lifted, export volumes have soared and US crude now makes its way to markets all over the world.
The meteoric rise of US crude on the global stage has made Permian basin crude WTI Midland the world’s most important grade and has put the US Gulf coast at the epicentre of global crude trade. Houston is the point of greatest optionality for crude oil. From Houston, crude can be refined in the world’s largest refining centre, moved domestically within the world’s largest oil demand hub, and exported to all corners of the globe. Price dictates these options, making the price at Houston the source of all key comparisons.
Light sweet WTI Midland is now firmly at the centre of price discovery for crude oil. It is a key component of Dated Brent and the global swing barrel, and European and Asian buyers are beginning to purchase crude on a WTI Houston basis. This crude has truly emerged as the heartbeat of the global crude system.
A global waterborne crude, underpinned by a liquid pipeline market
In most major markets, crude oil is generally transported by water. But the WTI Houston and Midland markets are different, with oil travelling first by pipeline in small, rateable transactions. The high volume of daily transactions means that there are many points of price discovery throughout the day. Our expert team of crude oil market reporters endeavour to capture it all.
Cargo markets by nature consist of a few, large single trades. But at the US Gulf coast, cargoes are priced at a differential to the pipeline market, so they benefit from the underlying price dynamics of the highly liquid and transparent US pipeline market.
For this reason, understanding the WTI supply chain and the drivers of its price formation is imperative for anyone buying, selling or trading crude oil across the globe.
WTI and Argus, a deeply rooted relationship
For two decades, Argus WTI assessments at Midland and Houston have been the standard physical benchmarks for US crude, as well as the settlement indexes for a robust derivatives market. These prices are assessed as differentials to the Argus WTI formula basis, based on the Nymex light sweet crude futures contract — one of the world’s most actively traded oil futures. They are the clear choice for trading companies seeking to manage WTI positions in the physical and paper markets.
Argus WTI Houston and Argus WTI Midland collectively form the basis of the world’s third-largest crude oil derivatives market, after Nymex light sweet and Ice Brent. The contracts are actively traded over the counter and cleared by oil brokers through exchanges such as CME and Ice.
Our rich, deep and trusted coverage of the US crude oil market is unrivalled. You need Argus to make confident business decisions.
Latest crude oil news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global crude oil industry.
Russia leads Opec+ output fall
Russia leads Opec+ output fall
London, 10 May (Argus) — Opec+ crude output by members subject to cuts fell by 440,000 b/d in April as Russia began implementing a fresh cut and Iraq and Kazakhstan curbed some of their overproduction. This saw the group's production fall to 34.11mn b/d, which was 140,000 b/d above quota, Argus estimates. Still, this was a marked improvement on the 230,000 b/d overproduction that it recorded in March. The lower production has not provided much support to oil prices, which have shed $5-8/bl in the past month. Several members of the alliance are implementing a new set of "voluntary" cuts that came into effect in January and, for now, run to the end of June. What Opec+ decides to do beyond this will probably be decided at a ministerial meeting in Vienna on 1 June, although the likelihood of a rollover has grown as oil prices have fallen. The big mover last month was Russia, whose output fell by 210,000 b/d to 9.29mn b/d. The drop is related to Russia's pledge to start phasing out an existing 500,000 b/d export cut commitment from April and replace it with a 471,000 b/d production cut by June. But the country remained 190,000 b/d above its new 9.1mn b/d target for April. And while the output fall shows Russia has made headway with its pledge to reduce production, sanctions on the country's oil industry and Ukrainian attacks on its refineries could affect its crude output in the months ahead. Iraq and Kazakhstan also reduced their output last month, while remaining well above target. Iraqi output fell by 40,000 b/d to 4.14mn b/d, mostly owing to lower crude use by the power sector. But this was still around 140,000 b/d above its target of 4mn b/d. Kazakhstan's output fell by 40,000 b/d to 1.54mn b/d — the second month in a row that its output has fallen. But it was also still around 70,000 b/d above its target of 1.47mn b/d. Compensation plans Iraq and Kazakhstan have each submitted plans to the Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee detailing how they intend to compensate for producing above target in the first four months of the year. As things stand, Iraq says it will produce 50,000 b/d below quota in May-September, 100,000 b/d below quota in October-November and 152,000 b/d below quota in December. Kazakhstan's compensation plan starts in May with an initial cut of 18,000 b/d below target. It would then stick to its target in June and July before implementing a cut of 131,000 b/d in August, no cut in September, 299,000 b/d in October, 40,000 b/d in November and no cut again in December. The two countries' plans are dependent on a final production figure for April from secondary sources — including Argus — and could be adjusted after it becomes available. Nigerian production recorded a large fall in April, dropping by 100,000 b/d to 1.4mn b/d, the lowest since 1.28mn b/d in August 2023. This left the country 100,000 b/d below its target of 1.5mn b/d. Production was relatively uneventful in the Mideast Gulf Opec+ contingent. Saudi Arabia's output fell by 30,000 b/d to 8.97mn b/d, the UAE's fell by 20,000 b/d to 2.93mn b/d, Kuwait's dropped by 20,000 b/d, while Bahrain's production increased by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. All four members were more or less within their targets. Iran, which like Libya and Venezuela is not bound by production targets, boosted its output by another 20,000 b/d to 3.3mn b/d — the highest since October 2018. The gains have come despite US sanctions and Washington's attempts to crack down on the country's oil trade. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Opec 9 21.32 21.54 21.22 0.10 Non-Opec 9 12.79 13.01 12.75 0.04 Total Opec 18 34.11 34.55 33.97 0.14 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.97 9.00 8.98 -0.01 Iraq 4.14 4.18 4.00 0.14 Kuwait 2.41 2.43 2.41 -0.00 UAE 2.93 2.95 2.91 0.02 Algeria 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.40 1.50 1.50 -0.10 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.28 0.25 0.28 0.00 Gabon 0.23 0.25 0.17 0.06 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 21.32 21.54 21.22 0.10 Iran 3.30 3.28 na na Libya 1.22 1.18 na na Venezuela 0.82 0.85 na na Total Opec 12‡ 26.66 26.85 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ‡Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Apr Mar* Apr target† ± target Russia 9.29 9.50 9.10 0.19 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.00 Azerbaijan 0.48 0.48 0.55 -0.07 Kazakhstan 1.54 1.58 1.47 0.07 Malaysia 0.35 0.35 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.19 0.16 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 -0.00 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.08 0.08 0.12 -0.04 Total non-Opec† 12.79 13.01 12.75 0.04 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
California fuel retailers fear regulatory scrutiny
California fuel retailers fear regulatory scrutiny
Houston, 10 May (Argus) — US fuel retailers like neither the regulatory precedent being set in California nor how the transition to renewable fuels is being managed, but companies sticking it out in the Golden State may reap rewards. California governor Gavin Newsom (D) in March last year signed SB X1-2 into law, allowing the California Energy Commission (CEC) to gather a broad range of profit data from refiners and set a maximum gross gasoline refining margin in an effort to avoid price spikes at the pump. "Unfortunately in California there is no shortage of bad policies that are being proposed," California Fuels and Convenience Alliance director Alessandra Magnasco said this week in a legislative affairs meeting at fuel retailer trade association SIGMA's conference in Austin, Texas. She worries that if the CEC fails to make progress in capping margins at the refiner level, they will look further downstream and regulate retailers. The alliance is opposed to what it sees as burdensome reporting requirements mandated by SBX 1-2 that were rushed through the legislature. "They are doing it in a way to leave out industry," Magnasco said. The CEC this week approved further reporting requirements for refiners in the state, mandating they file maintenance schedules with the commission at least 120 days in advance of planned work and within two business days after the start of unplanned shutdowns. "Every bad idea we face has generally been socialized in California first," David Fialkov, vice president of government affairs for US fuel retailer trade association NATSO, said during the SIGMA session. The increased adoption of renewable diesel in California is also causing headaches for fuel supply managers. "I can't even tell my customers which specific terminal might have traditional diesel versus renewable or if they're going to have both," said Deborah Neal, director of price risk management for fuel supplier World Kinect during another SIGMA panel discussion. The introduction of renewable diesel to the California market was done without a specific time line or transition plan, Neal said. "It's messy to say the least." The regulatory environment in California has also dampened appetite for mergers and acquisition activity in the eyes of bankers doing the deals. Gas station buyers who are looking to consolidate smaller assets are not looking at California if they are not already invested there, Matrix Capital Markets' co-head of downstream energy investment banking Cedric Fortemps said at SIGMA. "The operating and legal dynamics are completely different than other parts of the country," Fortemps said. But for companies already operating in California, there is limited out-of-state competition and high barriers to entry. Those companies are keen to grow their existing operations, Fortemps said. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nigeria offers 12 oil blocks in 2024 licensing round
Nigeria offers 12 oil blocks in 2024 licensing round
Lagos, 10 May (Argus) — Nigeria has offered 12 oil blocks in a new licensing round. It plans to complete it in tandem with a previous round for seven blocks that stalled following last year's change in government. The 12 blocks in the new round were carefully selected to attract international investors with financial resources and technical expertise and are spread across three geological terrains, upstream regulator NUPRC's chief executive Gbenga Komolafe said. Norwegian geophysical services company PGS, which is providing seismic data support for the licensing round, said two of the blocks on offer are onshore in the Niger delta, six are on the continental shelf and the other four are in deep water. The round will span nine months and conclude with ministerial consent and contracting in January 2025. Entry fees will be competitive as part of government measures to support the commercial viability of investments, according to Komolafe. "The era of front-loaded, huge signature bonuses is over," he said. Nigeria's oil minister Heineken Lokpobiri echoed Komolafe's point about minimal barriers to entry but noted that the round is designed to bind successful bidders to strict timelines, suiting investors that are "able to do exploration almost immediately". Lokpobiri also revealed that Nigeria plans to award licences for seven offshore blocks offered in a 2022 licensing round in tandem with the 2024 round. "The 19 oil blocks presented for bidding are strictly reserved for capable investors," he said. The round for the seven offshore blocks started in December 2022 and had been scheduled to be completed in May 2023. NUPRC said in April last year that the schedule had been pushed back to July because of concerns about concluding "the bid process before transition to the new government". President Bola Tinubu's administration took office on 29 May last year but progress on the 2022 licensing round stalled. Tinubu has set a target to raise Nigeria's crude production to 2.6mn b/d by 2027. The country's current target under the Opec+ agreement is just 1.5mn b/d. Nigeria started an international roadshow for the new licensing round in the US on 7 May in Houston, Texas, and the next stop is scheduled for Miami, Florida on 14 May. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US delays return of SPR crude until 2026
US delays return of SPR crude until 2026
Washington, 9 May (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration has delayed by up to two years a requirement for oil companies and traders to return about 15.3mn bl of crude that have been loaned out from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Oil companies and traders were initially scheduled to return up to 19mn bl of crude to the SPR from June-September and to return up to 8mn bl of additional crude over the following year. The US Department of Energy (DOE) loaned out most of that crude in 2022 because of supply shortages related to the war in Ukraine and a temporary shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. DOE had loaned the crude using a mechanism called an "exchange," under which companies agree to return the crude to the SPR at a later date, along with an in-kind payment in exchange for the loan. But over the last two months, DOE has modified at least nine contracts with ExxonMobil, Shell and other companies that had borrowed the crude, delaying the return of about 15.3mn bl of the borrowed crude to the SPR until 2026, according to contract modifications Argus Media obtained after filing a request under the Freedom of Information Act. DOE said it delayed the return of the exchange crude in support of a separate SPR program, where it has directly purchased more than 27mn bl of crude that will be added the SPR's Big Hill storage site in Texas. That purchase program will inject about 3mn bl/month to the SPR through the first nine months of this year, and DOE last week restarted efforts to buy more crude for the SPR for delivery starting in October. "These actions strategically moved back exchange returns to take advantage of stable crude oil market windows to directly purchase oil at a good price for taxpayers, while having consistently available capacity to drawdown in the event of an emergency," DOE said. The nine contract modifications were signed between 26 March and 16 April, at a time when Nymex WTI spot prices briefly surged past $80/bl, to the highest price in more than five months. Delaying the return of the exchanges will effectively free up crude that would otherwise have been injected into the SPR in June-September, during the peak of the summer driving season. Nearly all of the revised contracts will delay the return of "all remaining exchange oil" until July-October 2026. Republicans have repeatedly attacked the administration's management of the SPR, which they argue is dangerously low after Biden ordered the emergency sale of 180mn bl of crude from the reserve in 2022 in response to the war in Ukraine. Republicans have pushed the administration to prioritize refilling the SPR, which is at about half of its design capacity with 367.2mn bl of crude, given the value the reserve could have in mitigating supply shortages. US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, in congressional testimony in March, said the administration was carrying out a plan to refill the SPR to "essentially where we would have been" if the emergency sales had never happened. DOE has already been able to cancel 140mn bl of congressionally mandated SPR sales and lined up the purchases of more than 30mn bl of crude. DOE also has said it "accelerated" the return of 4mn bl of crude exchanges. By Chris Knight SPR crude injections from exchanges mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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Argus has reported waterborne cargo prices for WTI Midland for several years on both fob US Gulf coast and delivered-Europe and Asia bases. As the market has developed, so has our approach. In November 2022, we augmented our rolling price for fob Midland WTI by reporting three intramonth periods, to better reflect market structure and the way cargoes are traded.
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